With Carmelo Anthony gone the Thunder offense is free to reinvent itself. Or at least a part of itself. What do the possibilities look like?
Carmelo Anthony is gone in Oklahoma City. With him will go his 16.2 points per game. When framed like that, it sounds like a difficult thing to replace. “No one else on the team can score 16 points a game.” There’s some truth to the statement. The Thunder doesn’t have one singular player who can score an extra 16 points a game. That’s a partial lie. If they asked Russell Westbrook, “Score 16 more points a game.” He’d do it. It might take him the same 15 shots a game it took Anthony. But he’d do it.
Of course, they don’t need one player to make up Anthony’s difference. A team effort can get it done.
First, a look at what Anthony brought to the Thunder offense.
With Anthony in the starting lineup, the Thunder had three players who could create his shot off the dribble. In this clip, Anthony goes the opposite way of a screen by Steven Adams, creates enough space to get his shot off, and cans the mid-range jumper.
This clip is vintage Melo. A little jab stepping, some post engagement, and a turnaround jumper.
Finally, Anthony was excellent at hanging back behind the 3-point line. When Westbrook drives, he often takes two defenders with him. Anthony would get plenty of trailing 3 opportunities thanks to Westbrook’s gravity.
Anthony was asked to play multiple roles on the Thunder. We saw less New York Melo, where the ball would stop and jab steps would rule, and more Olympic Melo, where he would space the floor and open up opportunities for others. It wasn’t always pretty. He shot a career-low 40 percent from the field. 44 percent of his shots were catch-and-shoot opportunities. He shot 37.2 percent from 3 on catch-and-shoot attempts, but just 30.9 percent on open (closest defender 4-6 feet) 3s.
The toughest part of watching Anthony’s game was seeing him age before our eyes. His first step wasn’t as quick and he didn’t have the same lift at the rim.
Losing Anthony means two things. On the minus side, Oklahoma City loses a shot creator and maker. Having guys who can get their own shot and make tough shots is a luxury for any team.
On the plus side, it means not having to placate Anthony. He’s someone who needs touches and shots to be effective. He took 15 shots per game this past season and needed his post-up opportunities, as ill-timed as some of them may have been. No Melo means the ball is in the hands of Westbrook and George more often.
It also means other guys get a chance to step up offensively.
The first name that will come to everyone’s mind will be Jerami Grant. He came alive for the Thunder at the end of the season and into the postseason. Isolation isn’t necessarily his game, but he’s quick enough to get by defenders and a strong finisher at the rim, shooting 68 percent in the restricted area.
Don’t be surprised to see Grant get more one-on-one chances against slower centers and power forwards this season.
Bonus tip for any 2K players out there: Grant is OP in isolation against backup centers and power forwards. You don’t need fancy dribble moves. Just put your head down and drive by guys who don’t have the speed and athleticism to prevent him getting to the rim. And because his tendency is to dunk more often than not, he’ll typically slam it home.
Grant isn’t the floor spacer that Anthony was at the four. And a lineup of Westbrook, Andre Roberson, George, Grant, and Adams doesn’t offer much room to maneuver on the offensive end. If that lineup takes the floor, it will be mainly for defensive purposes. Offensively, expect a steady diet of Westbrook and Adams pick-and-rolls.
The Westbrook-Adams duo is the strongest part of the Thunder offense. Adams was the roll man 24 percent of the time for the Thunder, resulting in 1.22 points-per-possession. He created the second most screen assists in the league at 4.8 per game. The Thunder offense works best when it begins with an Adams screen.
There’s nothing fancy about this play. Westbrook threads the ball between two defenders, Adams hits a little bunny in the paint.
But that’s what the Thunder need more of in 2017-18.
Here’s a play the Thunder can replicate without Anthony. It leads to an alley-oop for Adams, who is freed up thanks to a screen by George.
Grant, Westbrook, and Adams would remain the same. Swap Anthony with George on the perimeter, forcing the defender to make the same difficult decision on whether or not to tag the roll man or leave a shooter open. And replace George with Roberson, who can set the same screen.
Westbrook and Adams have a chemistry that can only be formed with repetition. The more those two play off each other, the better.
