DraftKings PGA: Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks and Analysis
DraftKings PGA: Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks and Analysis
How about that Honda Classic finish! It had everything! Ryan Palmer posted the number that lasted until the final groups conquered the Bear Trap. Just food for thought for the PGA tour: every tournament should end in a reachable par 5 surrounded by water. That was fun! Killa Keith Mitchell drops a putt on 18 to win the tournament, breaking a 3-way tie between Mitchell, Brooks Koepka, and Rickie Fowler. What a huge putt! There is no way he was winning the tournament in a playoff.
The Tour stays in Florida, making the quick trip north to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill Club and Lodge has a rich tradition with this tournament, so we do not have a shortage of course history. Its long (7,419 yards), and always plays pretty difficult. If the wind picks up, the course can be a nightmare. The comparisons with this tournament and the Honda Classic are fair, but this course is a tad longer and the greens are much faster. The field is also much stronger this week.
The 2018 edition of the Arnold Palmer Invitational saw Rory McIlroy get crazy hot with the flat stick in the final round, blitzing the field by 3 strokes. DeChambeau, Rose, Stenson and Tiger rounded out the top 5. So yeah, it was a pretty top-heavy leader board.
Ball-striking is going to be the most important stat to look at this week. Crisp irons on approach and when clubbing down off-the-tee are pertinent on this course. The rough is not a major penalty, but the water lining a lot of these greens and fairways is. I will lean on golfers who played last week at the Honda, but it does not matter in my algorithm as much as some tournaments.
Key Stats
Approach Gained
Ball-Striking Gained
Fast Greens Gained
Bermuda Grass Gained
DraftKings PGA – Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks
Tiger was my pick, but with him out I will pivot to Justin Rose. Rose was the best golfer in the world last year, and he let his good play seep into the 2019 season with a win at Pebble Beach. Do not be afraid of the Honma clubs. Rose is probably still the best golfer in the world, and he seems to love this track. Rose has finishes of 3, 13, 9, MC, 2, 15, and 3 since 2011. That is elite course history, and it is amazing to me that he has not won this tournament based on those results. What is not to love about his game? He is accurate off the tee, strikes his irons, his short game is superb, and he is a plus putter. Play Rose with confidence.
Leishman was playing incredible through the swing season, then the hot hand cooled as the Tour shifted to California. I am hoping that the ball-striking returns to that elite level at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We know that this course fits Leishman’s eye. He won the event in 2017 and is 7/9 in made cuts with 3 top-10 finishes. I will like Leishman here even more if the wind picks up. He loves fast greens, so as long as the ball striking is appropriate, a high finish is to be expected.
The Florida native played solid golf through the Cali swing, a place that he usually cannot tame. I think that means he is in form. Horshel is back in his familiar Bermuda grass, and this is a track that he knows extremely well. Billy Ho has never missed a cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He is a perfect 6 for 6, with 2 top-20 finishes. Horshel is a streaky golfer and plays better in the comfort of the Southeast. I will ride with Billy Ho’s solid form.
DraftKings PGA – Arnold Palmer Invitational Values
7,600 Michael Thompson
I will continue to play Thompson until the bottom falls out. The guy is on an absolute tear. His tee-to-green game has been at an elite level for the course of two months. We know Lexi’s brother knows his way around a putter, but the ball-striking is where my focus has been. Last week the ball-striking returned to average levels, but he was still able to cash a T16. Bermuda is his preferred surface, so I will continue to ride the hot hand.
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7,000 Brian Gay
Bay Hill is probably a little long for Brian Gay. His skill set is more suited to accuracy tracks, but I think he has a great shot to make the cut and put up some solid DK scoring. Gay’s long irons are a strength of his game, and his putter is always a weapon. The Florida native’s game has been very solid since he obviously found something last season at this event. Since his T22 last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Gay has made 25/28 cuts.
6,300 Sam Burns
The season has not gone as expected for the PGA youngster. Burns has made less than 50% of his cuts, he is losing strokes on approach, and his putter no longer looks like his crutch. So why am I on the kid’s scent this week? Bermuda is his preferred surface, he struck the ball better last week, and he had 3 rounds under par here in 2018. For a near-minimum 6,300 I will take a flyer on Sammy B.
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