What Vegas Says About Fantasy Football Week 1

To stay on the cutting edge you should never stop looking for an edge.  What can you do to separate yourself from everyone else in your league.  Maybe it’s not that deep.  Maybe you’ve simply been agonizing over who to start between two players or team defenses.  It’s never a bad idea to see Vegas Fantasy Football Week 1: Early Games odds relation.

Projections are based off Fantasypros.com PPR scoring.  

Going off projections let’s figure out how many points players are projected to score then cross reference player projections against Vegas lines and prop bets.

1:00pm EST/ 10:00am PST

Jags @ Giants:

Jags

• Bortles: 239 yards/1.3 TD (15 points)
• Fournette: 81 rushing/ 20 receiving/.  .7 TD (16 points)
• Westbrook & Cole: 92 yards/.6 TD
• Lambo: 2 FG/ 2 XP (8 points)

Giants

• Manning; 235 yards/ 1.5 TD (13 pts)
• Barkley: 74 rushing/ 27 receiving/.4 TD       (16 points)
• OBJ: 73 yards/ .5 TD (16 points)
• Shephard: 49 yards/ .4 TD (12 points)
• Engram: 42 yards/ .2 TD (10 points)
• Rosas: 1 FG/ 2 XP (5 points)

What VEGAS Fantasy Football SAYS

Over/Under 43.5:

• Judging by Kickers alone, FantasyPros’ expert rankings have this game going UNDER 43.5 points.

OBJ Over/Under 5.5 catches:

• OBJ is projected for 16 points.  He is projected to have 7 yardage points and 3 TD points.  That leaves 6 points from catches remaining for him to hit his 16 point projection.  I don’t think he catches 6 balls against Jalen Ramsey.  I’d lean towards him going UNDER 5.5 catches.

Barkley Over/Under 95.5 rushing yards:

• Saquon is projected for 73 rushing yards.  Unlike the previous two, I don’t buy in to this projection.  The Jags were a middle of the road run D last year.  I don’t see them giving Eli much time or space to throw.  The Giants will lean on the rookie heavily out of the backfield.  This is why Saquon will go OVER 95.5 rushing yards.

Texans @ Pats:

Texans

• Watson: 270 passing/ 30 rushing/.   1.7 TD (20points)
• Miller: 61 rushing/ 24 receiving/ .3 TD’s (13 points)
• Hopkins: 93 yards/ .5 TD (18 points)
• Fuller 53 yards/ .5 TD (11 points)
• Fairbairn: 2 FG/ 2 XP (8 points)

Pats

• Brady: 282 yards/ 2.2 TD (20 points)
• Burkhead: 42 rushing/ 19 receiving/   .7 TD (12 points)
• White: 16 rushing/ 30 receiving/          .3 TD (10 points)
• Hogan: 66 yards/ .6 TD (15 points)
• Gronk: 74 yards/ .8 TD (19 points)
• Gostkowski: 2 FG/ 3 XP (9 points)

What Vegas Fantasy Football Says:

Over/Under 50:

• Just like the 1st game, kicker projections have this game staying under with 47 points.  I agree with Fantasypros here.  Week 1 is some sloppy football.  The defenses tend to be ahead of the offenses.  50 points for a week 1 matchup is high.  This game will stay UNDER 50 points.

DeAndre Hopkins Over/Under 84.5 receiving yards:

• Hopkins is projected for 6 catches, 93 yards and a 50/50 chance at scoring.  In 4 previous games against N.E. the Pats have done a great job limiting his production.  He averages 4 catches for 63 yards and has yet to score vs the Pats.  I think Watson starts off 2018 struggling, similar to Nick Foles and Matt Ryan.  I think Nuk finishes around his usual UNDER 84.5 yard total today in Foxborough.

Deshaun Watson Over/Under 27.5 rushing yards:

League-wide sloppy offensive play in Week 1 coupled with the Patroits having forever to gameplan for Watson should lead to the inexperienced QB getting confused and flustered.  If Watson doesn’t see his 1st read open after taking a couple early sacks, instincts will kick in and he is going to run the ball.  He’s very effective with his legs, I see him going OVER 27.5 rushing yards fairly easily.

Hopefully there’s a juicy nugget or two for you to poach out of this article. Check back before the late games for more What Vegas Says About Fantasy Football Week 1.