Who’s the better max gamble, Andrew Wiggins or Devin Booker?

With Devin Booker having just signed a five-year, $158 million max contract, two brave writers debate whether that’s a better deal than Andrew Wiggins’ five-year, $148 million max.

Bryan Toporek (@btoporek): Listen, Jeremy and I hate each other. So, what better way to burn our Twitter mentions to the ground than to debate who we’d rather sign to a max extension: Devin Booker or Andrew Wiggins?

On Saturday, Booker signed his five-year, $158 million max contract extension with the Phoenix Suns, according to Yahoo Sports’ Shams Charania. When news of the agreement leaked earlier in the week, it was met with some degree of skepticism from Basketball Twitter, which in turn led to the five remaining Suns fans on the planet getting triggered like an angry hornet’s nest.

So, Jeremy: Do you think Booker lives up to that type of deal? And who would you rather have signed to his respective five-year max: Booker at a projected $158 million, or Wiggins at $148 million?

Jeremy Lambert (@jeremylambert88): Hate is a very strong word. I prefer to think Bryan and I have an Embiid-Westbrook relationship. I take a charge, he calls it a dunk like he did something, and I still win. That’s a spoiler for how this discussion is about to go.

To answer the first question, no, Booker won’t live up to the deal. I like Booker and love anyone who can score at all three levels like he can. He started to become more of a playmaker last season as well. But he can’t defend a lick, and his scoring averages are inflated because the Suns let him take all the shots once they are eliminated from playoff contention.

He averaged four more shots per game last season after the All-Star break. Post-All-Star break Devin Booker might be the greatest scorer alive. But pre-All-Star break Devin Booker is a good second option on a fringe playoff team. They’re paying him to be a superstar. He’s not at that level.

I’d rather have Wiggins at $10 million less because I can use that $10 million to sign two DeMarcus Cousins’.

*mic drop*

BT: Huh. I thought a high-volume, low-efficiency stat-padder would be right up your alley.

I get the skepticism surrounding Booker’s chances of living up to his max deal, particularly due to his defense. He ranked 101st out of 111 qualified shooting guards last season in defensive real plus-minus, according to ESPN.com, behind such luminaries as J.J. Redick, CJ McCollum and Nick Young. If he remains that much of a net minus on defense moving forward, he’ll have to provide a James Harden-esque output on offense to come anywhere close to providing positive value on his max deal.

Then again, look at the Suns roster last year. After they traded Eric Bledsoe three games into the regular season, it turned into the Booker and T.J. Warren show, with little to no supporting cast. Troy Daniels, an undrafted 26-year-old journeyman, finished fourth on the team in total points! If a player is partially a product of his environment, Booker was fighting an uphill battle from day one.

Adding Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Trevor Ariza and Elie Okobo to the mix should help alleviate his burden on both ends of the court, which in turn should lead to increased efficiency. And as you noted, he’s becoming increasingly more comfortable as a playmaker, which the Suns will desperately need if they don’t round out their point guard depth chart.

Even if Booker doesn’t improve defensively, he’s proved to have a rock-solid offensive floor, which I think makes him a safer max player than Wiggins. Other than your Double Boogie dream, what makes you lean toward Wiggins on a max over Booker?

JL: *mic pick-up*

Hey, let’s leave Carmelo Anthony out of this.

People are going to say Wiggins has already failed to live up to his contract based on last season. He promised to improved and work hard, but didn’t. The joke is on them. Wiggins made $7.5 million last season. THIS is the season where Wiggins makes that leap and lives up to the max deal. He spent all of last year learning from Jimmy Butler, soaking in that knowledge, and then immediately forgetting it when he got home to play Fortnite.

I don’t blame Wiggins for the shortcomings of the Timberwolves last season. I blame Tom Thibodeau. He went out and acquired a more polished version of Wiggins, pushing the 23-year-old down the pecking order.

Figuring out where Wiggins stands in the league right now feels nearly impossible. At first glance, he’s similar to Booker. He may have more defensive tools than Booker, but he’s shown no real ability to defend at this level. Booker is a better shooter, that point is pretty undebatable. However, people forget just how good Wiggins was two years ago when he was 1A alongside Karl-Anthony Towns. His numbers are comparable to 2017-18 Booker despite a lower usage rate.

Booker has benefited from being on terrible teams. Wiggins has had to adapt his game to better players. It hasn’t always been pretty. For Minnesota fans, it’s been extremely frustrating. But it’s still Thibodeau’s fault for thinking Butler and Derrick Rose were the right fit alongside him.

BT: Well, I can’t argue with the #BlameThibs argument. But until he inevitably gets fired next summer, is anything going to change for Wiggins this upcoming season? If anything, it seems as though the Timberwolves could be on the brink of an implosion, which hardly inspires confidence about their outlook in 2018-19.

You raise a fair point about Booker and Wiggins filling different roles this past season, so I won’t hold Wiggins’ decline in per-game output against him. But… what does Wiggins do well, exactly? He was a capable secondary option next to Towns in 2016-17, but he’s never been an efficient scorer. He has one more turnover (684) than assist (683) throughout his four-year career, and his rebounding average (4.1 per game) is mediocre for a 6’8″ wing. Wiggins has the physical gifts to be a lockdown defender, but he has yet to make good on that potential, too.

