NBA Season Preview 2018-19: The Nets almost have a healthy offense

As the Brooklyn Nets chase competitiveness, what’s the key to them unlocked an effective offense?

During Kenny Atkinson’s two seasons as head coach of the Brooklyn Nets, his team’s offense has been pretty bad. The Nets ranked 28th in points scored per 100 possessions during the 2016-17 season, per NBA.com, and 21st during the 2017-18 season.

Taking a peek under the hood, it does not appear that the Nets have been at all close to being a good offense, as they’ve ranked below-average in three of the four factors in each of Atkinson’s two seasons. They’ve been poor shooters. They’ve been extraordinarily bad at winning the possession game, ranking in the bottom third of the league in turnover rate and offensive rebound rate in both seasons. The only thing they’ve been better-than-average at, in either campaign, is getting to the free-throw line.

Having said all that, an even deeper dive reveals that the Nets are actually much closer to being above-average or even good offensively than you might believe. Take their shot distribution, for example. During Atkinson’s first season, 71.9 percent of the Nets’ shots came in either the restricted area or behind the 3-point line. That rate ranked second in the NBA behind only the Rockets. Last season, 71.6 percent of their shots came from those two areas, and that rate again ranked second in the league behind only the Rockets.

An encouraging comparison here would be the early Process 76ers, who despite finishing last in the NBA in offensive efficiency during each of the first four seasons of Brett Brown’s tenure as head coach, nevertheless ranked in the top seven in the league in “Moreyball Rate.” Their commitment to taking the best possible shots was a strong sign that as soon as the Sixers got enough talent on the floor, their offense would eventually sing. Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened. Philadelphia jumped to 11th in the NBA in offensive efficiency last season, with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons leading the way.

The Nets, obviously, do not yet have the elite players necessary to boost their offense into the top half of the league as the Sixers did a year ago. But even beyond their shot selection, there are other encouraging signs that Atkinson’s charges are indeed running a healthy offense. There are all kinds of indicators in the Second Spectrum player tracking stats that they’re deriving their shots through the right avenues.

Take a look at the following chart, which shows where the Nets ranked during the 2017-18 season in several areas that help indicate the ways which teams create their looks.

The Nets threw a whole lot of passes — the sixth-most in the league per 100 possessions, indicating that they made a commitment to moving the ball. They rarely took pull-up shots, with those looks accounting for just 22.6 percent of their shots, while they were among the NBA leaders in creating catch-and-shoot opportunities. And they were among the league’s most dedicated teams in driving the ball from the perimeter to the paint.

While the pull-up jumper has become an incredibly important weapon in the modern NBA, especially in pick-and-rolls, it is still a far less efficient shot than a catch-and-shoot. Last season, the league as a whole generated an effective field goal percentage of 43.0 on its pull-up attempts, while catch-and-shoots had an effective field goal percentage of 53.6 percent. The Nets didn’t fare all that well on either type of shot (the percentages listed above are raw field goal percentages, but rest assured their effective rates were not much better), but they did appear to value the right type of attempt more highly. If and when they get better players, having an offense that yields the right type of attempts will benefit the team, as said players will be put in a better position to succeed.

Additionally, the Nets attempted to drive to the basket more often than almost any team in basketball. Despite not having a traditional star scorer who can get his own shot off the bounce whenever he wants, the Nets were still able to pierce the defense because of the design of their offense and Atkinson and his point guards’ dedication to getting into the paint. Doing so forces the defense to react from all over the floor, which helps create those shots at the rim or behind the 3-point line — at which, again, the Nets somewhat surprisingly excelled. D’Angelo Russell turning into the kind of point guard who generates those shots all by his lonesome is probably the best-case scenario for the Nets, but given how increasingly unlikely that looks, it’s a very good sign that the system itself has shown a consistent ability to get lesser players into the heart of the defense, from where all the best shots tend to flow.

The personnel the Nets added this offseason should aid them in these efforts. Shabazz Napier has shown some ability to drive from the perimeter to the paint. Dzanan Musa can snipe from beyond the line and create his own looks off the bounce. Ed Davis almost always shoots in the immediate area of the rim. Jared Dudley has been a corner 3 master for years. Treveon Graham showed last that season that he can do a little bit of everything. While the presence of all of those newcomers — plus an expanded role for center Jarrett Allen, who was a pogo-stick dunker as a rookie but has the potential to be much more — is unlikely to push the Nets into the playoffs this season, it should certainly help them in their quest to field an above-average offense. It may not happen this year, but it will soon enough.