Why LeBron’s move to the Lakers does and does not make sense

There’s a fundamental ambivalence to yesterday’s news that LeBron James would sign a four-year deal with the Los Angeles Lakers, lots of “on the one hand, and also, on the other.”

To begin, it had been rumored for so long that LeBron would join the Lakers, when it finally happened, it felt preordained, spoken into existence, perhaps. But once one works past this initial reaction of “of course!” there’s a lot more about this move that doesn’t quite make one hundred percent sense to me, or to most NBA fans for that matter.

The thing is that many of the reasons it does make sense are the same ones it fails to. That is what makes LeBron’s move so strange: not the fact of it in itself, or the reasons that would compel him to, but that the reasons it makes sense are often the same exact ones it does not.

For example…

The Lakers’ young core

On the one hand: The Lakers have a promising group of young players in place, showing that being absolutely awful at basketball for five straight years does have its benefits if you’re competent at drafting. Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma – -and potentially Julius Randle, depending on how his own free agency goes — may not be talents to build a franchise around, but they have all shown great talent and potential, albeit erratically. Even without LeBron, this is a team that many would have expected to take a leap next year after not making the playoffs since 2013.

On the other: LeBron has always favored playing with veterans. Look at the group of older, nearing the end of their career folks that joined the Heat during LeBron’s tenure in Miami. Consider that young players such as Dion Waiters and Andrew Wiggins were shipped out for established veterans like J.R. Smith and Kevin Love. Part of this is necessity — when you have LeBron on your team, you try to win now — but it is also speaks to a known preference of James’.

So how will he like playing on a team with players a decade younger than him? Will he have the patience to work with them over the course of an 82-game season or will frustration at youthful mistakes and immaturity boil over? (And that’s not even factoring in the fact that the Lakers have also signed JaVale McGee and Lance Stephenson!) More importantly though, is the fact that LeBron is 33 years old and has a limited amount of seasons left to contend for a championship and has now joined a team whose best players don’t project to enter their prime until LeBron is near 40.

Of course, it’d be foolish to expect the Lakers roster to be the same on opening night as it is now — remember the Cavaliers didn’t add Kevin Love until almost two months after LeBron rejoined Cleveland, after all — but in its current form, LeBron and this young Lakers team is quite the odd couple.

The Lakers’ historical legacy

On the one hand: Apart from the equally prestigious Boston Celtics, no NBA team has a more storied past than the Lakers. They have appeared in the NBA Finals 31 teams since their 1947 founding as the Minneapolis Lakers, winning 16. Also, several of the best and most iconic players in NBA history have played for them, cementing their legacy in the process. By joining the Lakers, LeBron James is able to join the lineage of greats before him such as George Mikan, Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, and Shaquille O’Neal, giving him the opportunity to continue a legacy that stretches back to the very founding of the NBA.

On the other: In Cleveland, LeBron was more than admired as an athlete; he was beloved, the local kid who made good, the savior who brought the region its first championship in more than half a century. He has also been a great beacon of charitable giving in Akron, where he has donated millions in education efforts. In Los Angeles, LeBron will be adored by Lakers fans, certainly, but it’s unlikely he can ever become more than just another great player to have worn the purple and yellow. LeBron already has a better overall resume and legacy than almost any player to have ever suited up for the Lakers, but it’s hard to imagine how he could be a better Laker than any of them.

The Lakers might get Kawhi!

On the one hand: This is as close to a no brainer as it gets — if you can trade for Kawhi you do it. When healthy, he is one of the five best players in the league, an absolute star on both ends of the court, the rare player who is stellar at both ends of the court — simultaneously a sensational scorer and transformative defensive presence. Sure, the Lakers are loath to part with the young prospects they have and like so much, but it seems to me that none of them have a ceiling nearly as high as where Leonard is now. And even if they don’t trade for him imminently, there’s a solid chance they could recruit him in free agency next summer, pairing LeBron with possibly the best teammate he has ever had.

On the other: Well, actually, it’s no guarantee the Lakers can even get Kawhi; they just look like the most likely landing spot as of now. The Spurs have shown no inclination to actually trade Leonard yet, making the restoration of their relationship with him their highest priority. Also, the Lakers would be unwise to count on Kawhi signing with them next offseason if they fail to trade for him, especially considering how that strategy failed to pay off with Paul George.

There’s also the question of fit. Both LeBron and Kawhi play the same position, as does Brandon Ingram, who is perhaps the Lakers’ most promising prospect. While it’s a truism that you can never have enough capable wings in the modern NBA, all three of your best players being small forwards may be taking that to an untenable extreme. Kawhi is better than anyone else the Lakers could set their sights on at the moment, but is he really the player who would help them most?

LeBron signed a four-year deal

On the one hand: LeBron is 33 years old now, having accumulated more mileage on his body than any other player at his age in NBA history. He has been to eight consecutive Finals and even led the league in minutes played last season, the third time he’s done so in his career. So far, LeBron has proven to be pretty much immune to serious injuries, never missing more than thirteen games in a season, but even considering how well he takes care of his body, a decline is inevitable. By signing the longest deal possible, LeBron is able to earn some security that would not have been available if he had continued signing the short deals that he had throughout his second tenure with the Cavaliers. In this regard, it makes perfect sense for a player unsure of where his body will be after two or three more seasons.

On the other: More than any other active player, LeBron has been a living symbol of the power the player possesses. Of course, as the best player in the world for so long, LeBron is exceptional and therefore has much more power than the average player, but nevertheless, he has set an example that many have followed and will continue to in the future as they forge their own destiny in the league. Signing a four-year deal, though, seems like a slight abdication of that role. Firstly, it will keep him from benefiting from the expected increases to the salary cap over the coming years. While these will not be as massive as the 2016 cap spike, they will still be substantial enough for players signing new contracts to benefit.

Secondly, it gives the team a level of power they have not had during the last eight years of LeBron’s career, and represents a level of trust in the organization that he has not displayed over the last few years, maybe ever. Of course, not playing for a team run by Dan Gilbert is likely to engender more trust than the converse. Signing a longer term deal is not a dumb move; it’s merely far more cautious than we have come to expect from LeBron.

Geography

On the one hand: Having lived in both Akron and Southern California myself, I can personally attest to the fact that Southern California is a much more comfortable place to live during the basketball season. One does not have to worry about temperatures in the teens for weeks on end and snow is a foreign concept there unless you decide to partake on a winter climb of Mt. Baldy. Also, James’ family is reportedly excited to live near Los Angeles full time now — an area where he already owns two homes and has spent previous offseasons. There have also been reports that James’ oldest son, LeBron Jr., will be enrolling at Sierra Canyon, a private school that features this year’s number two overall pick, Marvin Bagley III, as alumni, a potentially very good choice for his own future.

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On the other: LeBron has dominated the Eastern Conference for eight consecutive years, keeping numerous would be Finals contenders on the outside looking in. And the Eastern Conference has consistently been weaker than the Western as well, making LeBron’s journey to the Finals much, much more difficult than it would have been had he stayed with the Cavaliers or joined a different Eastern Conference team. As pointed out by Micah Adams on Twitter, 13 of the top 14 players in the league according to ESPN’s NBARank project from last year now play in the Western Conference.

Additionally, 11 of the 15 All-NBA players from last season are now playing in the domineering Western Conference. By joining the Lakers, LeBron will not be the favorite to represent his conference in the NBA Finals this season for the first time in many, many years. If winning is James’ top priority, if he wants to end his career with more than three championships, joining this Lakers team, at least as presently constituted, is likely not the way to do it.