Luka Doncic and the art of passing

In less than a season, Luka Doncic has enacted a brand by way of the step back jumper. Behind James Harden, Doncic may be the most frequent step back artist. It’s a tool that’s accelerated his rise as a 20-point scorer, exceeding many of the expectations people laid out for his rookie year bucket-getting. But leading up to the draft, Doncic was also billed as a virtuoso facilitator capable of whizzing skip passes to either corner, rifling dimes out of ball-screen action and hurling lobs to big men.

Early on, some of his facilitating prowess was muted next to Dennis Smith Jr. Doncic didn’t always act as a primary initiator and instead, served as an off-ball piece at times.  As Smith struggled to adapt without the ball, Doncic — more comfortable off the ball than his teammate — spotted up or functioned as an elbow distributor to properly guide sets along. His passing was featured but not to the degree it should have been. It took time for the Dallas Mavericks to truly embrace their stocky 6-foot-8 wunderkind.

When Smith first missed extended time with a sprained right wrist from Dec. 5 to Dec. 26 — a 10-game stretch in which he only played once — Doncic began to assert himself as a ball-handler and passer. During that span, he dished out 7.5 assists to 2.9 turnovers.  Previously, in his first 21 games, his assist-to-turnover ratio was 4.2 to 3.7. That December period has sparked a turn, as the Slovenian is averaging 6.2 dimes to 2.9 giveaways over the past 33 games (beginning on Dec. 5).

He’s bringing the ball up the floor more often, finally handed a role best tailored for his game. What makes Doncic so special is that at 19, he already manipulates and reads the defense like an All-Star guard. This isn’t just the type of hyperbole we ink about rookies who are ahead of their perceived development curves. On a regular basis, Doncic genuinely knows how defenses will react and anticipates their movements.

A mental capacity well beyond his age — particularly the way he shifts defenders around with his eyes — is his best trait as a playmaker. Even more than the soccer-style overhead tosses, one-handed slingshots to rollers or deft touch on alley-oops. It’s not that he can’t fit the ball into tight quarters. Rather, his optical craft means those sequences aren’t necessary most of the time.

One of Doncic’s favorite ways to orchestrate control over the defense with his eyes is by looking off the roller. He’ll lure defenders into the paint before firing passes to the open man in the corner:

On each of those baskets, he gives no indication that the corner entered his thought process. He locks in on the diving big man and helpside defenders fall for it. Twice, he snaps it to the rim protector’s assignment and pulls them out of the paint. If his teammates wish to attack the closeout, there won’t be anybody to padlock the key. Other passes are available but Doncic exhibits quick-witted decision-making to generate the best shot available.

The plays themselves are not all that rare for young guys. Others could execute similar ones. But recognizing the reasons behind them and how they’re designed distinguishes Doncic from his peers. Knowing which pass will most effectively compromise the defense is incredibly valuable and important. Flashy playmaking for its own sake doesn’t move the needle much. Doncic ensures his highlight-reel dimes are impactful in both substance and shine.

Similarly, he also harnesses the magnetism of shooters on the perimeter to unlock the paint for bigs:

The first time, Doncic freezes both potential taggers with the threat of a pass to the corner or wing. Note how Trevor Ariza doesn’t commit to DeAndre Jordan inside because Doncic hints at feeding Wes Matthews for 3. Then, he engages in a staring contest with Jalen Brunson — paralyzing Jamal Murray — and whirls it to Jordan for the open jam.

Including passes, Doncic ranks in the 80th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and is eighth in points per possession (1.01) among 32 players with 800-plus possessions. While some of that is noisy and reliant on teammates converting shots, it also conveys his knack for producing efficient opportunities.

He utilizes roll gravity, floor spacing and his own scoring threat out of the pick-and-roll. Maximizing all the options a pick-and-roll present makes the action that much more dangerous. Whether or not they finish the play, Doncic’s wits and approach guarantee both the shooters and the roller are involved. Defenses have to account for every facet and cannot sell out to stop one ahead of the other.

Beyond a supreme confidence that he is brighter than opponents  — underscored when he instinctually throws passes, assuming where defenders are positioned, rather than actually checking — Doncic also wields witty spatial awareness with his own teammates. Understanding how your guys operate and maneuver off the ball is a skill that can take years to develop. Doncic has nailed it before the All-Star break.

When he probes the lane, Doncic forecasts how guys will react. Once the defense has shown its hand, he pounces:

Not only is that a testament to evolving chemistry but also speaks to Doncic’s peripheral vision. If instincts aren’t fueling those plays, it’s peripheral vision empowering him to track off-ball movement without swiveling his head or body. On-the-move passes are one thing. It’s another to remain fully in stride, eyes locked toward a goal, and complete them.

With Smith now a member of the New York Knicks, Doncic’s emergence as an on-ball maestro is only going to continue. Bouts of erratic and overly bold passing still flare up from time to time but he’s displaying uncommon playmaking guile.

Lacking the physical profile of other point-forwards like LeBron James, Ben Simmons or Giannis Antetokounmpo, Doncic’s basketball IQ enables him to engineer many of the passes they devise with their inherent gifts. Just as their natural athleticism allows them to thread the ball into small openings, Doncic relies on mental acuity to simply expand those slivers of space — though his precision and fastball speed on passes are athletic talents in their own right.

As his distributing numbers swell, he’ll eventually become known for some trademark feeds. Unlike those step back 3s, though, he won’t be doing so in somebody else’s shadow. Those no-look, petrifying assists will be all his.

*All stats are accurate prior to Feb. 13 games.*