DraftKings PGA: Safeway Open Picks and Analysis

NAPA, CA – OCTOBER 08: Phil Mickelson plays his shot out of the bunker on the 17th hole during the final round of the Safeway Open at the North Course of the Silverado Resort and Spa on October 8, 2017 in Napa, California. (Photo by Robert Laberge/Getty Images) /

DraftKings PGA: Safeway Open

Congratulations team! We made it through the 2017-18 PGA Tour season and are on to The Safeway Open. There were plenty of ups and downs along the way, but I thoroughly enjoined the 2017-18 season. It did not quite end as I had hoped, with a USA loss at the Ryder Cup. But I cannot complain! It was so much fun watching Tiger be Tiger again, and the win at the Tour Championship was incredible entertainment!

From the Ryder Cup, we now move to the West Coast swing. Just like how NFL teams are more commonly favored at home, golfers tend to play better on their home turf. The West Coast swing can be very profitable if you know which golfers play well on the native California greenery.

The first stop of the 2018-19 PGA Tour season is in Napa, California at Silverado Resort’s North Course. This Robert Trent Jones Jr. Course is an easier tract, with the past 4 champions (since the event moved to the North Course) averaging 16-under. The par-72 measures just over 7,200 yards, with slow poa greens and narrow tree-lined fairways. The goal of this tract is to keep the ball in the short grass and attack these easy-to-hit greens. Looking at the past leaderboards, the course has tended to favor accuracy over distance, but know that par-5 scoring is a correlate to success.

Key Stats

The keys stats that I am focusing on this week for RBC Canadian Open DraftKings PGA GPP contests:

Tee to Green Gained

Approach Gained

Off-The-Tee Gained

Scoring Gained

Par 5 Birdie or Better Gained

Poa Greens Gained

As always, you should be building your own models. FantasyNational.com and FutureOfFantasy.com are great tools to use.

CROMWELL, CT – JUNE 22: Beau Hossler watches his tee shot on the 17th hole during the second round of the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands on June 22, 2018 in Cromwell, Connecticut. (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images) /

Safeway Open – Picks

$11,700 Patrick Cantlay

Cantlay has never formally played this event, which normally is fade material for me. However, I love the way he concluded his 2017-18 season. Cantlay is not only the best golfer in this field, he is also playing as well as anyone in the field. He is also from Cali, but that is just icing on the cake for me. I am thinking 100% could be an option with all this value on the board, so hopefully his price-tag deters ownership so I can be MASSIVELY overweight.

$10,000 Emilliano Grillo

It is still early in the week, but I can see DFSers starting their lineups with Grillo. And its hard to blame them. Grillo rates out extremely well in my model. He is an excellent ball-striker, drives it straight, and is one of the better putters in this field. His form is solid, and his course history is excellent. Grillo won this event in 2015 and has yet to finish worse than 28th in 3 attempts.

$9,100 Beau Hossler

Hossler’s rookie season was very impressive, but he stumbled down the stretch. The last time I remember watching Hossler he was hitting 4 drives off of hole one in a late tee-time on the weekend. But I am cool to look past those struggles because he was a rookie. Hossler is one of the best putters on the Tour, and his approaches improved incrementally throughout the season. I am feeling a big West Coast swing for the California kid.

NAPA, CA – OCTOBER 14: J.J. Spaun plays his shot on the 12th hole during the second round of the Safeway Open at the North Course of the Silverado Resort and Spa on October 14, 2016 in Napa, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

Safeway Open – Values

$7,500 Bronson Burgoon

Originally I thought Burgoon may be super chalk this week, but the 11/24 cuts made beside his name on DK should scare away casual PGA DFSers. In his final 8 events of last season, Burgoon made 5/8 cuts with a 2nd, 6th and 11th. His best golf is ahead of him. Also, he finished 17th at this event last year in his only attempt.

$7,100 Joel Dahmen

Ride the hot form! Dahmen went on a tear for 6 straight weeks and then was worn out by the time he got to the FedEx Cup Playoffs. I see Dahmen coming out strong with a ton of confidence. It was only a couple of months ago that Dahmen went T23, T5, T2, T15, and T8 in consecutive tournaments. Hopefully an MC at this event last year will decrease ownership.

$6,800 JJ Spaun

Spaun was hot fire last West Coast swing. After a cold stretch in the middle of Summer, Spaun started heating up towards the end of the 2017-18 season. Spaun made 8 of 9 cuts to end the season, now he is returning to his home state. So what he missed the cut here last season, at this price-tag you could do worse.

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