College Football picks against the spread October 27, 2018

College Football picks against the spread October 27, 2018

It’s that time of week again! Time for a big college football Saturday with 44 games here. We had 11 prior to Saturday this week, so the slate is a bit lighter. That doesn’t mean that it’s any less exciting!

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This is my favorite time of the week. The time when I get to really dive into the spread for the most accurate readings. You know you really love something when you would do it even if no one read it. Back when I first started this on a previous site, I had maybe ten views per week. I still put just as much time and effort into it.

For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! A poor week leaves me at just two games above .500 on the season at 210-208 overall.

As we all well know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.

Without further delay, we get to the meat of week 9!

(2)Clemson(-16.5) at Florida State(2):

This has usually been a tougher game for Clemson on the road. Florida State is getting better, and if Etienne can’t run, I could see Clemson having some issues. More importantly, this is number 2 on the road for the third straight week. The other two lost. I’m not saying Clemson will lose, but I think this stays within two touchdowns.

(20)Wisconsin(-6.5) at Northwestern(1):

The Northwestern defense is good. The offense is bad. Sound familiar? The Wildcats may as well be playing a slightly more talented mirror of themselves in this one. That could prove dangerous for Wisconsin. Give me Northwestern.

Vanderbilt(-1.5) at Arkansas(4):

I know the Piggies are improving, but Rakeem Boyd isn’t going to be able to run much in this one. Vandy shut down Benny Snell last week. They can certainly handle Boyd, and the Arkansas passing offense isn’t scaring anyone. I’ll take Vandy.

Texas Tech at Iowa State(-3.5)(2):

How will the Cyclones do as favorites? All of these upsets have come as pretty big dogs. This is going to be a difficult one for Texas Tech because of how balanced this offense is. I don’t like that half, and this is going to be a very high scoring game. I’m taking Texas Tech for now, but I may change this before Saturday. I will update here if I do. Update 11:54 am Saturday: I’m flipping to Iowa State. They are money in Ames.

Wake Forest at Louisville(-2.5)(3):

The only thing I know for sure is that this is going to be an ugly game. Wake’s defense is horrid and Louisville’s offense is a mistake prone mess. Something has to give. I like Wake, but I haven’t seen anything from them in the last month that says they can win this on the road. I’ll take Louisville.

Massachusetts(-4.5) at Connecticut(5):

Okay, UConn’s defense is still terrible, but UMass’s isn’t any better. The Huskies hung within eight against a ranked South Florida team. Could UMass do that? Not a chance. There is no way UMass should be favored on the road. I like UConn BIG!

Army at Eastern Michigan(EVEN)(2):

This line opened at EMU -3, and has seen Army favored by as many as 2. There is still a four point play in this line, which is very unusual. Vegas is taking chasers on both sides. Not even the juice is showing a favorite (the juice is 20 on Northwestern to zero for Wisconsin, for example). I tend to like Army, but this is going to me one of the more entertaining games of the week.

Purdue at Michigan State(-1.5)(5):

This has trap game written all over it, but I’m going to let you in on a little secret. The Spartans are the biggest closeted terrible team in the country. 94 yards? Really? Lewerke makes way too many mistakes, and their line can’t keep anyone out of the backfield. The Spartans can’t handle this explosive offense. I don’t care how poorly Purdue plays. I fail to see a scenario where they lose this. Boilers straight up.

Central Michigan at Akron(-4.5)(3):

This has the looks of another wild one in the MAC. That said, the Chips have been bulldozed two weeks in a row in games that should have stayed close. I’m taking Akron.

North Carolina at Virginia(-8.5)(4):

I was hoping this line wouldn’t get so big because I’m not really sold on the Virginia offense. However, the defense may cover this by themselves. I’ll ride the Hoo train again!

Southern Mississippi(-7.5) at Charlotte(3):

You know what? The 49ers and I have an understanding now. They aren’t as bad as I thought and have accused them of being. In return, they are going to quit getting covered. I could honestly see Charlotte winning this outright. Give me Charlotte.

Coastal Carolina(-3.5) at Georgia State(2):

The Water Roosters looked pretty good last week, but I don’t really see them going to Atlanta and winning this outright. I’ll take Georgia State.

