College Football picks against the spread October 13, 2018

College Football picks against the spread October 13, 2018

It’s that time of week again! Time for a huge college football Saturday with 48 more FBS vs. FBS games. A few teams are off, but at least we have fewer and fewer teams stepping out to beat on FCS opponents. Some still get teams that resemble FCS opponents though.

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This is my favorite time of the week. The time when I get to really dive into the spread for the most accurate readings. You know you really love something when you would do it even if no one read it. Back when I first started this on a previous site, I had maybe ten views per week. I still put just as much time and effort into it.

For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! A .500 week kept me above .500 on the season at 157-153 overall. I did lose 18 betting points last week, so I am 8 down on the season. Time to make some of that back!

As we all well know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.

Without further delay, we get to the meat of week 7!

Minnesota at (3)Ohio State(-29.5)(2):

That’s a lot of points, and Minnesota’s defense isn’t really the problem. However, the Minnesota secondary is still ravaged by injuries and I have serious questions as to whether they will even get a first down in the first half. I’ll go with Brutus.

(14)Florida(-7.5) at Vanderbilt(2):

I’m not a big fan of that half considering Florida’s offensive woes, but Vandy’s offense is just as bad and their defense is half as good. I think I have to go Florida here.

Tennessee at (21)Auburn(-14.5)(3):

14.5 for Auburn is like 35 for Alabama. Auburn’s offensive ineptitude is legendary in the south right now. If they are ever going to get going, it’s here against a terrible Tennessee team. I’m going to regret this, but give me Auburn.

Rutgers at Maryland(-24.5)(3):

I don’t have a lot of faith in the Maryland offense right now, but Rutgers would have to be a dog against Princeton right now. They are that bad. Give me the Terps.

Iowa(-4.5) at Indiana(4):

This looks pretty low. Iowa’s offense isn’t going to torch you, but they are decent. Indiana is still a work in progress. I’ll take Iowa.

Nebraska at Northwestern(-3.5)(2):

I know that Northwestern is capable of winning this, but they also lost to Akron at home. Wisconsin had trouble with the Nebraska offense, who is actually starting to get it going. Nebraska has never started 0-6. That is a strong motivator, and this is a winnable game. Give me Nebraska.

Oklahoma State(-6.5) at Kansas State(3):

You probably wont find this at 6.5 now. It is -7 everywhere. It just happened to open at -6.5 in one spot. This has historically been a good game, and likely will be again. However, I would have taken it at 7.5. I think Oklahoma State wins by double digits, but it’s going to be a fight.

Akron at Buffalo(-11.5)(2):

Buffalo has been my cash cow this year both for and against, but this is the first time where I don’t really know what to think. Buffalo’s offense was out of sorts last week, but still managed to barely cover. Akron beat Northwestern and played Iowa State tough. I think this stays within ten. I’ll take the Zips.

Toledo(-2.5) at Eastern Michigan(1):

Toledo’s offense isn’t as explosive as last year, but neither is Eastern Michigan. This is going to be close and going to be back and forth, and I really have no clue who will win. I’ll take Toledo with Guadagni playing, but I have no confidence in it.

Duke at Georgia Tech(-2.5)(2):

Georgia Tech might still be winded from running wild on Louisville last Friday. They aren’t going to have that kind of room against Duke. Duke’s defense is good at keeping plays in front of them, so Tech isn’t going to go nuts here. The problem is the Duke offense. I’ll take Tech after what I saw last week.

Louisville at Boston College(-13.5)(2):

I certainly understand this since Georgia Tech ran from Louisville to Atlanta on the Cardinal defense last week. A.J. Dillon will likely do the same……if he plays. If Dillon is out, I don’t think there’s a chance that the Eagles cover. If he plays, I’ll take the Eagles.

UAB(-16.5) at Rice(2):

Rice is awful. I’ll take the Blazers.

Troy(-9.5) at Liberty(1):

This line is all over the place because Liberty is. I still think Troy is the best team in the Sun Belt, so I’m taking them here. However, Liberty is capable of beating anyone on their schedule, so I have little confidence.

Southern Mississippi at North Texas(-9.5)(3):

What is wrong with the Mean Green offense? If and when they get back on track, they are going to obliterate the spread. I think that might be here. Give me the Mean Green.

Pittsburgh at (5)Notre Dame(-20.5)(3):

The Irish are back to afternoon games for the first time in weeks. Will that affect them? Even if the Irish come out flat, they have far too much talent on both sides of the ball to not cover this. Pitt is a mess, and is likely missing their top receiver. Notre Dame may regress, but I doubt it’s here.

Kent State at Miami(OH)(-10.5)(2):

This line has dropped a little, and I do understand why. I just don’t think it’s right. Give me the Raglands.

