Thiago Santos will need to follow these five keys to victory to pull off the massive upset over Jon Jones at UFC 239.
When Thiago Santos steps into the cage at UFC 239, he’ll find himself across from arguably the greatest MMA fighter of all time. Defeating Jon Jones is a gargantuan task. Accordingly, Santos is installed as a four-to-one underdog, and not many, if any, pundits are expecting the Brazilian to give Jones much of a challenge.
That’s not to say that defeating Jones is impossible. Like any other human, Jones bleeds blood, pulsates picograms, and is not an infallible fighter. With that in mind, how exactly can Santos pull off the upset?
1. Be first
For all the improvements Jones has made to his striking over the years, he is still not a comfortable counter-striker. Left to attack on his own terms, though, Jones is incredibly dangerous with his never-ending variety of strikes. Simply put, Santos cannot afford to let Jones initiate the exchanges; that’s a fight he is destined to lose.
Above all else, Santos is a potent offensive fighter. Defensively, he leaves a fair amount to be desired. The math here is simple, then: by initiating the striking exchanges, Santos limits the strikes Jones will throw (because Jones rarely counter-strikes) and maximizes his own skillset — offense.
2. Let the kicks fly
More than just an offensively potent fighter, Santos is specifically a fantastically dangerous kicker. Jones also happens to be a talented kicker. With that in mind, Santos cannot afford to cede the kicking range to Jones. When Jones kicks, Santos should return with his own kicks; and even if Jones isn’t kicking, Santos should be taking the initiative (see point one above) by letting his own kicks fly.
An active kicking game is more than just Santos dancing with the partner he came with. Because he is such a powerful kicker, Santos has the ability to scare Jones off of his own kicking game, thereby negating one of his opponent’s strongest weapons. Moreover, attritive kicks specifically to the body and legs of Jones are Santos’ best hope for being competitive in the later rounds, if the fight lasts that long.
3. Take risks early
While Santos should certainly do what he can to keep the fight competitive should it last into the championship rounds, there are nonetheless some simple truths at play here. Santos has never seen the fourth round; Jones has fought into the fourth round eight times. Santos has never fought for a title, but Jones has been doing exclusively that since 2011. Santos is generally inefficient and explosive; Jones is a master of understanding and controlling the pace. In every regard, a long fight favors Jones.
Along the lines of Santos dancing with the partner he came with, he shouldn’t be afraid to take risks early. Anthony Smith tried to fight a safe fight with Jones, and never once threatened the champion. Santos is at his best when he is a furious ball of offense, blitzing forward behind heavy, albeit wild, strikes. If he wants to upset Jones, he must take risks early, when he is still at his most explosive and offensively potent.
4. Stay off the cage
Santos’ prodigious offensive talents are inherently tied to his freedom of movement and space to work. Against the cage, Santos’ feet are forced square, taking away his kicks, zapping his punches of power, and leaving him defensively vulnerable.
Also, and importantly, Jones is one of the best overall clinch fighters in MMA history. Should Santos find himself against the fence in the clinch with Jones, he is in immediate danger of eating trademark Jones elbows, getting taken down, or simply being held for minutes at a time while Jones drains Santos of energy and power. Santos must avoid the cage at all costs.
5. Act urgently on the mat
Of course, Santos should avoid the takedown; that should go without saying. But if (and likely when) Santos finds himself on the mat underneath Jones, he cannot afford to play it safe and bide his time.
Urgently working his way back to his feet works in Santos’ favor for a couple of reasons. First, while Jones is a dangerous ground and pound artist, his is not typically an opportunistic submission grappler; Santos faces little risk of a surprise guillotine or back-take as he explodes back to his feet. Second, because Santos’ chances of winning go down the longer the fight lasts, he can’t allow Jones to drag the fight to deep waters by spending precious minutes on the mat. If he is under Jones, Santos should avoid just holding Jones to prevent damage; he should immediately and aggressively get to his feet.
UFC International Fight Week 2019 takes place the week of July 3-7 in Las Vegas, NV and plays host to UFC 239 which takes place on Saturday, July 6, 2019, from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.