Revisiting preseason fantasy football predictions, the good…and the terrible

Reviewing Fantasy Football Predictions I made in the 2019 Preseason

This summer, before the start of the season, in the very first article I wrote, I made 32 fantasy football predictions, one for each team. Now that week 7 of the NFL season has concluded, we are at the halfway point for the majority of fantasy football leagues. Enough time has passed that we can start to draw some conclusions based on what we’ve seen so far.

Let’s take a look at five fantasy football predictions that make me look good, and five predictions that make me look bad.

Fantasy stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference

5 Fantasy Football Predictions I feel smart about

Patriots – WR Demaryius Thomas will disappoint

Thomas was such a disappointment that he never played a regular season snap with the Patriots, being traded to the Jets after the ill-fated Antonio Brown signing at the start of the season.

Thomas hasn’t been productive with the Jets, but outside of one game versus Dallas, no one on that offense has. He didn’t work out in New England, but could still have a productive second half with the Jets.

Steelers – Juju Smith-Schuster will have a better season than Antonio Brown

So this is probably cheating a bit. Smith-Schuster is wildly under-performing (having the 3rd string QB play significant time will do that to you). But at least Juju is on the field.

Brown has only played one game and can’t even blame injuries as the reason. Brown’s fate for the rest of the season has yet to be determined, but his antics make him hard to trust for the rest of 2019 and beyond.

Browns – QB Baker Mayfield will be over-drafted

Mayfield was, more often than not, among the the first 5 QB’s drafted. With the offensive talent of Beckham, Landry and Chubb you could understand the allure.

Through six games though, he only matched projection once, and the MNF game versus the 49ers alone is enough to prove he’s not ready to be an elite QB. The poor offensive line play has been a factor too.

Panthers – QB Cam Newton will no longer a dominant (top 5) fantasy QB.

It’s easy to say, “Oh it’s the foot injury, he’ll be fine.” But Newton has taken more hits than any QB in NFL history due to all of those extra rushes. He’s a QB in a RB’s body. His fantasy value is largely inflated by his running ability, especially near the goal line. His body is breaking down and his backup Kyle Allen is 4-0 as of this writing, so he might not get his job back.

Seahawks – WR Tyler Lockett will be a must start every week

With Doug Baldwin retired, Lockett is proving that last season was no fluke. He’s had two double digit catch games already, showing he’s more than just the deep threat. Lockett is projected to finish with over 90 catches and near 1200 yards. He’s become a top 15 fantasy WR and he’s helping QB Russell Wilson make a strong bid for league MVP.

5 Fantasy Football Predictions I feel silly about

Ravens – 4th Round Pick Justice Hill will be the teams RB1 by seasons end

The season is not over but the only way Hill becomes the teams #1 RB is due to injury. He’s 3rd on the depth chart and 4th on the team in rushing with only 78 yards. Mark Ingram is on pace for over 1,000 yards and he’s not even the teams leading rusher, QB Lamar Jackson is. Justice Hill might become a great fantasy option some day, but it won’t be this season.

Bengals – RB Joe Mixon will average at least 5 yards a carry

Of all the predictions I got wrong, this one hurts the most. I was convinced that not only would Mixon be an RB1, I thought he had the chance to be elite. Through seven games, he’s averaging only 3 yards a carry and has yet to score a rushing touchdown.

Mixon’s numbers are so bad, they almost have to improve at some point, right? The team, and the offensive line specifically, is a mess right now.

Jaguars – One of the Jaguars Tight Ends will be a popular waiver pick up by October

This prediction was predicated on the idea of QB Nick Foles starting more than one game. Gardner Minshew is currently earning the right to finish the season as the Jags starter.

Before a season ending injury, James O’Shaughnessy was starting to gain notice in a shallow TE pool. 3rd round rookie Josh Oliver is worth keeping an eye on as he finally made his regular season debut in week seven.

Redskins – WR Paul Richardson will lead the team in receiving

Richardson had a couple double-digit games early in the season and might be worth rostering in deep leagues but this is all about rookie WR Terry McLaurin bursting on to the scene and emphatically taking over as the #1 WR. McLaurin already has four games with 17 or more fantasy points. He is a slam dunk to be retained in keeper and dynasty leagues.

Bears – WR Anthony Miller is poised for a breakout year

Miller is second on the team in receptions among wide receivers. Unfortunately, 13 receptions through six games is pitiful. Everyone on the Bears offense aside from Allen Robinson has struggled to stay relevant in fantasy this season. If the light ever turns on for QB Mitchell Trubisky or they bench him, Miller’s outlook could change, but it’s not likely to at this point.