Western Michigan(-14.5) at Bowling Green(2): 

The Falcons are probably the worst team in the MAC, but it’s hard to cover more than two touchdowns on the road. That said, Bowling Green is 1-5 against the spread. The only team that didn’t cover them was a Toledo squad that has gone cold on offense. Running teams have destroyed the Falcons, so I’ll go with the Broncos.

Ball State at Central Michigan(-2.5)(1):

This line opened even, and is now at -3 almost across the board. I understand it. CMU played well that weekend. Ball State did not. That said, I have to go with the more talented team, which would be Ball State. Give me the Letterman’s!

(2)Georgia(-7.5) at (13)LSU(2):

I like the half, but I still don’t really trust this one enough to bet on it. I could see LSU winning. I could also see them losing by double digits. Georgia’s offense finally got going last week, but they are facing a lot of future NFL players on this defense. I don’t think LSU loses by two scores. Give me the Tigers.

(7)Washington(-3.5) at (17)Oregon(3):

I kind of think that the Huskies were looking ahead last week, especially in the second half. Washington missed on that signature win against Auburn. I don’t really think this is it, but beating a ranked team on the road can’t hurt. I’ll take the Huskies.

Michigan State at (8)Penn State(-13.5)(4):

Penn State has the ability to destroy this Michigan State defense. If they are interested, that is. If they have the fire that they did against Ohio State, this is going to get ugly. Give me Penn State.

Baylor at (9)Texas(-14.5)(2):

Ninth? Okay then! This line has dropped three points, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it falls more. I think Texas has a bit of Oklahoma hangover here, and Baylor may have the best athletes that Texas has seen this year. Give me the Bears to keep it with ten or so.

(10)Central Florida(-4.5) at Memphis(5):

I know this is a rematch of a game that UCF almost lost last year on a neutral field. This is the same UCF team. This is definitely not the same Memphis team. The Memphis defense is having all kinds of issues. I’ll take UCF by double digits.

(22)Texas A&M(-2.5) at South Carolina(3):

I was kind of leading towards the Cocks until I saw how bad their run defense is. Trayveon Williams and Kellen Mond could have huge games here. I’ll take the Aggies.

Ohio at Northern Illinois(-4.5)(2):

I don’t really get this. I still like the Bobcats straight up.

Temple(-6.5) at Navy(2):

This line is up three points, but it may be too far. Navy really has not played well this year, but their run defense, against running backs anyway, has been pretty solid. If Armstead doesn’t play, Temple is in trouble. Even if he does play, I still don’t think they win by a touchdown. Give me Navy.

Western Kentucky(-7.5) at Charlotte(4):

Hmmm….what am I missing here? Charlotte got blown off their own field by UAB last weekend. The Hilltopper offense probably isn’t quite as dangerous at UAB now, but it’s close. I see Charlotte losing by a couple of touchdowns.

Marshall(-4.5) at Old Dominion(3):

The bettors are obviously assuming that Isaiah Green is in. There is no official word yet. If Green is out, I like Old Dominion easily. If not, it’s going to be pretty close. I still doubt Green will be at 100%, so I’ll go with the Monarchs.

Army(-16.5) at San Jose State(3):

Wow, they sure know how to make me lower my bet. That said, if Army can beat Buffalo by more than this, I have to think they can do the same to the Spartans. Give me Army.

Purdue(-10.5) at Illinois(3):

This Illinois team is improving, but they aren’t there yet. Purdue finally has some playmakers on that offense, and they are going to be on full display here. Give me the Boilermakers.

New Mexico at Colorado State(EVEN)(2):

I haven’t seen much to like about New Mexico. At least the Colorado State offense is interesting. I’ll take the Rams.

UNLV at Utah State(-26.5)(2):

Wow, this is a lot. I know that UNLV hasn’t been nearly close to what they were when Armani Rogers was healthy, but are they really this bad? This line opened at 22.5, and probably should have stayed down there. Aggies win, but don’t cover.

New Mexico State at Louisiana(-7.5)(1):

The Aggies played their best game of the season last week. The Cajuns got obliterated by Ole Miss. I get this line, and I really don’t like the half. That said, New Mexico State has not been very good on the road. Give me Louisiana, I guess.

Louisiana-Monroe at Coastal Carolina(-6.5)(1):

Well, this one is interesting. They do have one common opponent. Monroe lost to Troy by 8. The Chanticleers lost by three touchdowns. Still, I would assume that Coastal Carolina is favored because they are at home and because Kilton Anderson should play. It’s still not enough. Give me the Warhawks.

Missouri at (1)Alabama(-28.5)(3):

See Tua run. See Tua throw. See Missouri trip over themselves trying to tackle Tua. They did against Purdue, and this Alabama team is a lot more dangerous than Purdue. It’s a good thing this starts early, because it will essentially be over in time to flip to a marquee game and you wont feel like you missed anything. Alabama wins BIG.

