Fantasy Football 2018: Using Projections to Beat the Odds

Yesterday I premiered a weekly feature where I make informed predictions on NFL games and player prop bets using my analysis and expert fantasy football projections. Using data I’ve collected via various resources I was able to make informed decisions on the over/under and player prop bets for the Texans @ Patriots and the Jaguars @ Giants.

On Sunday, 5 of my 6 week 1 predictions were correct. I’ll take that any day. I was confident all along. Trust me, I didn’t expect anyone else to be. I’d be reading the article thinking, who’s even is this guy ?

I get it. I’m grateful to anyone who takes the time to read my articles. If enough of you do, maybe I can get out of the Steelworkers Union and focus on something I actually love to do. Sometimes in life everything seems to be a maybe. Maybe, these predictions have legs. Maybe we’re on to something here. Maybe someone out there takes my advice and maybe wins a lil walk around money, you never know.

Let’s get into the Monday Night action. The usual week 1 double-header is back again for 2018. Jets rookie Sam Darnold makes his NFL debut in Detroit against the Lions and the Rams make the quick trip to Oakland to play the Raiders fresh off their head scratching off-season. I’m going to focus on the Jets – Lions game.

Expert projections compiled from 5 major fantasy football sites provided by Fantasypros.com

Jets @ Lions

4:10pm (PST) / 7:10pm (EST)

Quarterbacks:

Sam Darnold: 21 completions/ 233 yards/ 1 TD (12.5 points)
Matt Stafford: 38 completions/ 276 yards/ 2 TD (18.6)

Wide Receivers:

Robbie Anderson: 4.5 rec/ 61 yards/ 0.3 TD (12.2 points)
Quincy Enunwa: 3.7 rec/ 47 yards/ 0.2 TD (9.6)
Marvin Jones: 4.1 rec/62 yards/ 0.6 TD (9.8)
Golden Tate: 5.9 rec/ 65 yards/ 0.5 TD (9.6)

Kickers:

Jason Myers: 2.1XP/ 1.2 FG (5.7 points)
Matt Prater: 2.6 XP/ 2 FG (8.6)

Defense:

Jets: 2.1 sacks/ 1.5 takeaways/ 341.4 yds allowed/ 24.2 PA

Lions: 2.6 sacks/ 1.8 takeaways/ 310.5 yds allowed/ 18.4 PA

More from FanSided

Over/ Under 45.5 points:

Right off the bat take into account Stafford’s 2 projected TD’s. Notice that Jones and Tate have been given a 60% and 50% chance of scoring respectively. Let’s call that 1 TD between the two WR’s. The rest of Detroit’s offensive skill players do not combine for 1 projected receiving TD. Where is Stafford getting the other passing TD from? We know projections are no guarantee but they often line up very closely with what odds makers set player prop bets at. I researched Matt Stafford’s career splits all time regarding passing TD’s at home, passing TD’s in September, passing TD’s on Monday night and passing TD’s in late games. Stafford averages 1.65 passing TD’s per game when you consider those splits. His 2 TD projection is a little on the high side. Instead of him accounting for 12 points (6×2), I have Stafford accounting for 10 points, 1 TD= 6 points, .65 TD= 3.9 points, let’s say 4 points. (6+4=10)
Detroit’s will score more than 1 TD, I believe it comes on the ground, special teams or on Defense.
Kicker Matt Prater is projected to kick 2.6 extra points and 2 field goals. Stafford’s less than projected TD total drops Prater from 2.6 XP’s to 2 XP’s. (2 XP’s x 1 + 2 FG’s x 2= 7) Prater’s new point projection is 7 points.
Factor in the much improved, underrated Jets secondary which features two above average starting CB’s. Highly rated, FA signing Trumaine Johnson and former 6th overall pick Morris Claiborne. The anchor of the secondary is rising star Jamal Adams who can line up all over the field and Stafford not throwing 2 TD’s is definitely plausible.
I have Detroit scoring 17 points.
That leaves 28.5 points needed by the Jets and their QB making his NFL debut.
If the Jets follow the projections to a T then Darnold should throw for 1 TD and somewhere else they will pick up 1 more TD.
Kicker Jason Myers is projected to kick 2 XP’s (2 points) and 1.2 FG’s (3.6 points). That’s good for 5 points total. Adding the Jets 2 TD’s + Myers’ 5 points and I have the Jets scoring 17 points on the high-end.
The Jets 17 and the Lions 17 is 34 total points which gives us a TD + FG cushion to still stay under 45.5 total points.

Prediction: Jets @ Lions stays UNDER 45.5 points

Golden Tate will stay Under 62.5 receiving yards:

Referencing some of the same splits I used to decide Stafford’s TD total for the game, all signs point heavily in favor of Tate going Over 62.5 receiving yards. Tate has averaged 68 yards per game in career home games, 69 yards per game on Monday night and 75 yards per night games. Tate plays big when everyone is watching.
Another factor I considered is the over/ under for Stafford’s passing yards being set around 275. Those yards have to go somewhere and Tate’s 65 yards per game average over the past 2 seasons leads the team.

Prediction: Golden Tate goes OVER 62.5 receiving yards.

Theo Riddick will go Under 36.5 rushing and receiving yards:

The same reasoning I applied to Tate regarding Stafford’s passing yards’ over/ under gets applied to Theo Riddick. Those yards need to go somewhere. With the Jets secondary being their strength, I like Riddick out of the backfield as a safety valve.
In his last 26 games (played 10 in 2016), Riddick has averaged 11.5 touches for 57.5 total yards out of the backfield.
The 3rd factor is Detroit listing LeGarrette Blount their RB1. Blount is not a pass catcher. That leaves the familiar Riddick and rookie Kerryon Johnson to compete for passing down work. Johnson is the Blount handcuff and Riddick is the stand alone 3rd down back. That should equal Riddick totalling going Over 36 offensive yards.

Prediction: Theo Riddick goes OVER 36.5 rushing and receiving yards.

That’s it for week 1. Thanks for reading and good luck.