Martin Truex Jr. makes Joe Gibbs Racing the team to beat in ’19 … unless it’s still Stewart-Haas

The expected move of Martin Truex Jr. to Joe Gibbs Racing for 2019 could make Toyota’s top organization unstoppable, but Ford’s premier team isn’t going to just roll over.

Sometimes even the expected NASCAR Silly Season moves are full of intrigue. Earlier this week, the announcement that most fans and pundits were waiting for arrived, as Martin Truex Jr. will indeed join Joe Gibbs Racing for the 2019 NASCAR season. It’s the best possible landing spot for Truex and crew chief Cole Pearn, and it has to put the rest of the Cup Series garage on notice as it makes one of the top teams even stronger, maybe even cementing its claim as the top organization in the sport.

Simply based on 2018 performances, only one other team really can hang with the 2019 JGR lineup, and that’s Stewart-Haas Racing. While much is still to be decided before the NASCAR Playoffs end at Homestead, SHR was top to bottom the best group this year, with all four of its drivers not only making the postseason but advancing to the Round of 8 as well.

So which group has the edge going into next year? Let’s break it down based on what we know so far, as well as examining the factors most likely to blow all of that supposed knowledge away.

Talent at the top

Kevin Harvick won the most races through 34 weeks in 2018, taking the checkered flag eight times (though the benefits of two of his wins were wiped out by post-race inspection penalties). Yet there’s really no comparison here: The 2019 edition of Joe Gibbs Racing will include two of the Big 3, with Truex and Kyle Busch combining for 11 victories so far. That’s a one-two punch that no other team will be able to claim, unless Clint Bowyer makes a miracle charge and wins at both Phoenix and Homestead.

Advantage: Joe Gibbs Racing

Overall driver depth

This is really close. When adding Truex and removing Daniel Suarez, both teams won the exact same number of races this season with their 2019 rosters at 12 each. The difference is that while Erik Jones grabbed a win, Denny Hamlin did not. In contrast, SHR had every one of its drivers visit Victory Lane at least once, giving it the slightest of edges here. However, there’s a big question mark we’ll get to in just a second that could tip things back the other way.

Advantage: Stewart-Haas Racing (for now)

Three factors that could change everything

1. Who is driving the 41 for SHR next season?

This is the biggest remaining Silly Season question now that Truex is definitely in the 19, and it’s a big one. There’s a very good chance this is going to be Daniel Suarez, which makes this comparison between the two teams even more interesting since he’d be heading from one to another. On paper, he’s the weakest link among the eight drivers, never having won a Cup Series race. That alone could shift the balance of power to JGR.

Yet Suarez is also no slouch, and there’s precedent for improved performance for drivers joining Stewart-Haas (see also: Almirola, Aric). If he can win even once next season, he’ll have filled the Kurt Busch role perfectly. But until he does, this seems like a huge question mark, and if the 41 seat is filled by anyone other than Suarez, there’s even more potential for SHR to slip ever so slightly overall.

2. What effect will the new Ford Mustang have?

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Though Ford teams have been anxious for a new car body for several years, they only have to talk to their Chevrolet counterparts to know that can be a “be careful what you wish for” proposition. The Ford Mustang is on the way to the Cup Series in 2019, and since it turns out the Fusion was just fine for now, that could be a stumbling block.

Or it might not, since every team for every manufacturer has to figure out NASCAR’s new rules package anyway. It’s just worth mentioning that Stewart-Haas Racing will have to adjust to those rules and a new body, while Joe Gibbs Racing will not.

3. Could Cole Pearn make a difference for the whole JGR effort?

Though Truex is the headliner, as drivers always are, there’s definitely a school of thought that it’s his crew chief, Pearn, who is truly at the top of his area of the sport. His arrival on the 19 along with Truex keeps a championship-winning partnership intact, and that’s obviously important for that car to be up to speed right away.

Yet with Pearn now truly in the JGR camp instead of in a “technical alliance” as he was with Furniture Row Racing, he’s now going to be truly sharing his insight with the other Gibbs teams. This is perhaps the most difficult part of the whole situation to quantify, but if there’s even a tiny chance he can help Truex’s new teammates find a bit more performance, he’ll turn out to be valuable beyond just the car he’s working on.

With all due respect to Stewart-Haas Racing, which earned the right to call itself the top NASCAR Cup Series team of 2018, all of the unknowns add up to potentially favor Joe Gibbs Racing or potentially stymie SHR ever so slightly. It won’t be Truex alone, then, that elevates JGR to the No. 1 spot, but all signs point to his impending arrival making the Coach’s group the team that everyone will be chasing from the week after Daytona all the way to the championship next year.