(6)West Virginia(-6.5) at Iowa State(2):

I expect this to be a really good game, but I am shocked that the line is this low. Still, I just have this feeling that it is a winnable game for the Cyclones. That said, this looks pretty low. Iowa State’s defense statistically isn’t that great. They just come up with big plays. Just like Kansas. I do think Iowa State stays close, but they still lose by at least a touchdown. Update: 1:37 pm central I just have this feeling that Iowa State is going to win this game. I’m going Cyclones!

(16)Miami(FL)(-6.5) at Virginia(2):

This is another one that I’m surprised is so low. You can’t take much from Miami struggling in a rivalry game. Virginia’s defense is strong, so they are going to give the Canes some problems. I still think the Hoos lose by double digits though.

Houston(-16.5) at East Carolina(1):

The only FBS team that Houston has covered is an awful Arizona team. This looks a tad high. However, ECU just got destroyed by Temple last week. I think I have to go with Houston.

Virginia Tech(-6.5) at North Carolina(5):

I know that losing a guy like Josh Jackson is tough, by Ryan Willis is a good quarterback. What more does he have to prove? Throwing for 400 on the Tarheels should do it. Virginia Tech BIG for my lock of the week!

Louisiana Tech(-10.5) at UTSA(2):

The Roadrunners are a tough one to pick. That said, J’Mar Smith it the best player on the field, and it’s not close. I’ll take the Bulldogs.

UCLA at California(-6.5)(2):

UCLA’s offense had easily their best game of the year against the toughest defense they have faced so far. I expect a high scoring game. Neither defense is good, and the UCLA offense finally looks like it can keep up. Vegas noticed, because the spread on this is pretty low. This is a game I could see UCLA winning outright. I’ll take the Bruins.

(15)Wisconsin at (12)Michigan(-9.5)(2):

This line is up three points, and my feeling is it closes at at least -10. No one believes in Wisconsin since Nebraska was able to move the ball on them. Here’s a little secret for you: The Nebraska offense was healthy for the first time since the first game. Michigan’s run defense scares me, but their offense is terrible. Wisconsin’s defense is good enough to stop them because I’m not sure Michigan can really throw the ball. Patterson should have opened up a lot of things for this offense, but here we are halfway through the season and Michigan is again having problems moving the ball in most games. Give me Wisconsin. They aren’t winning outright, but this stays a one score game. I wouldn’t be shocked if neither team found the end zone.

Mississippi(-6.5) at Arkansas(5):

Wow, this is easy money. If you are a fan of statistics, Arkansas’ defense is almost as bad as the Louisiana team that Ole Miss just hung 70 on. Mississippi isn’t getting 70 here, but they are hitting 40. I doubt Arkansas hits 30. Give me the Rebels.

Middle Tennessee State at Florida Atlantic(-2.5)(1):

The Owls win and cover if Devin Singletary sees 30 carries. That seems like a given. Give me the Owls. Yes, I made sure I changed it on Pick Em this time.

Hawaii at BYU(-10.5)(5):

Seriously? Hawaii gets Cole McDonald back, and BYU is starting a true freshman at QB. The good news for the Cougars is that Mangum is healthy if they want him. They might need him to try and keep up here. I’ll take Hawaii all day. This is way too many.

(6)Notre Dame(-6.5) at (24)Virginia Tech(3):

After seeing what the Irish did to Stanford last week, this looks low. I’m keeping the bet down because it is a road game, but Notre Dame’s offense looks very balanced and hard to stop right now. I’ll take the Irish.

(19)Colorado at USC(-6.5)(4):

The Ralphies have never beaten USC. How much of that narrative sticks in their head? Colorado is the better team right now. USC’s inability to consistently run the ball has been a big problem, and could be again. More frightening is that they really don’t have anyone that can cover Chenault. I still like Colorado straight up.

Wyoming at Fresno State(-17.5)(2):

Wow, that’s a lot to hand on a decent Wyoming defense. Nico Evans is running the ball well right now too. Wyoming is going to try to play keep away and shorten the game, which will hamper Fresno’s ability to cover. Give me Wyoming, but they have very little chance of winning outright.

Boise State(-16.5) at Nevada(2):

This line is all over the place because the status of Ty Gangi is still non-committal. I honestly don’t know if it matters. This Nevada defense isn’t stopping anyone. I’ll take Boise.

We have another big slate with 54 games this week. I ended up betting less than last week. Those four pointers wrecked me, but I still have some big bets out there. I ended up with eight one pointers. 23 two pointers, 15 three pointers, five four pointers, and four five pointers. I’m off to a good start! Hopefully it carries over!