DraftKings PGA: Players Championship Projections and Pivots

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL – MAY 11: Tiger Woods of the United States lines up a putt on the 17th green during the second round of THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on May 11, 2018 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) DraftKings PGA /

DraftKings PGA: 2019 The Players Championship

Major season is upon us in DraftKings PGA! Yes, we start with an unofficial major, but true golf fans count The Players. The best golfers travel to TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida for The Players Championship. If you want picks and a course preview that can be found here.

This article is purely an article projecting ownership projections for DraftKings contests this week. There are a lot of factors that contribute to ownership projections. DFS content, recency bias, and tournament history are 3 of the largest contributors to DraftKings ownership any given week. Injury can also play a crucial role. For example, Jason Day and Tiger Woods both withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week with back/neck issues. Tiger likely would have garnered close to the ownership that Jason Day (>20% in most GPP formats) saw. Luckily for us DFSers, Tiger withdrew prior to the start of the tournament. The 25% of Day backers were not as fortunate.

Tiger and Day will most likely come in much lower than 20% this week due to concern for another mid-tournament withdrawal. However, if the industry talks these players up all week and spews stats about how Day always top 5’s after a WD, then my ownership projections may fall short of your expectations.

Enough with the hypotheticals. You want to know which golfers are going to garner the highest ownership. While we all know this is not an exact science, I have done fairly decent with ownership projections this year. Just know, even though I give a percentage, use that percentage as a qualitative guideline rather than an exact value. But I’m confident my projections will be accurate for this weeks DraftKings Millionaire Maker tournament. Without further ado…

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL – MAY 11: Tiger Woods of the United States putts on the 17th green during the second round of THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on May 11, 2018 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

DraftKings PGA: The Players Championship – Ownership Projections and Pivots 10-11K

The Chalk:

Justin Thomas 11,100 – 18%

Rory McIlroy 10,800 – 22%

The Pivot:

Tiger Woods 10,500 – 15%

Justin Rose 10,200- 13%

Reasoning:

It is difficult to stomach fading Thomas and McIlroy. Both golfers are playing as good of golf as anyone in the field. Both also possess very good course history.

Although I plan to play JT and Rory, I love pivoting and going overweight on Tiger and Rose. Tiger is my favorite play here! I already bet him at 28/1. I love how he sets up, being an excellent ball striker and a plus Bermuda putter. Rose I will just roll with because he is significantly discounted, he has played well here in the past, and he is coming off of 2 poor rounds. When everyone is jumping off, I will be backing possibly the best player in the world.

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL – MAY 15: Rickie Fowler (2ndR) of the United States presents the trophy to Jason Day (R) of Australia after Day won the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship at the Stadium course at TPC Sawgrass on May 15, 2016 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images) /

DraftKings PGA: The Players Championship – Ownership Projections and Pivots 8-9K

The Chalk:

Sergio Garcia 9,100 – 21%

Tommy Fleetwood 8,800 – 21%

Fancesco Molinari 8,600 – 18%

Hideki Matsuyama 8,300 – 25%

Adam Scott 8,200 – 18%

The Pivot:

Jason Day 9,200 – 6%

Patrick Reed 8,100 – 9%

Reasoning:

Jason Day has finishes of T5, T60, and 1st in his last three The Players. He ranks 3rd in SG:TOT and DK scoring over his last 12 rounds, but is being priced like the 10th best golfer in the field. His ownership is going to be criminally low after burning 25% of entries last week.

8100 is a fair price for Patrick Reed. His ball-striking has not been there yet this year, and his decent results have been fueled by his elite short game. Last week, Reed gained strokes on approach for the first time in 4 events. If he can keep the hot irons working, you will have a lot of leverage against the field with Reed. Also, how many puns will NBC use if St. Patrick Reed is in contention of St. Patrick’s Day?

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL – MAY 11: Martin Kaymer of Germany celebrates with the winner’s trophy after his one-stroke victory at THE PLAYERS Championship on The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on May 11, 2014 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

DraftKings PGA: The Players Championship – Ownership Projections and Pivots 6-7K

The Chalk:

Paul Casey 7,900 – 23%

More from FanSided

Ian Poulter 7,600 – 20%

Rafa Cabrero Bella 7,400 – 22%

Byeong Hun An 6,800 – 15%

The Pivot:

Marc Leishman 7,600 – 13%

Branden Grace 7,400 – 5%

Martin Kaymer 7,300 – 6%

Reasoning:

When we get down to this bottom range, there are so many more options to choose from and the volatility is greater. I will ride with good course history guys who are playing solid golf. Leishman has made 6/7 cuts here since 2012. Grace is 5/5 with made cuts at this event, and Kaymer has made 9/10 cuts.

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Check out more articles by the author and make sure to follow @Mystery_Main for up-to-date injuries, withdrawals, and ownership projections up until the tournament. Also, follow @FantasyCPR for your daily fantasy fix.