Fansided

College Football Believe it or Not: Big Ten better than SEC, Utah next to be upset

By Michael Collins & Patrick Schmidt

facebooktwitterreddit

College football can be an unpredictable sport, with upsets forcing teams to hit the reset button and allowing us to decide whether to believe it or not when the hot takes start flying.

College football, huh? Kansas State over Oklahoma. Michigan over Notre Dame. TCU over Texas. If you saw these upsets coming, go out and get yourself some lottery tickets right now. Other than making money for some bettors, the other thing upsets do is cause hot takes and strange narratives to begin.

Whether it comes to playoff chances, coaching changes, or more upcoming upsets, FanSided college football experts Michael Collins, and Patrick Schmidt will sort things out and tell you if they believe it or not.

Believe it or not, the SEC is getting 2 playoff teams

Schmidt Says – Believe it.

It’s set up that way with LSU and Alabama being No. 1 and No. 2 in the AP Poll heading into their Nov. 9 showdown in Tuscaloosa. The loser, provided it’s not a one-sided runaway, shouldn’t drop below Ohio State and Clemson and the victor.

But what about Penn State? I think Ohio State will beat Penn State later in November allowing LSU/Alabama loser to slide back into the top four without fear of dropping out due to a potential conference championship game. I don’t think a one-loss Big 12 or Pac-12 champion has the ammunition to pass up a one-loss non-SEC champion.

Collins Says – Not.

I don’t think the table is set the way it was in 2017 when Georgia and Alabama met for the championship. The way things are shaping up this year, things will likely sort themselves out, just as they did in 2007 (The Year of the Upset).

Not only do Alabama and LSU still have to face each other, but Alabama has a date with Auburn in the Iron Bowl, while LSU still has three conference games remaining after that, any of which could be a letdown game after the hype of Alabama. The winner of LSU-Bama will also still have to face a pretty tough opponent in the SEC Championship game.

Most importantly, let’s not forget that the CFB Playoff committee has yet to even release their first rankings yet. There’s no certainty that things will look the same as they have in the AP polls.

When all is said and done, you’ll likely see the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 represented in the playoff (sorry, Oregon).

Believe it or not, the Big Ten has passed the SEC as the best conference

Schmidt Says – Believe it.

There have been many who tried to knock the crown off the SEC as the top conference in college football. But if you come for the king, you best not miss, and the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12 have all missed their shot.

More from College Football

But this year is different, which is weird in a way when you consider LSU and Alabama are the top two teams in the nation and Georgia and Florida are both in the top eight. Auburn is a quality team too. What made the SEC the best conference wasn’t just the heavyweights at the top though, but the middle class of the conference that gave it unprecedented depth.

When Mississippi State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Tennessee, and even Vanderbilt were all winning eight-plus games each year while Alabama, Florida, LSU and Auburn each won national titles, it propped up the conference and was unrivaled for the better part of a decade.

However, the middle class has eroded in the SEC while the Big Ten has top-five teams Ohio State and Penn State and bolstered by an undefeated Minnesota who is up to No. 13 in the AP Top 25. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa are all ranked in the top 20, giving the conference six ranked teams, the most in the nation, and one more than the SEC.

Collins Says – Not.

There has definitely been a closing of the gap between the Big Ten and SEC, but right now I think it’s safe to say the SEC still has the upper hand. In 2018, the SEC went 4-1 head-to-head against teams in the Big Ten, up from the 1-3 record in 2017, which is the only losing record the SEC has had against the B1G since 2010.

The strength of the middle class of either conference is highly cyclical, as they don’t have the steady flow of top recruits that programs like Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan, and Georgia are getting. Usually, it takes a season of work for those middle-tier programs to be competitive again once they lose some upperclassmen.

By the end of the season, the small disparity in rankings will even out and probably even swing in the direction of the SEC, and the Big Ten will likely fall to some SEC opponents in bowl games. It’s closer than it once was, but the SEC is still king of the gridiron.

Believe it or not, USC should keep Clay Helton

Schmidt Says – Believe it.

Clay Helton might be on the hottest seat in the country with seemingly everyone already waiting for Urban Meyer to redecorate Helton’s office. Helton is what he is. He’s not going to win national championships but he’s not going to drive the program off the road either.

USC should absolutely entertain Meyer’s interest in coming out of retirement and taking on this rebuilding job. But if he rebuffs their interest, USC should keep Helton for one more year and reassess the coaching market next November.

It’s not an ideal situation but Helton has won a Rose Bowl and a Pac-12 championship. He’s recruited well and he has a potential star to mold in redshirt freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis. I think he and Graham Harrell need a little more time together.

