Every week of the NFL season, I will provide you with my projected DraftKings ownership of each position for the DraftKings main slate. These projections are based on social trends, pricing, injury reports, match-ups and so on. Sources include beat reporters, weather reports, individual team injury reports, Pro Football Reference and FanShare Sports.
Welcome to the 2018 NFL regular season! More importantly, welcome to the 2018 NFL DFS season…A place where you can make serious cash if you do your research. A major factor in a DFS tournament is the DraftKings ownership. Riding the public wave and selecting a high DraftKings ownership player can be volatile. Having a highly owned player either nurtures everyone involved or can help eliminate them from the top of the leaderboard.
The best thing that can happen to your lineup is finding a low owned, high reward player who can separate you from the competition. There is no better feeling than seeing your top WR score two touchdowns and noticing he is only owned by 2% of the field.
This season, I will provide you with who I expect to be the highest owned players at each position along with some of the top expected performers with low DraftKings ownership expectations. I will also provide my picks per position based on the DraftKings ownership and pricing relationship and isolate a few hidden gems.
"A contrarian is a person that takes up a contrary position, especially a position that is opposed to that of the majority."
Let’s take a look at the projected DraftKings ownership on this slate!
DraftKings Ownership Highest Projected
Top Tier: AJ Green, Emmanuel Sanders, Keenan Allen and Keelan Cole
Middle Tier: DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas
Lower Tier: Stefon Diggs, Danny Amendola and John Ross
The public LOVES the Bengals this week, a team who was 7-9 last year and couldn’t seem to gel on offense. Nonetheless, they get to face a Colts defense who let up a league leading 12.9 yards per reception last year. John Ross is receiving a lot of love early but I don’t expect to him flirt with AJ Green’s ($7300) ownership. Green enters his 7th season after having a decent campaign last season. His connection with Dalton is undeniable and his price and matchup will likely land him as the most owned WR.
Emmanuel Sanders ($5000) is finally getting a quarterback who is a little more proven after dealing with the likes of Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch the last new years. The public loves his price this week and I also think the fact that Keenum was targeting Sanders on half of his throws in the last preseason game accounts for some of the confidence.
Keenan Allen ($7500) is climbing fast as a ‘replacement’ for those who do not trust the wind in the Steelers and Browns game. A savings of $1100 and a player in my favorite shootout threat of the week leaves Keenan Allen as the popular pick rushing into Sunday. When healthy, Allen is a Top 5 NFL target and has benefited from the likes of Melvin Gordon giving balance to the gunslinger Rivers.
With the likes of Donte Montcrief, Dede Westbrook and D.J. Clark as the only options in his shadow, Keelan Cole ($3800) is flying up the boards after the Marquis Lee news earlier this week. As the de facto #1 WR in week 1, Cole comes at a crazy value for a guy who will lead the way. Cole ripped of a few long touchdowns and made a few contributions last year when given the volume so let’s hope he can step it up early after having some time to prepare with the departures of Hurns and Robinson.
DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas are predicted to be in the middle of the pack of the higher owned receivers. I don’t expect them to push much higher then 20% and you can definitely expect a dip for Brown as we get closer to kickoff.
Hopkins ($8300) heads into New England to face a Belichick team who historically does all it can to eliminate or manage the opponents greatest threat. With no real alternative to even consider, Hopkins is the guy. Despite this, Hopkins will get his franchise QB back in Deshaun Watson and is impossible to completely contain. Last year, Hopkins was held to 76 yards on 7 catches (8 targets) and failed to score a touchdown. You have to spend your money somewhere this week, and I don’t think the public is hesitant to force Hopkins into their lineups this week.
Antonio Brown ($8600) should be in a prime position with Le’Veon Bell not traveling with the team for Week 1, right? Not with the current weather report out of Cleveland. Anywhere from 5-7 inches of rain and up to 40 mph for wind conditions. Conditions may even be brutal enough to stop this game from happening. His stock is falling, but I still expect an okay amount of exposure if this game is played.
Michael Thomas ($7800) is a pretty safe bet for 10 targets week in and week out. With 104 catches and 1,245 yards, each were good for 3rd and 6th among receivers last year. The Saints open against a Bucs team that will struggle to stay on the field with it’s offense leaving plenty of opportunities for both Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas in week 1.
Both Stefon Diggs ($6300) and Adam Thielen are receiving some decent interest heading into Kirk Cousins debut at home. With the last memory in the stadium being the Minneapolis Miracle and it’s star Diggs scoring a true walk-off touchdown, there will certainly be some juice in the building this afternoon as well as some SKOL displays. I think the public prefers Diggs price tag ($600 less than Thielen). Diggs has received enough interest from Kirk Cousins in the preseason for me to think he will get his due this week unlike last season where he disappeared from time to time.
Now I am not saying Danny Amendola ($4200) is as talented as former Dolphins slot receiver Jarvis Landry was, but I think he has enough left in the tank to be a serviceable target for Ryan Tannehill. His price is very reasonable with the fact the DeVante Parker is doubtful creates a huge amount of workload for the former Patriot. If Parker is out, Amendola’s ownership might bump up near the next level of guys.