The underrated part of Adams’ game is his ability in the post. He posted up 11.2 percent of the time this past season, scoring 1.08 points-per-possession. That put him fifth in the league among players posting up more than 10 percent of the time.
He’s not only strong, he has a quick spin move used to beat defenders.
Here, he shows his growth as a passer.
If Westbrook finally decides he’s going to move off the ball, it would open up a lot of things for the Thunder offense. The last clip shows Adams finding Anthony in the corner as the defender crashes down off the roll. Obviously, Anthony will be gone. Which leads me to the last person set to benefit the most from Anthony’s departure: Patrick Patterson.
Patterson was set to be the Thunder starting power forward prior to the trade for Anthony. The starting lineup featuring Patterson at the four in place of Anthony played a grand total of eight minutes last season. The duo of Adams and Patterson shared the court for just 248 minutes. For reference, Adams and Grant played 451 minutes together.
Patterson was brought in for his defensive ability, unselfishness, and outside shooting. He was misused the majority of 2017-18. Health had a bit to do with it as offseason knee surgery put him behind in the rotation.
2Pat shot 38 percent from 3 last season, granted, on far fewer attempts than Anthony. Still, his ability to catch-and-shoot from behind the line will provide the OKC offense with similar spacing.
This play looks like it’s going nowhere. Westbrook is trapped after the screen, Buddy Hield takes away Abrines, Grant is tagged. Westbrook makes the right play, but throws a high pass. Patterson comes down with it, sets, and fires.
Forty-three percent of Patterson’s shots came from the corner. He tickled the twine 39 percent of the time. When he was used in the offense, it was typically parking himself in the corner and waiting for the ball. Maybe not the best use of him, but something defenses had to respect.
Here, Patterson shows he can trail similar to Anthony.
Along with his ability to space the floor, Patterson provides screening that Anthony simply didn’t do. Here’s a hard screen by Patterson that frees Westbrook.
Westbrook and Serge Ibaka pick-and-pops used to be a staple of the Thunder offense. Westbrook developed a similar chemistry with Enes Kanter when he was in Oklahoma City. There was very little pick-and-pop action in OKC last season, largely due to Westbrook and Patterson not playing enough minutes together. Patterson badly misses this shot, but it’s an example of what we should see more of this season.
There was little to no pick-and-pop action between Westbrook and Anthony last season. Anthony didn’t come to OKC to set hard screens. Anthony is a Hall of Fame scorer. But he’s also a high maintenance scorer. He needs 14 to 16 shots a game, he needs his post-ups, and he will stop the ball.
By inserting Patterson into the starting lineup, Oklahoma City can get back to what they did in 2015-16, Billy Donovan’s first season on the bench. The Thunder had an offensive rating of 113.1 that season.
No, George is not Kevin Durant and Patterson is not Ibaka, but they bring similar attributes to the table. George can score at all three levels and Patterson is a reliable shooter. Plus, factor in the growth and chemistry of Adams and Roberson with Westbrook. Adams has made tremendous strides in the post and as a passer while Roberson has become an effective screener and cutter.
Amazingly, Sam Presti was able to get a player in return for Anthony. Dennis Schroder, the enigmatic former Hawks point guard, is heading to Oklahoma City. He’s reportedly accepted his bench role (who me?) and is excited to join a winning franchise.
The addition of Schroder will allow OKC to play a similar style when Westbrook sits. Schroder can run an up-tempo offense, create out of the pick-and-roll and jack up the same bad shots. According to Synergy, he was sixth in creating, assisting, or scoring in the pick-and-roll. Westbrook was fifth. A Nerlens Noel-Schroder pick-and-roll against opposing second units could be trouble.
The Thunder offense will rarely look as spectacular as the beautiful game Spurs. Donovan will preach playing with pace and moving with the ball, but we’ve never seen a Westbrook-led group swing the ball with any consistency. Oftentimes, Westbrook’s pace is too fast for his own good.
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Despite their lack of passes per possession, the Thunder offense can be efficient. Replacing Anthony with role players who won’t stall the offense and more Steven Adams is a recipe for success. The addition of Schroder gives the Thunder a willing bench scorer who can torch opponents in a variety of ways.
All stats provided by NBA.com/Stats unless noted otherwise.