TCU(-13.5) at Kansas(2):

The Kansas defense has been pretty bad, but the offense has a few things to get excited about. Unfortunately for the KU faithful, not much of that will be on display due to the strength of the TCU defense. I’ll take the Toadies.

Oregon State at Colorado(-24.5)(3):

This is a massive line for a team with a poor defense to cover. The offense may also be without Laviska Shenault. If that’s the case, Colorado has no chance of covering this. It’s going to be difficult anyway. That said, Oregon State has been horrible. I have to go Colorado.

(9)Florida vs. (7)Georgia(-6.5) at Jacksonville(3):

I’m going to be about two hours from the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, but familial obligations, ones that are already paid for, and going to make it impossible for me to make this bucket list item this time around. As per usual, this is going to be a great game. Unusually, both teams are ranked in the top ten. More is riding on the game this year than in previous years. This atmosphere is going to be positively electric, and neither team is winning by more than a field goal. Give me the Gators.

Kansas State at (8)Oklahoma(-24.5)(2):

I get it. I like watching this offense too. They are fun, explosive, and pure athletes. Kansas State is everything that is not fun. 20 play drives, fullback dives, and a quarterback that doesn’t like to throw. Kansas State’s offense is good enough to play keep away from the high powered Sooners. Oklahoma wins, and it wont really be in question, but they wont cover this line.

(18)Iowa at (17)Penn State(-6.5)(5):

What a joke. Penn State lost to a team with a horrible offense at home, and nearly lost to a team without a defense last week. Iowa has both. Hawkeyes straight up.

(21)South Florida at Houston(-7.5)(3):

I’m not a big fan of that half, but if USF plays poorly enough to get pushed by UConn again, Houston is going to wipe the field with them. They may anyway. I’m lowering the bet a little here, but I still like Houston.

Houston(-11.5) at Navy(2):

I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Houston offense, but I have zero confidence in Navy right now. I’ll go with the Cougars.

Arizona State at USC(-6.5)(3):

I don’t have a ton of confidence in the USC offense just yet, but it’s looking more and more appetizing against this defense. USC’s defense is pretty good, and Arizona State still makes a lot of mistakes. I’ll take USC at home.

Illinois at Maryland(-18.5)(1):

Wow, that’s a lot of points. I know the Illinois offense isn’t very good, but the Maryland offense isn’t exactly a well oiled machine. My first instinct is that this is too many. I’m going to stick with that. Give me Illinois.

Duke(-2.5) at Pittsburgh(3):

Pitt’s offense is solid, but that defense has lost them a lot of games this year. It likely loses this one for them as well. Duke might win this by double digits. I’ll take the Blue Devils.

Middle Tennessee State(-4.5) at Old Dominion(2):

I’m picking Old Dominion at home, so this is your cue to go with MTSU.

Northern Illinois at BYU(-7.5)(2):

Northern Illinois still has a good defense. Good enough to confuse a freshman quarterback. I don’t see the Cougars winning by two scores. I’ll take NIU.

Cincinnati(-9.5) at SMU(2):

I have supreme confidence in this Cincinnati defense here, but can the offense hold up their end of the bargain? Against SMU, I would be surprised if they didn’t. I’ll take the Bearcats.

(12)Kentucky at Missouri(-6.5)(5):

I’ll even give the half. I’m that confident Kentucky wont lose this game. This line is backwards unless Snell doesn’t play. Then I’ll go Mizzou with two betting points. If Snell is in, Kentucky wins.

New Mexico at Utah State(-20.5)(2):

Another big line for the Aggies, but New Mexico doesn’t have much for a defense. Or offense for that matter. The fact that they are on the road is the clincher. Give me Utah State.

Rice at North Texas(-28.5)(2):

Oh good grief! Rice is terrible. I have to go North Texas even with their struggling offense.

(15)Washington(-11.5) at California(2):

That’s a lot of points for a struggling offense. I wish I knew which QB dart Cal would land on this week. Even though I don’t, I still don’t really see Washington covering this on the road. Give me Cal.

