Fantasy Football Preview: T.Y. Hilton – Make or Break
Fantasy Football Preview: T.Y. Hilton – Make or Break
Welcome to the first edition of Make or Break where we dive into the most polarizing players amongst our draft boards, specifying the case for and against these boom or bust professionals. These fantasy football preview columns will be released every few days to help prepare you for draft season and help gain some perspective on different, edgy players that could make or break your team. All segments of this series are both statistically and theoretically driven.
Things that qualify a player for a Make or Break column include:
- A change in team, surrounding teammates, or coaching.
- An increase in age.
- A rookie campaign.
- An injury concern.
- A sudden change in production.
T.Y. Hilton
This edition of Make or Break is focusing on the 2016 leader in receiving yards, T.Y. Hilton.
Hilton is heading into his 7th season in the NFL, under the same organization for his tenure, the Indianapolis Colts. Over his 6 years, Hilton has collected a total of 431 receptions, 6,827 yards, and 34 touchdowns. Hilton has been regarded as the number one target in the Colts offense powered by franchise quarterback Andrew Luck.
As for fantasy, Hilton has finished his past 5 seasons as the WR 5,12,19,22, and 24. This is including his league leading performance in 2016 with 1,448 yards.
The production of Hilton over the years has held him to the stature of a WR1 but a tempered WR1 at that. ESPN’s consistency ratings from 2015-2017 prove Hilton to have a 41.7% start percentage. This entails that he at least met owners’ expectations 41.7% of the time. This statistic lands Hilton just behind Doug Baldwin‘s 43.8% start percentage. That sounds good right? It does until an individual reads a little deeper and realizes that Hilton is also next to Amari Cooper‘s 39.6% over the past two years. That INCLUDES Cooper’s dumpster fire last year where he posted only FIVE startable games throughout the entire season. This is what makes Hilton such a polarizing player, he lies exactly on the cusp between the elite and the not-so-glorious. This perspective lands the Colts wide receiver with his own edition of Make or Break.
Fantasy Football Preview – The Case FOR T.Y. Hilton :
To clear the air, it is important to recognize the impressive body of work Hilton has created for himself. Acknowledge the fact that he has been considered an elite fantasy talent in the past and acknowledge that a T5 WR finish is still in the realm of possibilities for the 28-year-old. The ceiling of T.Y. Hilton is all subject to the following factors.
Age
This is more of a statistical insurance factor than a theory. This portion of the column is solely to remind one that Hilton is still in the prime of his career. The consensus break down age of a wide receiver is 30 years or older. Hilton is approaching this age but still falls within the category of wide receivers that are 29 or younger. So, as a prerequisite, do not worry about Hilton’s increasing age.
Coaching Situation
After the absolute madness that Patriots OC Josh McDaniels created, the Colts were left with shambles of different positional coaches and coordinators. The Colts thereby named the former Bills quarterback, Frank Reich, to be their new Head Coach. Reich, in his playing days, backed up hall of famer Jim Kelly for multiple years and bounced from team to team in Carolina, New York, and Detroit in his NFL Career.
The more important aspect of Reich is his coaching career in the NFL. He actually started under Tony Dungy in 2006 and built his resume by moving from a Coaching Intern to Quarterback Coach in 2009. As his career continued he moved to become a Wide Receivers coach for the Colts and Cardinals working with reception artists such as Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne along the way. Further down his timeline, Reich became the offensive coordinator for the former San Diego Chargers but was terminated in 2016 for the Chargers poor rushing performance that season. Landing at 31st out of 32 teams in rushing. Coach Reich later went on to being the OC for the Superbowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles ran multiple forms of run pass options. So, we could see T.Y. wide open downfield multiple times this season, similar to how we saw Alshon. The only difference is that T.Y. is much faster and more elusive at the point of attack near the line of scrimmage. Most would feel that the poor running game would hurt T.Y. and the Colts passing offense, but it could actually promote a more exciting brand of “running through the air” where talented pass catchers such as T.Y. or Jack Doyle rack up receptions and small chunks of yardage while driving down the field. This offensive strategy is displayed with powerhouse teams such as the Patriots.
Depth Chart
In reality, there is hardly anyone within the Indianapolis receiving corps to compete for targets with. On the WR depth chart for the Colts, there is a significant talent drop off from Hilton to the WR2 Ryan Grant. Hilton is clearly the most talented pass catcher within the offense. This leaves him to continue to be the number one and house as many targets as Andrew Luck decides to feed him.
The Case AGAINST T.Y. Hilton :
Hilton’s floor is entirely reliant on the production of the rest of the offense. Regardless of the Colts team success Hilton has always had a relatively decent floor. The bottom line doesn’t necessarily meet his average draft position so his bust potential is relative to the other values around his ADP. This list currently includes players like Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, and Doug Baldwin. The floor of T.Y. Hilton is all subject to the following factors.
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Andrew Luck Injury
Luck is essentially the determining factor of whether Hilton will succeed to his maximum capability. Consider Luck to be the ladder that guides Hilton to his ceiling. While Hilton can produce without Luck, the outcome is not as clean or thrilling compared to the Luck-Hilton light show. The two entered the league together in 2012 and have been electric throughout 70 games together. The pair have produced a total of 340 receptions, 5,231 yards, and 28 touchdowns. On an average per game basis, Hilton produces 4.9 receptions, 74.4 yards, and .4 touchdowns with Luck tossing him the duke. These numbers are still relatively proficient but definitely dampened when Hilton is running routes without Luck. In the 26 games without Luck, Hilton produces a per game average of 3.7 receptions, 61 yards, and .2 touchdowns. That is a 50% drop in touchdown production. Hilton already isn’t much of a touchdown hog, so any drop is damaging to his value. His consistency is what makes him a value in fantasy. This floor however is not worth his ADP.
“Indianapolis Colts.” NFL.com, National Football League, www.nfl.com/player/t.y.hilton/2532865/gamelogs?season=2012.
As for the Luck injury, “Luck looks to be right on track.” according to RotoWorld. Feel free to be skeptical of this assumption due to Luck’s recent injury history. It seems that Luck is continuing with the same process as last year but this year is a bit smoother. If Luck brings his game back to anything close to previously Hilton will be a confident buy in the 3rd or 4th round.
“Andrew Luck | Quarterback | #12.” JuJu Smith-Schuster – Pittsburgh Steelers – 2018 Player Profile – Rotoworld.com, www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6439/andrew-luck.
Target Competition
While T.Y. is undoubtedly the most talented pass catcher in Indianapolis, he may see fewer targets in an offense striving to spread the
ball around. This situation could potentially be similar to the situation in New Orleans where the emergence of Alvin Kamara and the stellar running game of the Saints left Michael Thomas with a dry first half of the season. The Colts running back committee consisting of Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines could steal targets away from the Wide Receiver position. Both backs are capable pass catchers and have proved their worth in college, flexing their abilities for the world to see in offenses like USF and NC State.
Let us not forget the legend that is Jack Doyle. The receiving TE should see multiple targets over the middle of the field and could prove to be a valuable red zone target for Luck. Promoting an even less likely chance of Hilton scoring a touchdown. Doyle will be partnered in the red zone with Ryan Grant who serves as a touchdown threat as well, leaving Hilton to be the third, if not fourth target around the end zone.
Next: Are the Cowboys a Fantasy Football Trap?
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