Heck, USC already has a win against Utah this year and could be sniffing an upset vs. Oregon on Saturday. Those are the two best teams in the Pac-12, so if Helton can find a way to get wins in both those games, I think he’ll inspire a tad more confidence in him being capable of competing for a conference title next year. And if he doesn’t, at least you have Meyer’s number on speed dial already.

Collins Says – Not.

You have to tip your hat to Clay Helton for doing a remarkable job of keeping the Trojans winning with all the injuries they’ve been dealt, particularly at quarterback. Aside from that, Helton is just a good coach, and USC expects more than that.

USC is a top-tier program who should be contending for national titles every season, and it doesn’t seem Helton is the guy to bring the program back to that level. Oh, he’ll keep them winning and have them in some decent postseason bowl games, but you just don’t sense that swagger and power the program once had.

Truthfully, not keeping Ed Orgeron as head coach may have been the biggest mistake the USC brass has made (other than hiring Lane Kiffin).

Helton may buy himself another year, depending on how things shape up at the end of this season, but he won’t be the long-term solution for returning the Trojans to greatness.

Believe it or not, Kirby Smart should regret picking Jake Fromm over Justin Fields

Schmit Says – Not.

Whether Justin Fields wanted to leave his home state on his own or if he left Georgia because he knew he’d be backing up Jake Fromm, Kirby Smart definitely wishes he had both of them in Athens.

Georgia Bulldogs Football
Georgia Bulldogs Football /

Georgia Bulldogs Football

I understand why Georgia committed to Fromm but I also understand Fields wanting to leave for his chance to be the guy without having to wait his turn. He’s showed he’s a dynamic dual-threat quarterback at Ohio State and played his way into the Heisman conversation while the Buckeyes are in a position to make the College Football Playoff.

Fromm, however, has looked a little limited as a junior. Is it a case of Smart just being a defensive-minded head coach who is way too conservative and afraid of unleashing his three-year starter? I think it’s a little bit of both. But it doesn’t do any of the parties any good to look back and wonder what could have been. Fields is happy and Fromm has Georgia in a spot to win the East again.

Collins Says – Believe it. 

I love Jake Fromm. He’s absolutely one of the smartest quarterbacks in the nation and is unquestionably a great team leader. Georgia is lucky to have him.

But…

That doesn’t mean Kirby Smart made the right choice. He’ll never come out and publicly say he regrets letting Justin Fields get away, but I’m willing to bet he does, and the regret for Smart is actually two-fold.

He should regret not hiring an offensive coordinator who would run a more modern, spread offense that could utilize Fields’ unbelievable talent. Sticking with the same, tired offense run by an offensive coordinator who should be learning on the job in a school not fighting for a national championship may not only have cost Kirby Smart the chance to see just how good Fields could be in a Georgia uniform, but it may have cost him a real shot at the title this year.

They are two completely different quarterbacks, and Kirby Smart was short-sighted in not making sure Fields was set up for success at Georgia.

Believe it or not, Utah is the next top-10 team to get upset

Schmidt Says – Believe it.

Three weeks ago it was Georgia losing to South Carolina, two weeks ago it was Wisconsin losing to Illinois and this week it was Oklahoma losing to Kansas State as top-10 teams fell to unranked opponents. Could we make that four weeks in a row?

If it happens, I think Utah is the team with the upset alert bells ringing loudest.

The Utes have been crushing everyone this year outside of USC, which remains one of the most surprising losses of the year. But the Utes will head north to Seattle to take on Washington who hasn’t lived up to their preseason billing. Husky Stadium is a tough place to play, however, and Jacob Eason has the potential to beat the Utah defense. Whether he has the support of the rest of his teammates and a defense that can slow down a really good Utes offense will be the bigger question.

Collins Says – Not.

Earlier, I eluded to 2007 being the year of the upset, with the No. 2 ranking being the biggest curse of all. Seven different teams who were ranked second went down for the count that season, and the No. 1 team went down three different times.

As I said, things have a way of sorting themselves out.

We’ve already seen a few big upsets this year, and the fun is just beginning. But the next big upset won’t happen to Utah, especially not against a very inconsistent Washington. The next big upset will be the one that really shakes up the College Football Playoff rankings.

There will be a few minor upsets over the next couple of weeks, but the next big shocker will happen in Week 12. Mark it down, because I’ve had this one circled for quite a while.

Wake Forest will upset Clemson and really set the debate about the playoff on fire. Clemson will be on cruise control and Wake will be fighting like crazy to do something no one expected this season. If the Demon Deacons pull off that upset (and it’s not that far-fetched) they could wind up as Atlantic Division champions by virtue of their head-to-head win over Clemson.

Crazier things have happened, just look back again at 2007.

Next. 50 greatest college football teams of all time. dark

For more NCAA football news, analysis, opinion and unique coverage by FanSided, including Heisman Trophy and College Football Playoff rankings, be sure to bookmark these pages.

Home/College Football