Nylon Calculus: Are Al Horford and Aron Baynes the NBA’s premier Embiid-stoppers?

It was an inauspicious start to the season for the Philadelphia 76ers. The Boston Celtics broke open a close game in the second half and coasted to an 18-point victory. Integrating Markelle Fultz into the offense will almost certainly present some bumps along the way but, as out of place as he looked at times, Joel Embiid’s rough night had as much to do with the 76ers rough offensive performance as anything.

Embiid finished with a 23-point, 10-rebound double-double, but he attempted just four free throws, added five turnovers and shot 9-of-21 from the field. Six of his points came on the fastbreak which just underscores how much trouble he had getting clean looks in the halfcourt.

Aron Baynes and Al Horford did an exceptional job on Embiid, drawing offensive fouls, fighting to keep him off his spots and, on plays like the one below, challenging his shots with enough physicality to keep him off balance but not enough to get called for a foul.

In the middle of the second half, the legacy of tough defense on Embiid played by both Horford and Baynes drew some attention on Twitter.

To see how much truth there actually was to that characterization, I pulled Embiid’s defensive matchups stats from NBA.com and, combining both regular season and playoffs, filtered down to the defenders who had spent at least 70 total possessions defending him last season.

Horford was, indeed, one of the most effective Embiid defenders last season. Although he allowed Embiid relative freedom as an individual scorer — 35.3 points per 100 possessions, right in line with his full-season average — the 76ers managed an absurdly slim 96.7 points per 100 possessions when Horford was his primary defender.

Baynes was not nearly as effective last year, although he held Embiid slightly below his regular scoring average and held him to just 46.4 percent from the field, also slightly below his regular season number.

Altogether on Opening Night, the 76ers scored just 50 points on the 60 possessions during which Horford or Baynes were matched up with Embiid. It was a remarkable effort by both players and even had Embiid acknowledging in his post-game interview that the Celtics have had the upper hand against him and Philadelphia. This matchup may very well come up again in the playoffs and if Horford and Baynes can continue to push Embiid off rhythm, the 76ers will have a much harder hill to climb.