Week 5 was a bit of a letdown, but FanSided college football experts Michael Collins and Patrick Schmidt still find the latest college football narratives to pick apart.
If you had to apply one word to Week 5 of the 2019 college football season, that word would probably be … meh. While there were a couple of decently competitive games (thank you, North Carolina, Clemson, Arkansas, and Texas A&M) the majority of the games were over before you could toss out the bare bone from your first hot wing.
However, despite the lack of overall drama, some interesting hot takes did come out of this week’s games, and certainly enough for another edition of, “Believe it or Not”, with FanSided college football experts Michael Collins, and Patrick Schmidt.
Jumping in with what could have been the biggest upset of the year.
5. Believe it or not, Clemson will lose an ACC game.
Schmidt Says – Not: Don’t believe it. Clemson had their scare at North Carolina where Mack Brown is going to have the Tar Heels back to winning eight games or more per year sooner than most of us thought. I think this scare will benefit Clemson and they’ll learn not to underestimate any opponent on their schedule.
The Tigers will be the most talented team by far the rest of the season and while Trevor Lawrence hasn’t played to his potential this year, it’s only a matter of time before he breaks out of his mini sophomore slump. Plus, there just isn’t a team in the ACC capable of testing Clemson the way UNC could do. It was the perfect environment for an upset and they survived. They’ll be fine.
Collins Says – Believe It: It was the same week last year that Clemson got their scare from Syracuse, then they went on to run the table and rout Alabama in the national title game. Same script? Not this year.
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The difference is, Clemson’s defense actually looks fallible this year. Mack Brown and the Tar Heels laid out a blueprint for how to beat Clemson. If there’s an ACC team out there with a big offensive line and a running back who knows how to plant his foot and then pound the ball north-to-south, they can control the ball and beat the Tigers.
Oh, and they need a decent defense too.
The possible contenders with that formula? Boston College, Louisville, and Florida State are all maybe but all have defensive liabilities. I’m putting my money on Wake Forest. They’ve been a huge surprise so far this season and could be the thorn in the side of Clemson’s undefeated season hopes.
4. Believe it or not, Baylor is the biggest test for Oklahoma in the Big 12.
Schmidt Says – Not: I really like what Matt Rhule is doing in Waco. I loved the hire from the jump and think he’s the right man to transform the program and get them out of the toxic waste dump they were in from the Art Briles era.
The Bears defense is legit, they’re undefeated, but I think they’re another year away from truly putting Oklahoma on upset watch. I think Texas remains the biggest test to Oklahoma. The Longhorns beat Kyler Murray and the Sooners in the regular season last year and Tom Herman can play chess with Lincoln Riley.
Does that mean I’m picking Texas to beat Oklahoma or win the Big 12? Not so fast. But I do think they pose the stiffest test for the Sooners.
Collins Says – Not: Baylor is a work in progress and has come a long way since Matt Rhule took over, but they’re still a long way from being an actual threat to Oklahoma.
The way Oklahoma is playing over this first stretch of the season I’m not sure anyone in the Big 12 is truly a threat. What the Sooners will need to guard against is letdown, trap games against teams like Kansas or West Virginia – teams with nothing to lose who will dig deep into the playbook to pull off an upset.
Honestly, the only Big 12 team who really has a chance of keeping up with the Sooners offensively is Oklahoma State. Bedlam may end up being the first of two Sooners play-in games for the College Football Playoff.
3. Believe it or not, Auburn-Florida won’t matter for the SEC Championship Game.
Schmidt Says – Believe It: I love Auburn freshman quarterback Bo Nix and think he’s going to be a superstar. I love the Auburn defensive line and think it’s the best in the nation. Florida has quietly put together a nine-game winning streak and Kyle Trask has kept the team afloat after the season-ending injury to Feleipe Franks.
That said, Auburn might be the third-best team in the SEC West and Florida still has a lot of ground to make up on Georgia before they are legit contenders. I think this game is going to be the game of the week, but it won’t have any bearing on the SEC Championship Game.
