UCF has yet to receive much love from voters in the AP Poll after being notoriously snubbed by the College Football Playoff committee. What’s left for the Knights to prove?
Black Friday 2018 was aptly named for the UCF Knights. Entering their clash with rival South Florida, UCF’s utility knife of a quarterback, McKenzie Milton, was carving up defenses. He was responsible for 34 TDs and almost 3,000 combined yards. Then tragedy struck. A gruesome knee injury knocked Milton out for the year and simultaneously wrote the Knights off as a team.
The Knights, however, won their conference championship but were overmatched by a Joe Burrow led LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. It was their first (and only) loss since Dec. 17, 2016, one certainly forgivable starting a backup quarterback against a top-five defense.
Now, three weeks into the 2019 season, the Knights hit the road to square off against its second consecutive Power 5 opponent. After dismantling Stanford, No. 15 UCF is favored by 12.5 for their game with the Pittsburgh Panthers in what is their last non-conference game before bowl season.
If UCF takes care of business, only one question will remain: what do the Knights have to do to get some love?
It is very easy to write off UCF as a mid-major team, punching above its weight class a few times a year. Been there. Cringed at that. Also, there’s Utah, now a certified Big Boy, who did it twice with future USC head coach Urban Meyer and again before joining the Pac 12 three years later.
But wait!
Consider that the Boise States, Hawaiis and Utahs of the world have had fleeting success in finding their way into the horror show known as the BCS. The year before the Broncos shocked the world en route to an undefeated season they went 9-4. The year after? 10-3.
The year before Hawaii flew to Louisiana for the privilege of getting punched in the mouth by Georgia, the Warriors went 11-3. The year after that they went 7-7.
Utah, the most successful football mid-major in recent years, couldn’t keep it up either. Under Meyer, the Utes went 10-2 before their undefeated season and 7-5 the year after. When they handed Nick Saban and Alabama a shocking bowl loss in 2008, they were following up a 9-4 season. The year after their Sugar Bowl win they went 10-3.
The point is this: it’s nearly impossible to go undefeated, even as the premier team in a soft(er) conference. UCF is doing what mid-majors in football haven’t. They are having sustained success. Despite starting a true freshman because the most valuable player on the roster is still recovering. Despite not having the recruiting advantages of Power 5 schools. And despite losing Scott Frost to his alma mater and replacing him with Mike Leach disciple, Josh Heupel.
While some metrics, like SP+, remained unimpressed, there is a statistical case for UCF being among the top 10. Before dropping 45 points on the nerds at Stanford, UCF ranked ninth in OFEI, which is a fancy way of saying their offensive unit, relative to an average defense on a neutral field, is the ninth most efficient. Their DFEI, the defensive equivalent, was worse (39th) but likely to rise slightly, having held Stanford to 10 points in meaningful game time. The UCF offense is very good. The defense is so-so. That can be enough, just ask Oklahoma.
So again. What has to happen for these guys to get some love?
Just win baby!
Okay, that is clearly never going to be enough. But that is where they have to start. The Knights need to beat the Panthers handily this weekend and then run their conference with the same degree of authority. It doesn’t matter that the AAC is (avert your gaze Clemson fans!) almost as good as the ACC. The conference, since it is a lowly Group of 5, will be labeled as weak.
Stanford needs to get its act together. Pittsburgh needs to be more like the team that hung around with Penn State and not the team owned by UVA. Finally, Memphis, SMU (coached by another Leach guy, Sonny Dykes) or Temple, or some combination thereof, need to keep rolling.
To make this as succinct as possible, UCF is without comparison in college football. Their closest parallel is Gonzaga in a completely different sport. Your favorite team doesn’t want to play them because a loss to a Group of 5 team is uglier than a loss to, say, Auburn. If the Power 5 are afraid of you, voters ought to take heed.
If UCF runs the table again, it should be their time.
Does that mean that they can beat Alabama or Clemson nine times out of 10? Absolutely not. But who can?