The fate of Furniture Row Racing is the key to all of NASCAR Silly Season

Even more than usual, the future of one particular car holds the key that will unlock almost every other move for the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series season.

Every year, NASCAR Silly Season is like a line of toppling dominoes, with moves made by one race team affecting others on down the line. A notable example from last year was Stewart-Haas Racing bidding farewell to Danica Patrick, which led to Aric Almirola moving to the No. 10 Ford and bringing Smithfield with him, which in turn opened up the Richard Petty Motorsports Chevy for Bubba Wallace. Yet that pales in terms of the impact that Furniture Row Racing is going to have on the offseason to come.

By now, most NASCAR fans know why the team from Denver, home to defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Martin Truex Jr., is the subject of so much speculation. In July, the team announced that it would no longer have the backing of major sponsor 5-hour Energy after this season, a company that supported Truex for many of his races in 2017 and 2018. Team owner Barney Visser, who genuinely loves racing, has said all the right things about the team continuing on, even as he admitted it wouldn’t make much sense (or dollars, to be more precise) for Furniture Row itself to sponsor Turex’s Toyota as it has done plenty of times in the past.

In the meantime, there was at least one discussion, with GMS Racing, about selling the team’s racing assets. That in itself suggests that while Visser’s heart might want to keep going, his head could ultimately overrule it.

If Furniture Row Racing calls it quits, Truex would be the hottest free agent NASCAR has seen in years. While he trails Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch in wins this season, he’s really the only other driver besides those two with more than a puncher’s chance to win the Cup Series championship. It’s not out of the question that Truex will hit the open market with two consecutive titles on his resume, and that’s something that never happens.

Should that actually happen, every team with an opening or even the possibility of one would have to give some serious thought to courting Truex. The most popular current rumor is that he would end up at Joe Gibbs Racing, a team with which Furniture Row Racing is already closely aligned, and that JGR would jettison Daniel Suarez — who joined the team just last year, mind you — to a satellite team (and a new one in Leavine Family Racing). The thought of JGR becoming even more of a superteam with both Kyle Busch and Truex onboard would be an unpleasant thought for the rest of the garage.

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So, too, would Truex joining Stewart-Haas Racing, which has been noncommittal about bringing Kurt Busch back to the 41 for the second straight year. Though Toyota would likely do all it could not to let Truex escape to a Ford organization, having Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer and Truex in the same shop would give SHR three of the four drivers who have won multiple races in 2018 so far, so it’s something that team would also have to at least consider.

Those are just two scenarios, because you have to figure other teams would at least feel Truex out if he was in need of a ride. Would Richard Childress Racing (which fielded three cars until this year) or Roush Fenway Racing go all-in to lure him in order to get back some of their lost luster? It’s hard to imagine they wouldn’t at least try.

Wherever Truex goes, the ripple effect would be real. Moving to Joe Gibbs Racing would mean not only reportedly displacing Suarez, but also ensuring that star in the making Christopher Bell does indeed stay in the XFINITY Series for another go-round — unless, of course, another team that misses out on Truex goes hard after Bell instead. Cole Custer is waiting for an opportunity at SHR, one that he might not get if Truex ends up in the 41.

The same is true in reverse if Furniture Row Racing is able to keep going. Without Truex as an option, several teams have youth or experience decisions facing them. Stewart-Haas, for example, has been linked to Matt Kenseth. Were he to make a move, Roush Fenway Racing would then have to consider whether it wants to bring back Trevor Bayne or hand its No. 6 Ford over to someone else, probably another young driver.

It’s possible to keep going like this for a while, but the point is clear. The number of dominoes may not be different in this particular NASCAR Silly Season, but the size of the biggest one is. Until the one that says Furniture Row Racing on it falls, everything else is just standing in line, waiting for the impact.