Football is back, and it feels so..so..good. Week 1 had as many fireworks as expected and much much more. More importantly, NFL DFS is back and better than ever. Each year, the competition gets fiercer as average DFS players turn into stars with the amount of information and analysis available at the fingertips.
Each and every week, I will be your ownership guru here at Fantasy CPR. On Saturday’s, you will have access to my projected ownership for the week (See WR projections from this past week) and we will recap the results on Tuesdays.
For clarity, we will only be analyzing the main slate of the week (1PM and 4PM EST games) on DraftKings which includes the new version of the Millionaire Maker, Roman’s Fantasy Football Millionaire.
NFL Week 1 Ownership Review – WRs
DFS DraftKings
Welcome to Week 1 of a new installment to the Fantasy CPR page, DraftKings NFL Ownership Projections and Review. Please bookmark this page (ALEX MCKINNON) to find your weekly ownership projections and reviews and follow me on twitter @AlexMcKinnonDFS for up to the minute news and notes about DFS ownership in the NFL.
A running theme throughout DFS history and DFS future was and always will be four main qualities to make someone chalk or popular to the public. Price, Recent Success, Opportunity/Injury, and Match Up or P.R.O.M.
- Price – Often coorelated with Injuries, a low priced option that the public feels will have opportunity to get a higher volume then originally projected is key.
- Recent Success – A player who is on a positive trajectory and is outscoring his projected value.
- Opportunity/Injury – A injury to a specific position on the depth chart that creates more or new opportunities for a a player.
- Match Up – Very simply, a DFS player will target week defensive (or offensive) match ups at a particular position or overall.
On the next page, I have a breakdown of the price, opponent, ownership and production for the eligible WRs in Week 1 on DraftKings Roman Fantasy Football Millionaire, the premiere contest in NFL DFS where the #1 spot receives $1 Million dollars.
Chart Key
17 Rank – Opponents Ranked On DraftKings Points allowed to this position (WR) in 2017
Multiplier – Perceived value based on price (DK Points / Price)
Example of Multiplier – AJ Green 20.2 Points / 7.3 ($7300) = 2.77 x multiplier
According the the results on the Millionaire contest, 181 points would have cashed in Week 1, meaning if each of your selections came in at 3.62 x multiplier, you would have been in the money.
This weekend, 19 WRs eclipsed 15 DK Points with 11 of those WRs passing 20 Points, 5 passing the 30 point mark and a pair, Tyreek Hill and Michael Thomas, amounting over 40 DK points this weekend. That is a lot of productive receivers with a handful more with at least 10. One thing is obvious from the charts above, you don’t need to ride the chalk when assembling a WR unit. This week you were able to find a ton of talent and productive performances in that 2-8% owned range.
Follow The Leader (Best Chalk Plays)
- Keenan Allen (21.45% owned) – 27.8 DK Points
- Michael Thomas (19.15% owned) – 42 DK Points
- Emmanuel Sanders (18.2% owned) – 32.5 DK Points
Only three receivers above 10% provided true value this week (read below for more on the multiplier). Keenan Allen ($7500) was the highest owned receiver on the week and was able to string together enough receptions to be an OKAY top chalk target.
Clearly the winner of the chalk was Michael Thomas ($7800) this week. If it wasn’t for the Ryan Fitzpatrick–DeSean Jackson surprise explosion, we would be talking more about Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. Thomas hauled in SIXTEEN OF SEVENTEEN targets for 180 yards and a TD. That’s an outrageous stat line for a receiver in week 1. If Brees continues to have time to throw the ball, this production will not stop.
I was skeptical of Emmanuel Sanders ($5000) despite the clear chalky buzz he was getting leading up to Sunday due to his price and improvement in quarterbacks. I still wasn’t fully counting out the Seahawks and I expected the Broncos to test out their multiple running backs a little more. However, Sanders grabbed 10 of 11 passes for 135 yds and a score and proved me dead wrong. It will be really interesting to see what happens to his ownership now that he is $6200 for next week.
If You’re Friend Jumped Off A Bridge, Would You Jump Too? (Worst Chalk Plays)
- Chris Hogan (19.29% owned) – 2.1 DK Points
- Stefon Diggs (18.8% owned) – 14.1 DK Points
- Keelan Cole (15.06% owned) – 8.4 DK Points
Thankfully, there were not that many disasters near the top of the ownership board this week minus one exception. Chris Hogan’s ($6100) performance was dreadful and didn’t even produce enough points to give your lineup a shot if you held a big gun (Kamara, Hill, etc.). He was usurped by Philip Dorsett all day and clearly won’t eat into Gronkowski’s targets. He is in a lovely spot for a low ownership-high reward for next week however.
