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Nylon Calculus: How LeBron James finally passed Michael Jordan

By Ian Levy

LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 6: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers reacts after passing Michael Jordan on the NBA All-Time Scoring Leaders List against the Denver Nuggets on March 6 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 6: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers reacts after passing Michael Jordan on the NBA All-Time Scoring Leaders List against the Denver Nuggets on March 6 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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LeBron James’ career has been a study in challenging expectations, in redefining the modern NBA star and, with both excellence and consistency, pushing the outer edges of what was presumed to be statistically possible.

He is already in the top-10 all-time in assists, games played, field goals made and attempted, and free throws made and attempted. He’s in the top-20 all-time in 3-pointers made and attempted and steals. By the time he retires, he will likely be in the top-20 in defensive rebounds as well.

His climb up the all-time scoring leaderboard is one of the most compelling subplots in his legacy and last night he passed a huge milestone, leaping Michael Jordan for fourth all-time. The implications of passing the most iconic wing scorer in league history are deep, especially considering how much Jordan’s career was a template for LeBron’s. But, as always, LeBron’s path to greatness was entirely his own.

The graph below shows the career progression of the top seven scorers in NBA history.

Obviously, the early start LeBron got is a big factor in his positioning on the leaderboards. He and Kobe were roughly at the same total at the end of their age-19 seasons but after that, LeBron had the highest scoring total of anyone in this group at every age. Kobe’s last season was his age-37 year and in all likelihood, LeBron will pass him early next year, his age-35 season.

If LeBron were to play until he’s 39 or 40 like Karl Malone or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar there’s almost no way he wouldn’t end up as the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. But the most impressive aspect of this feat may be that LeBron is accomplishing it through consistency. In the nine seasons since he first left Miami, LeBron has never averaged more than 27.5 points per game, but he’s never averaged less than 25.3. In fact, that lack of extreme volume scoring makes him stand out compared to the rest of these top scorers.

LeBron has averaged 30 or more points per game for a season just twice. Malone only did it once. Wilt Chamberlain did it nine times. Jordan did it eight times. Even Kobe did it three times.

If we filter everyone else out from the same chart and focus on just Jordan and LeBron, we can see how much steeper the slope of Jordan’s line is, at least initially, and how LeBron passing him is both a function of LeBron starting young and Jordan missing several seasons.

If Jordan had not stepped away from basketball LeBron would likely still have a long way to go before catching his idol. As to his chances of overtaking Kareem for the top spot, they, like everything, rely on his endurance and consistency.

If LeBron were to maintain his current scoring average of 27.1 points per game it would take him about 225 games to pass Kareem. Playing in 15 of the Lakers’ 17 remaining games this season and then averaging 70 games a season over the next three would get him there. However, that relies on the assumption that LeBron could play three more seasons without his scoring average dropping off. Now, to be fair, his scoring average this season is essentially the same as it was in 2004-05 when he was 20 years old and 2011-12 when he was 27 and right in the middle of his hypothetical athletic prime.

His apparent invulnerability to age-related decline is one of the most remarkable things about LeBron’s career trajectory but we have to assume that, at some point, he’s going to slow down a bit more, right?

Using his current scoring average as a starting point and assuming he plays 15 more games this season and roughly 70-game seasons moving forward, a five percent decline in his scoring average only tacks on a handful of extra games he’d have to play to pass Kareem. For example, if he played 15 more games this season with his scoring average and then next season it dropped to 25.8 (a five-percent decline), he’d need 221 more games at that pace instead of 210 at the higher pace. A 70-game season at that pace followed by another five-percent decline (down to 24.5 in 2020-21) would leave LeBron with 158 more games (roughly two seasons) to get there.

The likelihood gets increasingly fuzzy from there but it’s well within the realm of possibility. The basic building blocks of his record will be the same — seasons played, games played per season, points per game. The more he can do to prevent a drop-off in those three categories the better his chances of making it to the top of the heap.

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