If Wiggins takes after Butler and rounds out his game, I’ll feel far less nervous about his max deal moving forward. But Booker’s growth as a passer and 3-point shooter since his NBA debut is far more encouraging at the moment. And here’s a fun fact: Booker is one of only four players in NBA history to average at least 24 points, four rebounds and four assists per game prior to his age-22 season, joining LeBron James (twice), Michael Jordan and Tracy McGrady. Decent company, eh?

Where do you think Wiggins needs to improve the most to begin living up to his max deal?

JL: I hear his stealth game is rather weak.

The biggest improvement Wiggins can make is in his work ethic. The talent is there. I think we both agree on that. He has the length and athleticism to be a good defender. His jumper is inconsistent but it’s not broken. He’s a good finisher around the rim (67 percent in restricted area last season). I’d probably give up on him averaging anything more than 2.5 assists a game, at least while Thibs is there. Maybe a different coach can get more out of him, but Wiggins has never shown great vision or passing IQ.

However, none of it matters if he’s not willing to put the work in. His lack of attention to detail and poor effort is going to run Jimmy Butler out of town in one season. He’s been gifted an opportunity to learn from one of the best two-way players in the league. Take advantage of that. Maybe when Wiggins sees his overall rating in 2K this year, that will motivate him to put the work in and become better.

You put Booker in elite company with LeBron, Jordan, and McGrady. The difference between Booker and those three is that those guys made the playoffs when they were 21 and averaging those numbers. The Suns were the worst offensive and defensive team in the league. Those numbers sound impressive and look awesome on highlights. But if NBA Twitter has taught us anything, it’s that numbers are meaningless unless it leads to wins.

Now that Booker has more pieces around him, where do you see his game going next season? Can the Suns win if he’s still taking nearly 20 shots a game?

BT: Maybe the T-Wolves just need to implement a teamwide moratorium on Fortnite and they’ll win a title next year?

I do think you can build a winning team around Booker as an offensive focal point, although the Suns’ win-loss record in 2018-19 isn’t likely to reflect that. As you noted, Phoenix was the NBA’s worst team on both ends of the floor last season, so expectations should remain in check this year. If anything, it’s more important for new head coach Igor Kokoskov to begin laying the seeds for a winning culture by developing an offensive and defensive identity.

As for Booker specifically, well, the Suns’ lack of a dependable point guard leads me to believe he’ll absorb even more ball-handling and shot-creation duties this season. Having legitimate 3-point threats such as Ariza, Bridges and Okobo should make his life easier in that regard, as opponents can’t pack the paint like they could against Elfrid Payton and Josh Jackson last season. With additional floor-spacers and a go-to low-post scorer in Ayton, Booker should have little trouble setting a new high-water mark in terms of shooting efficiency, although like with Wiggins last season, I wouldn’t be surprised if his per-game output declines a bit.

I totally agree that motor is Wiggins’ biggest concern. If he adopts even 40 percent of Butler’s maniacal approach, he’s going to be a monster. And seeing as he just turned 23 in February, it’s still premature to give up on him entirely, even if his step back last season raises serious concerns about him moving forward. Frankly, that’s what makes this debate between Wiggins and Booker so fascinating.

Because of his two-way upside, Wiggins theoretically has a higher ceiling than Booker, since it’s difficult to imagine Booker ever developing into a plus defender. But circling back to the original question, I have more confidence in Booker reaching his ceiling (even if it’s lower) than I do in Wiggins reaching his, which is why I’d feel more comfortable maxing out the former.

Any final rebuttals before we nuke our mentions?

JL: The more I pored through the numbers, the more I realized just how disappointing Wiggins has been. I’m with you on Booker being the more likely of the two to reach his ceiling. I think it helps that everyone understands that it’s Booker’s team and he’s making strides to improve his game. Meanwhile, Wiggins is the third option, and it’s a bad sign that his work ethic is being questioned this early in his career. Few guys shed that label once it’s put on them.

This season feels like a make-or-break year for Wiggins. His max contract has kicked in and there are no more excuses. Minnesota still has some roster issues to address. Like, what the heck is going on with Butler? But whether Butler stays or goes, Wiggins needs to step up and show some type of improvements to his game.

I have fewer doubts about Booker. As you said, the roster around him is better this year, and his strides as a playmaker should have Suns fans feeling confident in him.

I’m still rocking with Wiggins due to his ceiling. He said he would put the work in to earn his max contract. If there’s one thing we know about Canadians, it’s that they don’t lie. I trust Wiggins.

Next: Why DeMarcus Cousins to the Warriors isn't that unprecedented

BT: Another sitdown with Glen Taylor should solve everything, right? You do raise a fair point about Canadians, though.

Honestly, I don’t think there’s a *right* answer here. Both contracts are admitted gambles. Booker may have lower variance, but Wiggins’ ceiling arguably justifies the risk, too. Maybe the Timberwolves should just trade him back to Cleveland for Kevin Love and let him go HAM as the No. 1 option on a rebuilding team?

I’ve already staked out territory on “The Suns Aren’t That Far Away From Being Interesting Again” Island, so I’ll ride or die with Booker for now. But I do hope both he and Wiggins ultimately live up to their max deals. It’ll only make the NBA that much better… until they somehow join the Warriors, anyway.