By no means did Stefon Diggs ($6300) have a bad day. 14.1 points is a very respectable performance and probably didn’t kill your lineup if you had him. You did however miss out on a pivot opportunity in his ownership range and more importantly pricing range that couldn’t have changed your entire day. For both Diggs and Hogan, if you were able to spend just a few hundred dollars more, you could have had Tyreek Hill.
Keelan Cole ($3800) was a prime example of a players opportunity superseding his talent level. Keelan Cole was thrust into the #1 WR position for the Jaguars this weekend and I personally just don’t think he has the skill set to be worthy of that ‘James Conner Effect’. Not to rub it in again, but Dorsett ($3700) popped off for 19.6 points and Cole Beasley ($3600) went for 14.3 points to just name a pair in his range with a better day.
Where Did You Come From? (Best Low Ownership Performances)
- DeSean Jackson (0.88% owned) – 34.6 DK Points
- Mike Evans (2.77% owned) – 30.7 DK Points
- Ted Ginn Jr (5.19% owned) – 20.3 DK Points
- Tyreek Hill (9.5 % owned) – 45.3 DK Points
There were 18 receivers under 5% owned who put up at least 10 DK Points including 8 of which were under 2%. There is no way we could cover all of them but take a look at the spreadsheet, there was ownership value EVERYWHERE.
The combo of DeSean Jackson ($4600) and Mike Evans ($6700) had a bit of a throwback performance with Ryan Fitzpatrick (how?) putting together 65.3 DK Points between the two of them which means if you somehow had Fitzpatrick, Jackson and Evans in your lineup, you already had 110.58 DK Points and 6.78 x value. I don’t expect this to continue, but I don’t expect Evans or Jackson’s ownership to skyrocket so you can give it one more go next week if you dare.
Ted Ginn Jr. ($4300) benefits from being the emergency option when Michael Thomas or Alvin Kamara aren’t open. I wouldn’t get too comfortable playing Ted Ginn moving forward, but clearly (5.19% owned) he is a low owned target if you wish to stack Saints.
TyFREAK Hill ($6500) had his way with the Chargers setting the tone early with the TD return. Unlike some of the other options, I do believe he has some sustainability due to Mahomes tendencies. He may not go off for 45.3 points every week, but he is one of the few guys that carries that potential into every game.
Are You Worth Your Salt? (Best Value Multipliers)
DeSean Jackson (7.52 x)
Tyreek Hill (6.97 x)
Emmanuel Sanders (6.5 x)
Kenny Stills (6.3 x)
Michael Thomas (5.38 x)
Philip Dorsett (5.3 x)
Ted Ginn Jr (4.72 x)
Mike Evans (4.58 x)
Jakeem Grant (4.35 x)
Bruce Ellington (4.03 x)
Willie Snead (4.03 x)
Cole Beasley (3.97 x)
Dante Pettis (3.92 x)
Jarvis Landry (3.75 x)
Keenan Allen (3.71 x)
Brandon Marshall (3.68 x)
John Brown (3.62 x)
As I mentioned above, a multiplier of 3.62 across the board in your lineup would have put you in the money on DraftKings Millionaire contest. 17 Wide Receivers (above) were able to accomplish this feat this week. Depending on the week, a lineup that contains 4-5 x it’s value will put you in contention for a tournament win. 11 Wide Receivers were at least 4 x and 4 were able to surpass 6 x their value.
What Did We Learn?
My takeaway is STAY AWAY FROM THE CHALK. If you are going to put chalk in your lineup, do it at QB and RB and create some uniqueness to your lineup with the receivers. Price didn’t really seem to play a factor this week at receiver with the top 5 in ownership were all over $6000 which can be attributed to the lack of huge price tags on the slate (Bell and Gurley) eating up big chunks of salary. Some of the best performances from this weekend were against some of the best defenses last season which means we will need to recalibrate the level of defensive play and it shouldn’t really play a part in your lineups for the first few weeks.
Be sure to follow me on twitter at @AlexMcKinnonDFS for the latest in DraftKings ownership for the NFL season and let me know who you think will be chalk in Week 2!