DraftKings PGA: 2019 The Players Championship Picks and Analysis

DraftKings PGA: PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL – MAY 13: Webb Simpson of the United States celebrates with his caddie Paul Tesori on the 18th green after winning during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on May 13, 2018 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

DraftKings PGA: 2019 The Players Championship

Welcome to the early DraftKings pricing for the 5th major, or the 1st unofficial major of the year: The Players Championship. This is the strongest field, with every PGA pro wanting a piece of the $12,500,000 purse. The entire top-25 OWGR golfers will be in the field this week, so the tournament is truly up for grabs.

TPC Sawgrass will host The Players Championship in March for the 1st time in years (the first 33 editions were held in March, then the event was shifted to May). The Pete Dye designed course is a classic Pete Dye course: it is set up to intimidate you off the tee, punish you for mistakes, and favors no specific golfer.

That is why we have yet to see a golfer repeat winner at this event. Webb Simpson is the defending champion, after separating from the field with a 66, 63, 68 through his first 3 rounds (really it was won after round 2 though).

Webb shot a 73 on his final 18 and still cruised to victory, winning by 4 strokes. It was the most dominant performance at one of the 5 2018 majors. Si Woo Kim won the event in 2017, Jason Day (fresh off a WD at the API) in 2016, and Rickie Fowler in 2015.

The course is set in Ponte-Verda Beach, Florida, with a traditional Florida feel showcasing fairways lined by trees, swampland and lots of sand. Bermuda is the dominant grass-type this week. The Bermuda is overseeded with Bent, Rye, and Poa, but the overseeeded aspect will not be in full bloom due to this year’s March start. TPC Sawgrass sits at 7,189 yards.

The par-72 challenges the world’s best by many different means. Bombers will be subdued by dog-legs and hazards. Short hitters will be challenged with long par-5’s and a should-I-go-for-it par 4. Due to the Pete Dye design, every golfer will be shaping their approaches in from similar distances.

The greens are small, fast, and surrounded by Bermuda, so missing the greens is a huge penalty. This week, like most weeks, I will be focusing on shots gained Approach.

Key Stats

Approach Gained

Ball striking Gained

Bermuda Gained

Par-5 Gained

Opportunities Gained

Pete Dye Gained

As always, you should be building your own models. FantasyNational.com and FutureOfFantasy.com are great tools to use.

DraftKings PGA: PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL – MAY 08: Brooks Koepka lines up a putt on the 17th green during round two of THE PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium course on May 8, 2015 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images) /

The Players Championship – Picks

$10,200 Justin Rose

Justin Rose is playing as good of golf as anyone in the field. He ranks 1st In my model, and leads the field in strokes gained and DK scoring over the last 12 and 36 rounds. Rose’s history at this course is solid, not spectacular, with finishes of T23, T65, and T19 in his last three Players.

His price is far too low for the world class golfer that he is. Rose will likely garner around 20% ownership this week due to his attractive price. I will be severely overweight, riding his excellent form.

$10,000 Brooks Koepka

I am not usually aboard the Koepka train, but I will make an exception this week. Koepka is coming off of a missed cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which I am hoping will suppress his ownership. Koepka plays difficult courses extremely well, demonstrating that last year by winning not one, but two majors.

Koepka is 5th in my model, and ranks 2nd in DK scoring at TPC Sawgrass. He is 4th in opportunities gained over his last 12 rounds and ranks 1st in SG Par-5 scoring over his last 36 rounds. It is crazy early to be projecting ownership, but I see Brooks carrying about 15% this week.

$9,100 Sergio Garcia

Sergio will likely be one of the highest owned golfers this week. He is striking the ball superbly (1st in SGA over his last 12 and 36 rounds), loves this course (ranks 1st in DK scoring at TPC Sawgrass), and is playing great golf this year (T6 and T9 in his last 2 PGA events). At this price, it is difficult to fade the best ball-striker in the field who boasts a victory in 2008 and 5 top 5’s at this event.

DraftKings PGA: PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL – MAY 13: Matt Kuchar of the United States celebrates with the trophy after his two-stroke victory during the final round to win THE PLAYERS Championship held at THE PLAYERS Stadium course at TPC Sawgrass on May 13, 2012 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

The Players Championship – Values

$8,000 Matt Kuchar

After the whole Caddy-gate situation, the golf world has shunned Matt Kuchar. There has been a paradigm shift, and now Kuchar is one of golf’s villains. I hope that suppresses Kuchar’s ownership this week!

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Kuchar owns this course, and is playing as well as anyone in the field, already with 2 wins this year. Kuchar has won this event before, and he ranks 2nd in SGT and 8th in DK scoring at TPC Sawgrass. I am hoping his ownership is below 10% this week, but I anticipate something closer to 15%.

$7,900 Paul Casey

My model loves Paul Casey! His irons have been solid (12th in the field in SGA), he crushes par-5’s (3rd in the field SG:Par 5 scoring), excels at Pete Dye courses (6th in the field), and has solid course history (25th in SGT at Sawgrass).

In 8 PGA events this season, Paul Casey has 6 top-20’s. Aside from a missed cut at the Sony Open, Casey has yet to finish outside of the top-25 this year. The ownership will be high, but it is difficult to fade Casey this week.

$6,600 Ryan Palmer

I have not played Ryan Palmer all year, and I generally fade the guy. However, the stats back up Ryan Palmer this week. Palmer ranks 19th in my model, ranking 12th in SGA over his last 12 and 13th over his last 36 rounds.

He checks the box in par-5 scoring and opportunities gained. Do not get me wrong, Palmer is a risky play, given that he loves posting big numbers on courses with water. However, I will lean on the vet at this near-minimum price tag. Palmer ranks 15th in DK scoring at this course, so he has some affinity for this layout. Here is to hoping Palmer can avoid the big number this week.

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