Where do the 76ers rank in a post-LeBron East?

With the start of the NBA season several months away and many teams still in the process of building out their rosters, not much can be definitively known about what will happen next year. Just about the only things that seem certain are the Golden State Warriors will once again enter the year as overwhelming favorites to repeat as NBA champions; and that for the first time since 2010, the Eastern Conference will not be represented by a LeBron James-led team in the NBA Finals.

The power vacuum LeBron leaves behind in the East is a large one. In trudging to the Finals eight consecutive times, LeBron’s Heat and Cavaliers teams amassed a ridiculous 24-0 record in Eastern Conference playoff series from 2011 through 2018 — winning 96 of 123 games along the way and yielding a 0.780 winning percentage that is essentially the equivalent of putting together a season and a half’s worth of 64-win basketball, but during the playoffs. (The Cleveland years were even more dominant, with the Cavs winning 48 of their 59 Eastern Conference playoff games during LeBron’s second stint in town.)

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It’s fitting that with the King abdicating his Eastern Conference throne, there is no sole team that looks like the obvious bet to ascend in his place. Instead, there’s a trio of teams from the only Eastern Conference division in which LeBron himself has never played (the Atlantic) that stand ready to battle it out for conference supremacy. Because of several dynamics at play, the upcoming season seems at least somewhat likely to be the only one in which the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers duke it out (mostly) alone for the right to represent the East in the Finals.

With that in mind, now is as good a time as any to dig into what each of these three teams has going for them, and what they have working against them in the race to the top of the East. We began last week by covering the Raptors, continued earlier this week with the Celtics, and move forward today with the Sixers.

What the Sixers have going for them

Perhaps the most notable thing the Sixers have working in their favor is their overwhelming size. Point guard Ben Simmons is listed at 6-foot-10, and he has a 7-foot wingspan. Robert Covington is 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan. Dario Saric is 6-foot-10 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan. And Joel Embiid is 7-foot with a 7-foot-6 wingspan. J.J. Redick is only 6-foot-4, but when he’s surrounded by all that size, it matters less that he’s a smidge shorter than the average shooting guard.

Consider this — during the 2017-18 regular season, Simmons defended players who were, on average, 3.19 inches shorter than him, per an analysis of SportVU matchup data conducted by Nylon Calculus’ Krishna Narsu. Among the 396 players who played at least 500 defensive possessions, that was the fifth-largest size differential in the league.

And Simmons wasn’t the only Sixer who consistently defended much shorter players. Covington was 2.83 inches (13th) taller than the players he defended, on average, while Embiid 1.71 inches (53rd) taller than his marks and Saric was 1.61 inches (66th) taller than his. That’s four of Philly’s five starters ranking in the top-20 percent of the league in terms of how much taller they were than the players they defended.

It’s no wonder the Sixers ranked fourth in the NBA in deflections, second in loose-ball recoveries, eighth in defensive rebound rate and first in opponent’s points in the paint per game. All that helped them cobble together the third-best defense in the NBA when measured by points allowed per 100 possessions.

But the Sixers’ defense isn’t just stingy; it’s also extremely flexible, which is key in the modern NBA. Simmons was one of just seven players in the league who defended four different positions on at least 15 percent of his defensive possessions, per Narsu’s dashboard. Again, he was not the only Sixers starter who filled this criteria. Covington did it as well. (So did Justin Anderson, but he has since been traded.)

Mixing and matching with Simmons and Covington allows the Sixers to always hide Redick on the opponent’s weakest perimeter player, while also giving them the ability to smother the lead ball-handler with a plus defender at all times throughout the game. With those two at the point of attack and Embiid protecting the paint, the Sixers are sure to be wildly tough to score on once again. (Among the 92 players who contested at least three shots per game at the rim, per NBA.com, Embiid held opponents to the fourth-worst field goal percentage on those attempts. He is among the handful of most intimidating at-rim forces in the game.)

