In an alternate world without the Big 3, there would be 50 percent more winners and a bit more parity at the top of the NASCAR standings.
It’s impossible to tell the story of the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series season without most of it being devoted to the Big 3 of Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. Together, the three former series champions have won 17 of the 23 races so far, with Harvick’s total outpacing the entire rest of the field. There have been just eight different winners in all, which is flirting with a pace that would produce the least winning drivers since the schedule went to 36 races in 2001.
(As a side note the only comparable season in recent memory was 2008, when that year’s “Big 3” of Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson racked up 24 wins between them.)
Barring something completely unforeseen, Harvick, Kyle Busch and Truex will remain the story all the way to Homestead, and it’s hard to imagine this particular year in racing without them … but we went ahead and gave it a shot.
In our alternate NASCAR world, the Big 3 decided to take the year off and race in Formula 1 or something. We’re not sure about the details, but they did not compete. Their seats were not filled, so we apologize to Christopher Bell, Cole Custer and whoever would replace Truex.
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To take them out of the equation, we did it the simplest way possible, which is to simply remove them from the field in every race. We bumped every driver up a spot, both in the final race finishing order and for each individual stage so we could calculate stage points too. Yes, there was a spreadsheet involved, and yes, this still took a fair amount of time. We’re also not math wizards, so we could have messed these up by a point here or there.
Regardless, we came up with an interesting snapshot of what the NASCAR Cup Series season would look like as we head to the Bristol night race. First, we’ll go race by race:
2018 NASCAR Cup Series results – Non-Big 3 alternate world
- Daytona 500 – Winner: Austin Dillon; Stage winners: Bubba Wallace, Justin Marks
- Atlanta – Winner: Brad Keselowski; Stage winners: Keselowski, Clint Bowyer
- Las Vegas – Winner: Kyle Larson; Stage winners: Larson, Ryan Blaney
- ISM (Phoenix) – Winner: Chase Elliott; Stage winners: Kurt Busch, Kyle Larson
- Auto Club (California) – Winner: Kyle Larson (2); Stage winners: Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano
- Martinsville – Winner: Clint Bowyer; Stage winners: Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney
- Texas – Winner: Jamie McMurray; Stage winner: Kurt Busch x 2
- Bristol – Winner: Kyle Larson (3); Stage winners: Brad Keselowski x 2
- Richmond – Winner: Chase Elliott (2); Stage winners: Joey Logano x 2
- Talladega – Winner: Joey Logano; Stage winners: Brad Keselowski, Paul Menard
- Dover – Winner: Clint Bowyer (2); Stage winner: Brad Keselowski x 2
- Kansas – Winner: Joey Logano (2); Stage winners: Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney
- Charlotte – Winner: Denny Hamlin; Stage winners: Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones
- Pocono I – Winner: Kyle Larson (4); Stage winner: Clint Bowyer x 2
- Michigan I – Winner: Clint Bowyer (3); Stage winners: Bowyer, Ryan Blaney
- Sonoma – Winner: Clint Bowyer (4); Stage winners: Denny Hamlin, AJ Allmendinger
- Chicagoland – Winner: Kyle Larson (5); Stage winners: Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola
- Daytona (summer) – Winner: Erik Jones; Stage winner: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. x2
- Kentucky – Winner: Ryan Blaney; Stage winner: Blaney x 2
- New Hampshire – Winner: Aric Almirola; Stage winner: Chase Elliott x 2
- Pocono II – Winner: Daniel Suarez; Stage winner: Chase Elliott x 2
- Watkins Glen – Winner: Chase Elliott (3); Stage winners: Elliott, Jimmie Johnson
- Michigan II – Winner: Brad Keselowski (2); Stage winner: Ryan Blaney x 2
You want more parity? You’ve got it. The non-Big 3 world has 12 winners in 23 races, including a surprise in Jamie McMurray (who finished third to two of the Big 3 at Texas) and an additional first-time winner in Daniel Suarez. Both Denny Hamlin and Aric Almirola would be locked into the playoffs with a victory as well.