As I mentioned earlier, the public LOVES the Bengals this week. John Ross ($3900) and his preseason performance including that nifty stop-and-go route with a pair of dekes on that touchdown that everyone saw. After a slow rookie campaign with only 4 games under his belt, Ross is ready to prove valuable to the Red Rocket. His price of course doesn’t hurt this week and he should compete with Amendola for ownership down in this pricing bracket.
DraftKings Ownership: Trending Wide Receivers
Juju Smith-Schuster ($5900) became the NFL darling last year with his on-the-field talent and off-the-field antics like his bike tales or his fortnite-ing with Drake and Ninja. He is also benefiting from the current absence of Le’Veon Bell. The weather has obviously effected Schuster as well, as he has plummeted in stock as the week has progressed putting him at likely below 5% if this game is played.
Dede Westbrook ($3900) was in this role last year as he was expected to shine for the Jaguars as a replacement during the season. Unfortunately, despite being targeted 51 times, Westbrook only managed to wrangle in 27 of those attempts. Hopefully he and Blake have worked on their continuity because Dede is currently trending up heading into this Sunday. This tweet is interesting as well, Blake was significantly better when throwing to the slot, which is a role Dede will be playing week 1…
https://twitter.com/STAYCRUEL/status/1038450943661170688
T.Y. Hilton ($6800) has been deadly in the past in his connection with Andrew Luck. As confidence in Luck grows as this week progresses, Hilton’s stock rises with it. T.Y. is always a leader in yards per reception so as long as Luck can get him the touches, he should make an impact.
Let’s take a look at some low ownership targets heading into week 1!
DraftKings Ownership Low-Projected Targets (7% or less)
I hope I’m not repeating myself to much, but I LOVE this Chargers/Chiefs game. I have spent most of my week constructing a few different stacks for this game. Tyreek Hill ($6500) will be a big part of it. Hill is one of the fastest guys in the league and he finally has a gunslinger in Patrick Mahomes. This connection may not be perfect right away but it should be fun to watch this year. Surprisingly, he has not been talked about much by the public and I see a great opportunity to snag him around 5-6% this week.
Odell Beckham ($7000) got PAID. The highest paid receiver in the league, Beckham has had a tumultuous past few seasons but I think it’s time for him to come down to earth. Of course, this matchup is going to be hellish with the Jags on the other side, the number one pass defense last season. However, no one is number one this year, they still have to prove it. Additionally, the Giants have 4 legitimate offense threats to alleviate some pressure on OBJ with Barkley, Engram, Shepard and of course Beckham. Low owned, reasonable price. Not a bad time to take a risk on Odell.
John Brown ($3700) paired with Joe Flacco this season should be something to watch to see if anything grows. Brown, 28, has a career 14.5 yards per reception and is the obvious deep ball threat on the Ravens. Flacco is one of the better gunslingers in the league, or at least he was. Let’s see if the Crabtree, Snead and Brown additions ring a bell for Flacco before he loses his job to Lamar Jackson.
Pierre Garcon ($4900) is one of the under-appreciated guys in this league. One of the more consistent guys in the league, he was unable to play with Jimmy G last season due to injury so this weekend will be his first official action with Garoppolo. Garcon is the perfect safety blanket for a guy like Garoppolo and I think that could start right away.
Phillip Dorsett ($3700) isn’t getting as much love as I would expect with the current construction of the Patriots receiving core. At the end of the day, Dorsett is technically the #2 receiver with Tom Brady as the quarterback. That sounds pretty good to me for $3700. He did have a very muted first year with the Patriots after being traded for Jacoby Brissett. It’s now or never for Dorsett to prove himself before Edelman returns or the Patriots add more weapons.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6600) should just be accepted into the Hall of Fame now, as he is playing. One of the most consistent careers in any sport of all time and he has never received the love and attention he deserves on the fantasy football landscape. Facing a Redskins team who doesn’t really have enough weapons to stay on the field long, Fitzgerald and his new QB Sam Bradford should mold just fine. Add the return of David Johnson and the Cardinals finally have multiple offensive options again which should free up Fitz. Another great receiver you can have for bottom level ownership.
My DraftKings Ownership Takeaway
With the option to roster up to 4 WRs, it’s absolutely fine if you grab 1-2 of the high owned weapons without risking your chance to climb the leaderboards. I actually don’t love a lot of those high owned options but I will likely be rostering Danny Amendola and maybe a sprinkle of John Ross. I LOVE some of the low owned options and will have Tyreek Hill in most of my lineups this weekend. I also like a total contrarian stack of Garoppolo and Pierre Garcon so he is another option I will be exploring. I will also be getting some exposure to Odell Beckham Jr in what should be a fun opening game for the Giants.
Follow me on Twitter @AlexMcKinnonDFS for late breaking ownership news.
Stay tuned for the projected ownership at all of the other positions leading up to kickoff on Sunday!
Add us as a preferred source on Google