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Nylon Calculus: The Rockets in free agency and the MOREY score

By Scott LaForest

HOUSTON, TX - June 1: Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey is interviewed as the Rockets announce D'Antoni as their new head coach on June 1, 2016 at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TX - June 1: Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey is interviewed as the Rockets announce D'Antoni as their new head coach on June 1, 2016 at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The Houston Rockets have been one of the most successful franchises of the last few years. Last season, had the best regular season record and were one win away from a Finals berth. However, their style of play has earned them just as much attention.

The Rockets focus on only taking only the most efficient shots available which include 3-pointers, layups, and free throws.  They avoid the mid-range and long-range two-point shots like the plague. This scheme has obviously earned them a ton of success but also saw them miss 27 consecutive 3-pointers in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. This was an extreme counter-example but what makes the Rockets so special is not just their shot selection, but their ability to convert this shots at a high rate.

The Rockets GM, Daryl Morey, has received a lot of the credit for the implementation for this philosophy as proven by winning the NBA Executive of the Year. The team has not had a losing season since he took over.  He has brought in superstar players in James Harden and Chris Paul as well as quality role players in Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon. Morey has even been successful in drafting great young players such as Clint Capela.

In order to quantify the Rockets offensive philosophy, and their success in implementing it, I came up with a simple formula for incorporating the type of shots the Rockets emphasize. In honor of their successful GM and because I like creating acronyms I called this metric MOREY score. The Morey Offensive Rating and Efficiency Yield score, or MOREY score, relates three-pointers made (3PM), restricted area makes (RAM), free throw makes (FTM) and field goal attempts (FGA). The MOREY score formula is listed below.

The formula accounts for both the rate of 3PM and layups (RAM) as well as the values of each shot. We can think of the MOREY score as being made up of three different terms 3PM/FGA, RAM/FGA, and FTM/FGA.  These three terms multiplied by the value of each shot and added together give us the total MOREY score.  Each term rewards volume as well as efficiency. For example, the more 3-point shots taken will typically lead to a higher ratio but so will making more 3-pointers at a consistent rate. Typically efficient scorers get rewarded but so do volume shooters, as long as they are shooting 3s, layups, or free throws and making at least a few of them.

If the MOREY score is worth anything the Houston Rockets should be at the top of the league. To start let’s examine the league as a whole with data from stats.nba.com. The graph below shows each term of the MOREY score as well as the total. You can see the Rockets are by far the highest MOREY scored team with a total MOREY score of 1.12.

Some other interesting items here are that Utah is in second with a MOREY score of 1.08. Also, Cleveland had the second highest rate of 3-pointers made, nearly as high as the Rockets. The Warriors with the 3-point acumen of Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and Klay Thompson make most of their MOREY score from layups. They actually have the highest rate of restricted area makes.

With free agency coming up, now is a good time to look for players to fit the Rockets’ style. The Rockets have a lot of very important players entering free agency. The biggest piece was Chris Paul, who they were able to re-up. Even though he doesn’t score high on the MOREY score he does so many other things for the team. The Rockets were one game away from the Finals and if Paul didn’t get hurt, they probably would have been playing in the Finals instead of the Warriors. With the re-signing of Chris Paul, the Rockets have kept their most important free agent. However, Clint Capela and Trevor Ariza are two free agents that contributed on both ends of the court and Ariza is now a member of the Phoenix Suns.

The graph below shows the current Rockets roster as well as the top 30 MOREY scoring free agents.

If the Rockets can’t match an offer for Clint Capela, they do have a lot of other replacements. Obviously, DeAndre Jordan would have been a great option if not for the price tag. But other cheaper options might include someone like Alex Len as these players fit the offensive scheme perfectly. While not as good as Capela, Len can at least hold his own on the defensive end.

The loss of Ariza hurts the Rockets, especially on the defensive end. There are not really any other 3-and-D specialists available this year. Wayne Ellington is the perfect offensive replacement for Ariza but they would lose a lot defensively.

Next: Deep 3s, NBA range and college basketball

Losing Ariza hurts the Rockets especially against the Warriors. They lose a great perimeter defender as well as a guy that can knock down an open 3. In this year’s free agent market there does not seem to be a viable replacement for him. Resigning Capela is now that much more important as they will need to maintain some defensive prowess. Beating the Warriors or any other super team will be much more difficult without Ariza and Capela.

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