What’s really striking, though, is Kyle Larson going from winless to leading the NASCAR Cup Series in wins. Even though he hasn’t been nearly as consistent as last year — and the Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 probably can be thanked for much of that — this shows how often it’s taken one of the Big 3 to beat him. Brad Keselowski would also be much happier about his season with two wins in the bank already.
Let’s check out the standings too, first the traditional way:
2018 NASCAR Cup Series standings (by points) – Non-Big 3 alternate world
- Clint Bowyer, 862 points, 4 wins
- Brad Keselowski, -15, 2 wins
- Kurt Busch, -25
- Kyle Larson, -48, 5 wins
- Chase Elliott, -66, 3 wins
- Joey Logano, -73, 2 wins
- Denny Hamlin, -79, 1 win
- Aric Almirola, -119, 1 win
- Ryan Blaney, -128, 1 win
- Erik Jones, -167, 1 win
- Jimmie Johnson, -180
- Alex Bowman, -246
- Daniel Suarez, -285, 1 win
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr., -329
- Paul Menard, -333
- Austin Dillon, -347, 1 win
- Jamie McMurray, -359, 1 win
- Ryan Newman -365
- William Byron, -379
- AJ Allmendinger, -405
- Chris Buescher, -425
- Kasey Kahne, -455
- Bubba Wallace, -457
- David Ragan, -468
- Michael McDowell, -484
The absence of the Big 3 is also really striking here, as in real life, only Harvick is within 100 points of leader Kyle Busch. Our alternate world has six drivers closer than that to Bowyer, and Kurt Busch hanging tough among the multiple-race winners even though he has no victories.
The playoff field would also feature a really tight battle for the final spot, as you can see here:
2018 NASCAR Cup Series playoff standings – Non-Big 3 alternate world
- Kyle Larson, 5 wins, 29 playoff points
- Clint Bowyer, 4 wins, 24 playoff points
- Chase Elliott, 3 wins, 20 playoff points
- Brad Keselowski, 2 wins, 17 playoff points
- Joey Logano, 2 wins, 13 playoff points
- Ryan Blaney, 1 win, 14 playoff points
- Denny Hamlin, 1 win, 7 playoff points
- Aric Almirola, 1 win, 6 playoff points
- Erik Jones, 1 win, 6 playoff points
- Daniel Suarez, 1 win, 5 playoff points
- Austin Dillon, 1 win, 5 playoff points
- Jamie McMurray, 1 win, 5 playoff points
- Kurt Busch
- Jimmie Johnson
- Alex Bowman
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 4 points above cutoff
The driver chasing Stenhouse over the final few regular season races would be Paul Menard. Ryan Newman also wouldn’t be completely out of it as he’d be just 36 points behind Stenhouse.
Despite being without Harvick and Kyle Busch, respectively, Stewart-Haas Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing would be just fine, with all of their cars comfortably in the playoffs. JGR might feel like a longshot to contend for a title, though, with no one in the top five of the postseason seedings unless they win more races before Las Vegas.
Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske would be sitting a lot prettier too, but there’s one big team who wouldn’t be all that much better off …
What about Hendrick Motorsports?
Despite clearing out the three fastest cars, Hendrick wouldn’t be in a much different situation than the one they currently find themselves in. Elliott is a legit title contender in the non-Big 3 world, rather than in the next tier of drivers down as he is in real life.
Everyone else is about the same. Johnson and Bowman are in the playoff field and in no real danger of not making it unless there are multiple surprise victors in the last three regular season races. But they have no real shot at the championship, and William Byron remains on the outside looking in.
More than one study has found that while fans might say they long for more parity, interest in any sport goes up when there are dominant teams doing their thing. If that’s true for NASCAR, the 2018 season should be pulling in fans to see which one of the Big 3 eventually emerged with the crown. And if that doesn’t sound like your jam, you can always retreat to our little thought exercise here and dream of how your favorite driver would be doing if only three really great teams weren’t hogging the spotlight.