Nylon Calculus: Nickeil Alexander-Walker is going to create offense

If the Pelicans’ 130-122 overtime loss on opening night is any indication, rookie Nickeil Alexander-Walker is going to have plenty of opportunities to make things happen.

Zion Williamson‘s injury obviously has enormous ramifications for the Pelicans but the most visceral on opening night, along with the absence of thunderous dunks, was the way it moved everyone up a slot in the rotation. Coach Alvin Gentry hadn’t completely solidified his starting lineup but, with everyone healthy, either J.J. Redick or Lonzo Ball was likely to come off the bench.

Williamson’s injury meant both were in the starting backcourt on opening night, alongside Jrue Holiday, leaving rookie Nickeil Alexander-Walker as the first guard off the bench in the first half. It wasn’t necessarily a pretty offensive night for the rookie — he finished with 3 points and 2 assists on 1-of-10 from the field and 1-of-7 from the 3-point line. But the sheer volume of creation opportunities he had available to him as the fulcrum of that second unit was striking.

According to pbpstats.com, Alexander-Walker was on the court for 23 offensive possessions, during which he had those 10 shot attempts, as well as 6 potential assists. To put those numbers in context, through passing or shooting, he was directly involved in scoring opportunities on about 70 percent of the Pelican’s offensive possessions when he was on the floor. Russell Westbrook, the exemplar of monstrous offensive usage, was only directly involved in scoring opportunities on about 56 percent of the Thunder’s offensive possessions when he was on the floor last season.

Of course, we’re talking about just a tiny 12-minute sample and only four minutes in the second half, as Gentry gave extra minutes to E’Twaun Moore and Frank Jackson in a tight game. Still, this is representative of the kind of creation opportunities Alexander-Walker could have with this second unit until Zion returns and either Ball or Redick moves back to the bench.

Alexander-Walker will likely be a capable shooter — he hit 14-of-30 3-pointers in the preseason — and 6 of the 7 attempts he had in this game were classified as open or wide-open by the NBA’s player tracking stats. He is also the Pelicans’ only real threat to attack off the dribble when Ball, Ingram and Holiday are out of the game. He didn’t play a single offensive possession in this game with any of those three which meant his 12 minutes were an inherent license for him to attack. He drove the ball six times on those 23 offensive possessions, although he missed all three of his shots at the rim. While it was clear that he was willing to shoot, it didn’t necessarily feel like he was forcing the issue (other than one mind-numbing bounce-pass attempt) or wildly putting up shots.

Having a few of those shots go down — either the open 3s he missed or the four potential assists he had which teammates failed to convert — could have changed the outcome of this game. But Alexander-Walker has to be excited about the he will be asked to fill early in his rookie season and the Pelicans have to feel good about his ability to make things happen in that role.