By bringing back much of the same roster, the Sixers should be able to maintain their status among the best defensive teams in basketball next season—at least so long as Embiid is healthy. Adding Wilson Chandler should make Philly’s defense even more versatile, while bringing in rookie Zhaire Smith affords them another hounding backcourt defended to keep the pressure on opposing ball-handlers.

Beyond the size and flexibility of the players on their roster, the Sixers also have the advantage of possessing a ton of star power, which can often overwhelm the opposition. Embiid is one of the handful of best centers in the game, a near-lock to be an All-NBA guy as long as he stays on the floor. Simmons garnered some All-NBA votes of his own as a rookie and should routinely be in the mix for those honors on an annual basis moving forward. Not many teams have even one player as good as either Simmons or Embiid, let alone a duo with as much talent as those two combined.

There’s also still potential for the Sixers to unearth another star. Markelle Fultz’s lost rookie season was one of the weirdest NBA stories in years, but if his offseason work with famed trainer Drew Hanlen successfully rebuilds his jumper—look out. Fultz showed during the time he was actually on the floor last season he still possesses the elite burst that helped turn him into the top overall prospect in the 2017 draft, and showcased strong floor vision as both a scorer and distributor as well. If he can figure out a way to score from outside the immediate area of the rim, he will become a much more dangerous player.

Fultz will have a lot of eyes on him just by virtue of being a former No. 1 overall pick who became a traveling circus last season, but there’s not a ton of pressure on him to turn into a team-carrying star because the Sixers already have two of those. His merely being a microwave scorer off the bench will provide the Sixers an extra element they didn’t have last season, and if he becomes more, that’s all the better for them.

What the Sixers have working against them

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Sixers have some injury issues. Embiid missed two full seasons before he ever played in a game, then played 786 minutes during his debut season and while he lasted much longer last year, he still didn’t make it through the season unscathed. Simmons missed his entire rookie campaign with an injury. Fultz either did or did not have a messed up shoulder that destroyed his jumper. Even Redick missed a bunch of games last season, and he’s not getting any younger.

On the floor, the Sixers do have a few relative weaknesses. Unsurprisingly, given their youth, they are an extremely turnover-prone team. They gave the ball away on 16.1 percent of their offensive possessions last season, per NBA.com, the highest mark in the league. Because they run so much of their offense through Embiid and Simmons in the post, they also don’t have the most efficient shot-distribution in the league. Where the first few seasons the Sixers played under Brett Brown saw the team rank near the top of the league in Moreyball Rate (the percentage of shots attempted from the restricted area and 3-point territory), they dropped into the bottom half of the league a year ago.

Due to Simmons’ total lack of range on his shot, the Sixers also can’t really run what passes for a traditional offense in the modern NBA. Because everyone just ducks under every ball screen set for Simmons, the Sixers rarely run pick-and-rolls for their point guard, which is the staple action of most teams in the league these days. Instead, Philly cycles through a seemingly endless series of dribble hand-offs, flares, cross-screens, duck-ins and reversals. It’s a lot of hard work. The Sixers led the NBA in passes last season, throwing an additional 15 passes per game more than the next-closest team. Some of that was due to their admirable commitment to ball and player movement; but some of it was also because it could often be a struggle for them to find an open look in the half-court. Unless Simmons miraculously adds deep range on his shot this offseason, we can expect similar issues next year. And if he ever shares the court with Fultz, they could be magnified.

On the other end, the Sixers’ playoff loss to the Celtics exposed a minor weakness in their defense. Al Horford dominated his matchup with Embiid, drawing the young big man to the perimeter with his shooting range and then beating him off the dribble when Embiid had to change directions multiple times in quick succession. There aren’t many centers in the league as versatile as Horford so it’s not a major concern Embiid could be victimized in this way. There’s also a chance that particular weakness gets mitigated if Embiid is actually allowed to participate in practice and thus gets himself into better shape.