Is the Kawhi Leonard trade a slam dunk for the Toronto Raptors?

Was the Kawhi Leonard deal an obvious win for the Toronto Raptors? Paul Centopani thinks so, but Ti Windisch is a little more skeptical.

Ti Windisch: Okay. Kawhi Leonard was just traded to the Toronto Raptors for a package centered around DeMar DeRozan. It’s kind of a big deal, some might say. Danny Green also went to the Raptors, and Jakob Poeltl and a protected first round pick went to San Antonio in the deal.

I’m not convinced this was actually a complete steal for Toronto, although NBA Twitter seems pretty sure it was a slam dunk for Masai Ujiri. Personally, I think DeRozan is better than he’s generally given credit for being and that Kawhi is a big-time risk who isn’t going to contribute as much to the Raps as he did to the Spurs before last season. Paul here disagrees with me, so let’s have ourselves a good old fashioned debate. Paul, why am I wrong?

Paul Centopani: Oh yes, it finally happened. The Spurs moved a malcontented Kawhi and took back a package to placate their continued desire of competing in the West. DeRozan’s a four-time all-star and Yak Poeltl is… big, I guess. I’m sure Coach Pop didn’t want to oversee a rebuild, but how good will you ultimately be with your two best players taking turns hoisting 18-footers all game?

The Raptors, on the other hand, saw an opportunity to improve and took it. They’ve showed time and time again – even during their best season in franchise history – a team headed by the duumvirate of DeRozan and Kyle Lowry has a very defined ceiling. That ceiling being second-round exits.

Ti, while I respect your opinion and contrarian stance against the majority of NBA Twitter, the Raptors now employ the best player in the East. It’s always been a star-driven league and Toronto just got starrier.

TW: This kind of reminds me of all the hubbub about DeMarcus Cousins signing in Golden State, mostly because it seems like a lot of folks equate peak Boogie (which we saw over the last few seasons) with whatever it is he’ll look like when he returns from his torn Achilles.

Kawhi’s injury might not be as serious as an Achilles, and he’s younger than Cousins is, but we haven’t really seen him play since Zaza Pachulia stepped on his foot and swung the Warriors/Spurs series back in 2017. If the Raptors are going to get the version of Kawhi Leonard that I believe had a strong MVP case from the 2016-17 regular season, then they definitely won. I’m just not ready to say they got that guy at this point in time.

There are a lot of “if”s involved for the Raptors here. The trade is a good one if Kawhi comes back healthy, if he can convinced to stay beyond next season, hell, if he shows up in the first place. The Spurs, on the other hand, got a walking bucket who will certainly show up and give his all in San Antonio. He and LaMarcus Aldridge will blot out the sun between just inside the three-point line and the rim with long twos, sure, but with Gregg Popovich at the helm the Spurs will probably end up a hell of a good team.

Can the Raptors say the same if Kawhi struggles, or is grumpy, or doesn’t show up at all?

PC: Pop, as always, will put everyone in optimal places to succeed and pull the best from DeRozan. For that I have no doubts. Pop could take chicken s*** and turn it into chicken salad.

Toronto obviously took a calculated risk here before concluding the juice was worth the squeeze. To see how a similar situation worked out, we can just look at the recent past at the perfect example: Paul George. Like Leonard, George expressed dissatisfaction with his ‘big fish in a small pond’ status and had delusions of Southern California grandeur. Then, to everyone’s shock, George re-upped with Oklahoma City this summer.

Now, “sources say” Kawhi hates the cold and doesn’t want to play in Toronto, but I think that’s an overblown load of hooey. I’ll let someone way smarter than me explain all the reasons why:

On top of everything else, it’s a contract year.

If he re-signs with the Raptors past this season, fantastic. They upgraded from a top-15ish player to potential top-5. If he leaves, Masai Ujiri made the sneaky-brilliant shadow move of opening up their cap sheet by getting out from under a huge contract.

So let me answer your question with another question: Do you want to pay DeMar DeRozan $83 million over the next three seasons?

TW: I do, and I can say that without worrying I’m only saying it for the purposes of this argument. DeRozan is not the most efficient fellow, or the best defender in the world, but he’s a great person and a legitimate offensive star. DeRozan is putting butts in seats and trying his damn hardest to win my team games.

The sad truth of the matter is there are only a handful of legitimate superstars to be had. The teams that don’t have them can either tank to try and get one, or compete and hope to position themselves to add a disgruntled one (much as Toronto did in getting Kawhi!) If I’m running a team and I’m interested in keeping my job doing so, the second path is the one I want to go down. So I’ll take DeMar DeRozan, and do my best to build around him and position myself in such a way so I can get better later. Hopefully without trading my guy DeMar in a few years.

I guess the reality of this situation might be more boring than one side being right or one being wrong–could this be one of those moves that works out for both sides? That would mark another reason it’s comparable to the PG-13 trade.

PC: This trade definitely has more nuance than the absolutes of one winner and one loser. The fact of the matter is two very good teams just swapped two very good players and both will reap some sort of benefit.

But that’s way too rational and I’m here to take you down in this debate.

So I’ll blast off with efficiency analytics, courtesy of Ian Levy’s latest work. In 2016-17 – the last time Kawhi had meaningful stats – he finished in the 93^rd percentile as the ball handler in pick-and-roll situations and in the 94^th percentile as a spot-up shooter. Last year, DeRozan was in the 78^th and 53^rd percentiles in those things.

Coupling those jumps in efficiency with Kawhi possibly being the best defender in the league and LeBron heading West all add up to Toronto having their best-ever shot at making the Finals.

Next: Is the Spurs mystique gone for good? Was it ever real?

TW: Fair points! And it’s hard to disagree with both you AND Ian! I think our splitting point is on what Kawhi the Raptors are getting.

I’m hesitant to believe he’s going to be the player he was in 2016-17. If he is that guy, even just for a season before he skeddadles, it’s probably a good move. I guess only time will tell which of us ends up being right.

PC: Oh yeah, I brought in the big guns. The trade will hinge on health and the ripple effects will be felt well past this season. On that, we can agree. I’m just excited to see it all play out.