Fantasy Football: Jay Ajayi Could MAKE or BREAK Your Fantasy Season
Fantasy Football Preview: Jay Ajayi
Welcome to another edition of Make or Break where we dive into the most polarizing players amongst our draft boards, specifying the case for and against these boom or bust professionals. These fantasy football preview columns will be released every few days to help prepare you for draft season and help gain some perspective on different, edgy players that could make or break your team. All segments of this series are both statistically and theoretically driven with today’s focus on Eagles running back Jay Ajayi.
Things that qualify a player for a Make or Break column include:
- A change in team, surrounding teammates, or coaching.
- An increase in age.
- A rookie campaign.
- An injury concern.
- A sudden change in production.
The idea of this column is to provide you with the tools to make an educated prediction whether or not to invest in the selected player.
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Jay Ajayi
This edition of Make or Break is focusing on Eagles running back, Jay Ajayi.
Ajayi could be considered as one of the newcomers on this fierce Eagles squad, after being traded midseason from the Miami Dolphins. He went from being the featured back in Miami to being a third of the three-headed monster “running back by committee” in Philadelphia. The former Boise State back was accompanied by Legarrette Blount and Corey Clement from week 9 all the way to the Super Bowl where the Eagles claimed their first franchise title.
Aside from the NFL success, Ajayi has been quite the polarizing fantasy football player, as he has finished his three years with point totals such as: 35.7, 188.3, and 111.1 in standard leagues. In 2017 drafts, he was consistently being picked from rounds 2-4 and was viewed as a potential RB1 due to the overwhelming opportunity and potential production in a limited Miami Dolphins offense.
Ajayi has always been a product of opportunity and talent. Both of these factors are in question within today’s edition of Make or Break.
Fantasy Football – The Case FOR Jay Ajayi
Jay Ajayi has proved to be a fully capable fantasy running back. In 2016, Ajayi exploded onto the fantasy scene in weeks 5, 6, and 14. These three games would create history as he rushed for 200+ yards. This puts him amongst legendary rushers such as Tiki Barber, Earl Campbell, and O.J. Simpson as the only players to rush for 200+ yards three times in a season. So it is safe to say that Ajayi has flashed his talent to football fans before. The key however, is if he will meet his current average draft position (ADP) at the back of the third or early fourth round. Ajayi could possibly sneak his way into RB1 territory this year on a previously hot Eagles offense.
The Departure of Legarrette Blount
The phrase “opportunity over talent” couldn’t possibly reign more true in this situation. While Ajayi is still a talented RB, the opportunity presented from Legarrette Blount leaving Philadelphia could implicate a massive increase in production for J Train. Blount is leaving 173 carries behind in Philly, and if these carries fall to Ajayi, we could quite possibly see a 250+ carry season. This would stat out to give him a 16 game total of 1,050 rushing yards minimum. This is based on his 2017 yards per carry statistic which was a decent 4.2.
Ajayi has previously been adequate as a workhorse. Once holding a snap percentage of 71% in the 2017 Miami offense, Ajayi has seen a brutes workload. This changed however, when moving to the Eagles, where he was in on a little more than a third of the snaps. Ajayi has shown to be more efficient with his carries in Philadelphia’s offense than in Miami. In Philly, Ajayi has posted a stunning 5.8 yards per carry. This is beyond efficient. If Jay can keep this efficiency with a larger workload we are looking at a running back of Alvin Kamara‘s stature.
If we see any sort of increase for in Ajayi’s snap percentage, we could potentially see Ajayi take over the Eagles backfield and dominate the fantasy gridiron. With carries similar to Miami and efficiency staying the same, Jay could be a steal in the fourth.
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Play Good Pay Good
While Ajayi has had a change in scenery, his contract implications do not change. Ajayi is on his fourth and final year under contract with the Eagles and is sure to try to impress the organization with an unforgettable final year performance. This theory has been proven time and time again and should be no different for Ajayi. The self-proclaimed expectations should be no shorter than a 1,000 yard / 10 touchdown season for Ajayi in order to be resigned and paid well. Players on contract years always tend to set the bar a little higher. Ajayi will be running with a purpose this year.
The theory lives on in fantasy that running backs in contract years continue to milk their best efforts to force a team’s hand. This was true in 2017 for running backs like Le’Veon Bell, Jerick McKinnon, and Legarrette Blount. Why not a talented back like Ajayi for 2018?
Team Success
Being on a Superbowl caliber team couldn’t do anything but help Ajayi on his road to fantasy glory. The Eagles went 13-3 last year and were running the ball well. The Eagles rushed for 4.5 yards per attempt and ran the ball nearly 500 times with 473 attempts. 2115 yards rushing is proof that the offense is capable of working on the ground. The Eagles offensive line is built between rocks Lane Johnson and Jason Peters while the middle is anchored by Jason Kelce.
It’s safe to say that Wentz and the Eagles backfield will have some of the best protection and holes to run through this season, even if the offense regresses.
Fantasy Football – The Case AGAINST Jay Ajayi
While Ajayi has his upside like every player, he has his downside as well. This is what ultimately will determine his floor this season with the Eagles and will determine whether he BOOMS or BUSTS. The chance that Ajayi becomes a fantasy stud and the chance that he becomes a fantasy dud is exactly the same. Jay Ajayi could deter your team from fantasy success because of these factors.
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The Emergence of Corey Clement
The young Corey Clement could certainly trump Ajayi as the most talented back in the Eagles offense. We saw this in Superbowl 52 where Clement took 4 receptions for 100 yards and an amazing touchdown. While Clement hasn’t been much of a between the tackles runner, his versatility in the passing game could take away from Ajayi’s volume and will most likely steal 3rd down opportunities from Ajayi. This is not to say that Clement isn’t a talented runner. He posted 4.36 yards per carry as a rookie last year. So, Doug Pederson could certainly work Clement in on any down he pleases. The once undrafted rookie is a force that has potential to take over this Eagles backfield.
A Healthy Darren Sproles
Darren Sproles is returning to the Eagles squad from injury. While I don’t believe Sproles should see a hefty workload, any downs that Ajayi isn’t in on hurt his fantasy value. The main concern would be that Doug Pederson plays the veteran because he has been a crucial part of the offense for years now. Sproles is essentially the grandfather of Eagles running backs, who always maintains his role as a pass catcher and manages to steal away enough value from the other backs to make the Eagles a true running back by committee. It’s a volume related issue. A Ryan Mathews workload isn’t out of the realm of possibilities for Ajayi.
Injury
Ajayi has had a history of knee issues over his career. This knee, in fact, was one reason why he was drafted so late by the Dolphins. A torn ACL tempered his draft value and caused him to drop to a later round. The grade three ACL tear resulted in a total reconstruction of Ajayi’s knee. Ajayi has been on the injury report at least once every year since. With issues such as pulled hamstrings, broken ribs, a sprained AC joint, and a concussion, the Eagles running back is no stranger to pain. All of these injuries seemed to be direct results of a large workload. Ajayi needs to hold up this year to return value.
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