Nylon Calculus Rookie Review: What did we see from De’Andre Hunter?

Even if the NBA regular season is canceled, we’ve seen enough to start assessing the first seasons of notable rookies. What did the Hawks get from De’Andre Hunter?

No rookie played more minutes than De’Andre Hunter this season. The No. 4 pick in the draft was a regular fixture in the Hawks’ starting lineup right from opening night and was averaging 32.0 minutes, 12.3 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game when the season was suspended on March 11.

With such a large sample, it made sense to use Hunter to kick-off our rookie review series, looking at what notable rookies produced during the suspended regular season and how that compares to what was expected, given their pre-draft profiles.

What did we expect?

In a pre-draft scouting report from last January, Trevor Magnotti identified Hunter as a complementary role player, but one whose high floor and versatility could make him a worthwhile piece for a good team:

"Hunter isn’t a top-end versatile defender in the way that Zion Williamson and Jarrett Culver are, and while his offensive skill set is more complementary, it doesn’t have the potential for upside that similar compliment prospects like Keldon Johnson have. However, Hunter has the skill set to play a role that every team needs — a complimentary wing on offense that can set screens, shoot spot-ups, and attack the basket, and then shift up a position and defend playmaking fours and switch on-ball actions defensively."

While the Hawks may have reached for Hunter with the No. 4 pick, he made plenty of sense as a long-term piece around John Collins, Trae Young and Kevin Huerter as the kind of shooter and defender who could help unlock their collective talents.

Obviously, the fully realized version of Hunter as a glue guy on a good team is not the outcome we’d expect to see in a rookie season. Still, given his pre-draft profile, a good outcome for this season would have seen him delivering on the promise of defensive acumen and versatility, and knocking down open shots from the perimeter. If we were looking for a hint of something more to come, it would be flashes of expanding on a spot-up-heavy offensive role, attacking closeouts and mismatches and growing as a situational creator.

What did we get?

The defensive versatility hinted at in Hunter’s pre-draft profile certainly showed up in his rookie season, although not quite as expected. According to Krishna Narsu’s defensive versatility stats, Hunter defended both wing positions far more often than he defended 4s. His distribution of defensive assignments was much closer to players like Kevin Knox or Kelly Oubre Jr. than it was to offensive wings who often defend up a position, like Draymond Green or Robert Covington.

You can see that Hunter ranked fairly high compared to the rest of the league in defensive versatility, but it was mostly leveraged down the positional scale.

The reading in Magnotti’s scouting report was that Hunter’s primary defensive value would be as a player who could handle 4s and switch onto smaller players while offering a more perimeter-based offensive profile. However, the reason we didn’t see as much of him in that role this season may have been the construction of the roster. Hunter played nearly half of his minutes this season with John Collins and about a quarter with Jabari Parker, both bigs without the size or rim-protection instincts to defend 5s full time.

There simply aren’t going to be many defensive minutes available at the 4 for Hunter as long as Collins is in the roster. But the more concerning issue was how ineffective he was as a defender overall.

All-in-one defensive metrics have plenty of blindspots but they’re useful as an estimate. Most rookies are generally negative defenders as they pick up the speed and nuances of NBA systems but 538’s RAPTOR estimated Hunter’s defensive impact to be tied for 21st among the 33 rookies who played at least 500 minutes this season. Playing as part of a defense that was generally ineffective overall and featured several high-profile weak links (see: Young, Trae) is a factor but fellow Hawks’ rookie Cam Reddish ranked 11th on the same list with an estimated impact that was essentially league averaged for players of all experience levels.

Defense, which was supposed to be the most reliably translatable part of Hunter’s NBA-ready skill set, didn’t really show up as expected this season. That being said, nothing we saw this season should discourage an optimistic view of his defensive potential. Again, rookie defense is notoriously wonky and the base he showed in college is still meaningful. