Canelo Alvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs: Preview and prediction

Canelo Alvarez and Daniel Jacobs fight for command of three out of four middleweight boxing titles. Here’s who wins this fight and how.

When a young 15-year-old boy from Guadalajara, Mexico entered the boxing ring in 2005 as a professional, nobody thought that he would become the face of the sport. However, Canelo Alvarez (51-1-2, 35 KOs) did just that. If he wants to enjoy the fruits of his labor, he needs to defeat IBF middleweight titleholder Daniel Jacobs on Saturday, May 4.

Alvarez comes from a boxing family. His six older brothers were all boxers, so as the baby of the family, Alvarez felt inspired to follow their lead. His natural ability allowed him to surpass all of them.

He started training at 13, won several Mexican national titles in two years and turned pro just two years after picking up the sport. As he matured in age, his boxing skills flourished.

Alvarez is 28 years old and has 54 professional fights, 379 rounds and nearly 14 years of boxing experience. In that time, he has only lost once, a one-sided boxing clinic against Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013. Alvarez learned his lesson and defeated Erislandy Lara, Miguel Cotto and Gennady Golovkin. He would like to add Jacobs’ name to his list of vanquished foes.

Jacobs (35-2, 29 KOs) is widely regarded as the third-best middleweight in the world behind Alvarez and Golovkin. People would like to see a third bout between Alvarez and Golovkin, but it has been done before. Jacobs gives Alvarez a fresh opponent and something new for fight fans to see.

There’s a lot to like about Jacobs. At 5-foot-11, he’s three inches taller than Alvarez. He also has a three-inch reach advantage. Alvarez is the smaller fighter, but he’s used to being the little man in the middleweight division. He makes up for his size with athleticism, skill and intelligence.

Jacobs was a highly-decorated amateur who won several U.S. national championships. He has two losses on his record. One came early in his career, against Dmitry Pirog in 2010. Pirog was a fantastic boxer who had to give up the sport due to injury. He’s probably one of the best fighters you’ve never heard of.

Jacobs’ second loss came against Golovkin in 2017. It was a close fight, but Golovkin won a unanimous decision by slim margins on all three scorecards. Jacobs believes he deserved the win and Alvarez says that he thought Golovkin lost that contest, too, for what it’s worth.

Just because Jacobs lost to Golovkin and Alvarez owns a victory over him doesn’t mean that Alvarez automatically should be favored over Jacobs. Styles make fights, and Jacobs is more of a boxer than Golovkin.

Looking at Jacobs’ seven fights before his previous bout against Sergiy Derevyanchenko, he had an average of 46.6 punches thrown per round according to CompuBox punch stats. Even though Jacobs isn’t the most active punching middleweight, Alvarez is more economical.

Before his matchup with Rocky Fielding, an absolute mismatch, Alvarez had a 12-fight average of 43.7 punches thrown per round based on CompuBox stats. That average included two bouts with Golovkin.

Based on those CompuBox fight comparisons, they both land around 15 punches per round but Alvarez is a bit more accurate by several percentage points. Both like to work off the jab, but Alvarez’s style is more versatile. He can counterpunch, or he can brawl. He showed the ability to change styles in his two contests with Golovkin.

Jacobs throws more power punches, but that might lead to problems against Alvarez. If Jacobs throws wild punches, Alvarez’s defensive skills are good enough to avoid a majority of those blows. Look for Jacobs to swing and miss which will allow Alvarez to counter effectively with his faster hand speed. Jacobs throws more power punches than Alvarez, but he also misses them at a higher rate.

Look for Alvarez-the-slick-counterpuncher to appear against Jacobs. This fight will go the distance. Don’t be surprised if this is a more passive bout than expected. Jacobs will try to walk Alvarez down, but he won’t let his hands go once he sees how fast Alvarez is to counter his attacks. Alvarez wins this bout by being patient and finding openings when they present themselves. Odds are that there are no shocking moments, and Alvarez wins this contest by the book.