UNLV at San Jose State(-2.5)(3):

Huh? When did the Spartans surpass UNLV? I don’t think they have. Rebels straight up.

(14)Washington State at (24)Stanford(-3.5)(3):

This looks like a trap game. Oregon beat Stanford, and Washington State did a good job on the high powered Ducks offense. On top of that, Stanford’s defense has been exposed at times this year. This is definitely a team that can expose it again. I have to go Wazzu here.

(16)Texas A&M at Mississippi State(-2.5)(4):

Oh great. More cowbells. It won’t matter. Aggies straight up.

(22)North Carolina State(-2.5) at Syracuse(2):

The Carrier Dome is tough. Syracuse may have a QB controversy on their hands here. Eric Dungey has led this program to some really good things, but it was Tommy DeVito who pulled it out for the Orange last week. I’ll take the Orange at home because those two quarterbacks can work together depending on how the game is going.

Boise State(-9.5) at Air Force(2):

This is always a dangerous spot for the Broncos. Dangerous enough that I don’t know if they win by two scores. I’ll take Air Force.

Arkansas State(-3.5) at Louisiana(3):

This looks a little low. Of course, every time I hitch my sled up to the Red Wolves, they hit something. This offense just looks too good to lose this though. Give me Arkansas State again.

Tulane at Tulsa(-1.5)(1):

I don’t have a strong opinion on who will win one way or the other. This honestly is a toss up, and it should lead to a very good game. It’s on ESPNU, and should be worth watching. I’ll take Tulane, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Tulsa won at home.

New Mexico State at Texas State(-2.5)(1):

This is precisely the reason I have one point bets. The Aggies have looked like the better team, but that is a relative term. I took New Mexico State last week and they got pushed around. I don’t really see Texas State pushing anything. I’ll go Aggies.

UAB(-16.5) at UTEP(4):

The Blazers are 6-1. They have throttled the teams that they are supposed to beat. They shut out Rice, who is very similar to this UTEP team. Will going on the road really affect the Blazers that much? I doubt it. Give me UAB.

Tennessee at South Carolina(-7.5)(5):

All of the SEC, none of the excitement. Cocks win big!

Florida International(-4.5) at Western Kentucky(3):

The Hilltoppers just lot at home to a one win Old Dominion team. Of course, that one win sent shock waves throughout the college football universe, but it doesn’t make it count for more than one. Give me FIU. If Old Dominion can do it, so can they.

(3)Notre Dame(-23.5) vs. Navy at San Diego(3):

Navy has not looked very good, but this line is way off. This is a rivalry game. Even though the Domers dominated it for decades last century, it has renewed fervor over the last 20 years. Navy isn’t going to win this game, but I would be surprised if they lost by more than 14. Give me Navy.

(6)Texas(-3.5) at Oklahoma State(4):

The last thing the Pokes want to do is help their arch rivals. They wont win this game just to spite Oklahoma. Seriously though, this line is only low because the status of Sam Ehlinger hasn’t been cleared up yet. I’ll make it easier. Texas wins regardless. This defense is good enough to shut down the Oklahoma State offense.

(19)Oregon(-9.5) at Arizona(5):

This is quite a ways too low. This Arizona defense isn’t any less awful just because UCLA didn’t blow them out. Hell, they even made Wilton Speight look good. Oregon by a lot!

Hawaii at Fresno State(-24.5)(2):

This line is just high enough to give me a bit of pause. Fresno is going to win this rather easily, but can the defense keep up the domination against a Hawaii offense that is going to throw it 60 times? I’ll take Hawaii, but they aren’t in any danger of winning this outright.

San Diego State(-2.5) at Nevada(3):

Don’t let last week fool you. It was a rivalry game. That isn’t to say that San Diego State’s offense is suddenly good. They are missing too many pieces for that to be true. However, they are good enough to beat Nevada. I’ll take the Aztecs. This defense is still really good.

We have another big slate with 55 games this week. I ended up betting my most points of the season, so we will see how that goes. I only have four one point bets this week, by far the lowest of the season. I ended up with 19 each of the two and three pointers, seven four pointers, and a season high six five point bets. It’s time to win some back!