Ohio State will leap LSU as new No. 1 in playoff rankings with Penn State win

Will Ohio State pass LSU to be the new No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings with a win over Penn State?

Although Ohio State football has dominated every opponent they’ve played this year, many say that their resume is not as strong as LSU’s. But with a win against No. 8 Penn State, especially a comfortable win, the Buckeyes will jump LSU.

Of course the very thought of anyone, and I mean (*slaps table*), anyone, jumping the Tigers in the rankings just might be enough to make your LSU fanatic uncle flip the Thanksgiving table.

LSU indeed has a case for No. 1. Their strength-of-schedule boosts their credibility. They beat Florida and Auburn, two ranked opponents. They also beat Texas and Alabama on the road. At the time, Texas was ranked No. 9.

Ohio State’s strength-of-schedule is nothing to shrug at though. When the committee looks at Ohio State and LSU on paper they would see that believe it or not, there really isn’t a huge gap in the strength of their schedules. LSU’s is No. 2 while Ohio State’s is No. 6. But the Buckeyes have breezed through their schedule, winning their closest game by 24 points.

Last week, LSU beat Ole Miss convincingly but still gave up 37 points to the Rebels. With the No. 44 scoring defense in the country, LSU‘s defensive struggles are well-documented. Ohio State, on the other hand, has the No. 1 scoring defense.

At this point, your LSU fanatic uncle would stand up and say something like “defense? Defense?! To heck with defense! Just score more points! Offense wins championships now!”

So what about the offense? Well, Ohio State has an advantage over the Tigers there as well, though barely. The Buckeyes have the No. 1 scoring offense in the country to LSU’s No. 2.

LSU and Ohio State would each have three wins over ranked opponents. Based on current CFP rankings, and if the Buckeyes beat Penn State, the average rank of Ohio State’s past opponents would be No. 13. LSU’s would be No. 10.

Again, while LSU has an advantage there, the gap isn’t all that large between the Tigers and Buckeyes. But the committee will also see that the Buckeyes have the nation’s best scoring offense and defense, and they have a huge advantage over LSU when it comes to scoring defense.

Don’t forget the “eye-test” that the committee uses to judge teams. Basically, after watching both teams play, which team do they think looks better? Before LSU beat Alabama, Ohio State was ranked No. 1.

At that point, LSU had put together some quality wins, but the committee believed that the Buckeyes passed the eye-test better than LSU. They have good reason to still believe that too. Their strengths-of-schedule are similar but Ohio State’s average margin of victory at this point is a whopping 41.7 points while LSU’s is 21.0.

LSU ended up jumping to No. 1 only after their win against Alabama since they had an impressive win. If Ohio State can get an impressive win this weekend over Penn State, the committee will have the reason they’ve been waiting for to put the Buckeyes ahead of LSU in the CFP rankings again.

In essence, LSU and Ohio State are comparable suitors for the CFP’s No. 1 ranking. They are neck-and-neck against each other in several important categories. But when it comes to scoring defense and the “eye-test,” the Buckeyes will have the advantage that puts them in the top spot.

But only if the Buckeyes beat Penn State this weekend.

There’s a reason a win against Penn State would be so impressive. Should the Buckeyes lose, the Tigers would remain No. 1, your LSU fanatic uncle will be in a fine mood and Thanksgiving tables in Baton Rouge will be safe and upright.

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