Collins Says – Not: How could Auburn-Florida not matter for the SEC Championship game? Two Top 10, undefeated teams meeting mid-season is a perfect preamble for setting up some serious SEC drama.
The Southeastern Conference is known for two things when it comes to football; overall dominance, and inter-conference cannibalism. If you don’t think a potentially undefeated Auburn couldn’t upset Alabama in the Iron Bowl, or that a much-maligned but undefeated Florida couldn’t spoil Georgia’s season in the Cocktail Party, you aren’t paying attention.
The loser of Auburn-Florida will be almost as dangerous as the winner, as there are few things sweeter in the SEC than playing spoiler if you can’t make it to the dance. One of those two teams will do just that.
2. Believe it or not, Rutgers is the worst Power-5 job in America.
Schmidt Says – Believe It: Rutgers is an absolute mess and if they’re on your schedule, you have an automatic win. They are everyone’s “get right” game as Michigan proved on Saturday in their 52-0 win. It’s not a glamorous program that will have recruits in the New York/New Jersey wanting to play for that program. They are going to Penn State, Virginia Tech or Michigan.
When they’re on TV, they’re on ESPN8 at noon. And the recruits that are standouts in the area aren’t going to Rutgers anyway. There’s a case for Oregon State, Kansas and Vanderbilt but none are as hopeless as being the head coach at Rutgers where they probably have to go back to Greg Schiano because no one else will be remotely interested.
Collins Says – Not: Rutgers isn’t the most attractive Power-5 job, to be sure. But the worst? I don’t think so. Having lived near New Brunswick before, I can tell you it’s a pretty cool place with some nice distractions. You aren’t terribly far from the Jersey Shore or New York City, and you’re playing in the Big Ten, so you get to at least visit some historic venues as a visiting coach.
If you go down the list, there are a few contenders for the worst.
Vanderbilt? Possibly. A perennial doormat in the SEC, but just being in that conference gets you a boatload of money every year, plus some decent TV exposure even if it is exposing how bad you are.
Kansas? Definitely a stinker but not bad enough for Les Miles to pass up. There must be something there.
No, the worst job in the Power-5 conferences is Oregon State. You end up with terrible Pac-12 TV times, the climate is awful and depressing, the program has been a shambles for years (and looks to continue being that way) and big brother Oregon will always get the good press. Yuck factor – 10.
1. Believe it or not, Ohio State, not Alabama, should be No. 1
Schmidt Says – Believe It: I am not surprised Alabama is the new No. 1 after Clemson’s close call vs. North Carolina. After all, they were the No. 2 team so it’s an easy move for AP voters. Alabama has a lethal offense but their defense hasn’t been the typical Crimson Tide defense we’ve grown accustomed to.
That’s why Ohio State received first-place votes. They have been the most complete team offensively, defensively and on special teams. Justin Fields and Chase Young are the best offensive-defensive duo in the nation and the team hasn’t missed a step with Ryan Day taking over for Urban Meyer.
Collins Says – Not: If you want to talk about who should be No. 1, it’s a long discussion. There are issues going on with all the top five teams and you could make a case for just about any of them being on top, but I’m not sure Ohio State has the strongest argument.
Yes, Justin Fields has looked like he’s been playing for the Buckeyes for five years rather than just five games and Ohio State has hung no less than 45 on any opponent they’ve faced this season. However, that list consists of FAU, Cincinnati, Indiana, Miami (Oh), and Nebraska – not exactly a murderer’s row to open the season.
Alabama’s schedule has been a little tougher (though not by much) and they’ve looked every bit as impressive as the Buckeyes. If Bama was number two, and Clemson stumbled, there’s no reason the Crimson Tide shouldn’t be number one.
Of course, Georgia and LSU are the only teams in the Top 5 who have played and beaten Top 10 teams so far this season, but that’s none of my business.