Nylon Calculus: Breaking down age variance within NBA rosters
By Nate Rattner
LeBron James, and his decision to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers, dominated NBA headlines this past summer. As intriguing as this decision was, however, the next round of speculation started immediately: which fellow superstars would LeBron bring along? But when a number of established veterans did not end up joining him in L.A. — Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and DeMarcus Cousins among them — it became clear that James would be the old man on a young team for at least the 2018-19 season.
The Lakers, despite finally signing some veteran talent, will likely start two 20 and 21-year-olds alongside LeBron this season in Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram. Kyle Kuzma (23 years old), Josh Hart (23), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (25) should also get key minutes. The “Lakers Young Core” narrative has made its way even to the mind of Lakers coach Luke Walton, who said that the team’s first scrimmage would pit the younger players against the veterans.
Despite these age differences, the Lakers roster is not the most varied, when it comes to player ages, among NBA teams. With LeBron as the team’s oldest player at 33, this age spread among Los Angeles players is significant, but not quite the widest in the league.
Looking at age variance across an NBA roster can illustrate quite a bit about the team’s makeup. Variance is a way to measure how far a set of numbers is spread out; in other words, it measures how much something changes. Teams like the Lakers, made up of a young group surrounded by veterans, have higher variance; teams whose player ages are condensed within a short range of years have lower variance.
Below are the five NBA teams with the most age variance across their rosters.
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta features both the oldest player in the league, Vince Carter, and one of the youngest, Trae Young. Carter, who turns 42 in January, narrowly edges out Dirk Nowitzki for the title of NBA’s eldest statesman. In his 21st season, which may be his last, Carter will get backup minutes and serve as a mentor for Atlanta’s younger players.
That younger group includes Young (20 years old) and fellow rookies Kevin Huerter (20) and Omari Spellman (21), all of whom are roughly half of Carter’s age. In between this gap is third-year player Taurean Prince (24) along with a handful of veterans who have played in the league for five seasons or more, including them Kent Bazemore (29) and Jeremy Lin (30).
Dallas Mavericks
From an age and career standpoint, Dallas has one of the most interesting mixes of players in the league. At one end of the spectrum is Nowitzki, age 40, who may come off the bench for the first time since his rookie season. Devin Harris, at 35 and entering his 15th season, will also be part of the second unit. Wesley Matthews and DeAndre Jordan, both starters, are 31 and 30, respectively.
The Mavs’ two youngest players will make up one of the league’s fastest backcourts when paired together. Dennis Smith Jr., 20, will be following up a breakout rookie campaign with the help of Luka Dončić, 19, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft. Rounding out the younger end of the Dallas roster is the team’s leading scorer from last season, 26-year-old Harrison Barnes, along with forwards Dorian Finney-Smith (25) and Maxi Kleber (26).
Phoenix Suns
At 20 years old, 2018 No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton has the potential to be the team’s second star. The face of the franchise right now, of course, is Devin Booker, an elite scorer who is still only 21 years old entering his fourth season. T.J. Warren (25) and Josh Jackson (21) will be the likely second and third options on offense.
General Manager Ryan McDonough has made a concerted effort to surround these young talents with established players throughout a productive offseason. Following the successful draft, Phoenix signed 33-year old veteran Trevor Ariza to a one-year deal, and then traded for 30-year-old big man Ryan Anderson. And one face that has stayed the same amidst all this change is that of center Tyson Chandler (35), who should have an impact both on and off the court, particularly as Ayton develops his game.
San Antonio Spurs
Another team in transition is the San Antonio spurs, as many of the most prominent — and long-tenured — players of the past decade have departed. But San Antonio is still led by a veteran group, now anchored by forwards Pau Gasol, 38, LaMarcus Aldridge, 33, and free-agent signee Marco Belinelli, 32. Newcomer DeMar DeRozan, though 29, is in fact one of the younger players on the team.
The Spurs’ youngest player may also be the team’s most interesting. Dejounte Murray is likely to be the starting point guard this season, and expectations are high for the 22-year-old to continue his dramatic improvement. Murray spent the summer working on his jump shot, is one of the NBA’s top defensive point guards, and has the opportunity to be the next face of the franchise now that Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili have moved on.
Sacramento Kings
Zach Randolph 37, is nearly twice the age of the Kings’ 19-year-old pick in the 2018 draft, Marvin Bagley III. Randolph, a former first-round pick himself, is no stranger to the league; in 17 seasons the big man has played for five teams and is a two-time All-Star. In what may be his final NBA stop, Sacramento is hoping Z-Bo can pass along the tricks of the trade to their rookie from Duke.
Between these two poles are a number of young, talented players, including Justin Jackson (23) and De’Aaron Fox (20), both products of last year’s draft. Starting alongside Bagley, Fox, and Jackson will be 26-year-old guard Bogdan Bogdanovic and 25-year-old center Willie Cauley-Stein.
Methodology: For this analysis, only the 10 players most likely to play significant minutes in the upcoming 2018-19 NBA season were included for each roster.