Nylon Calculus: Who is winning the head-to-head battle for NBA MVP?

Who is winning the head-to-head battle between NBA MVP candidates and how could these high-stakes games help decide who wins?

As the NBA season heads towards its final month, the MVP race appears to have winnowed down to a three-man race between Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and James Harden. Each player is producing remarkable statistics on one of the league’s best teams and a reasonable argument could be made on the merits of any of them.

However, research has shown that only about 50 percent of the variation in MVP votes can be explained by variations in their team’s records or their own individual stats. However you define “most valuable”, the Most Valuable Player Award is ultimately meted out to the player with the production to merit consideration and the most compelling story.

For that reason, the internal rivalries and head-to-head matchups can have an outside impact. Harden’s critique of Antetokounmpo’s skill level a few weeks ago brought new heat to the comparison between the two of them. And, as Micah Adams pointed out, James had an opportunity to make up ground in the narrative department this weekend with back-to-back games against Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard.

LeBron took full advantage, leading the Lakers to wins in both games and totaling 65 points, 15 rebounds and 17 assists on just 38 shots. However, even in the head-to-head matchups this season, he still may find himself trailing Antetokounmpo. The table below shows the per-game statistics for each of the most likely MVP candidates this season, according to the Basketball-Reference MVP Tracker, in games against each other. (I’ve omitted Anthony Davis because of the unlikelihood of him surpassing LeBron and because of the murkiness of double-counting games with him and LeBron).

By virtue of playing in the Eastern Conference, Giannis has only played four games against other MVP candidates this season but he’s won three of them and with a stat line that stands head and shoulders above the field. Harden and Doncic have gotten the worst of these matchups from a win-loss perspective, but their individual lines are still impressive.

Of course, the idea of these games as actual head-to-head matchups between the candidates is more perception than reality. Leonard has been the primary defender on LeBron for just over 46 total possessions across three games (an average of about 15 possessions per game) and that’s the highest total of direct offensive-defensive cross-matching for any of the candidates. However, the impact of these games, as far as driving narrative, is about the stakes of playing each other as much as actually scoring on each other.

There are still several games on the schedule between these players that could make a difference. The Lakers play the Rockets this Thursday and get the Clippers again on Apr. 9. Harden and the Rockets will get two more chances to run up the score against Doncic and the Mavericks, on Mar. 23 and Apr. 7, and another game against Giannis and the Bucks on Mar. 25. The Bucks will also play the Mavericks on Mar. 29.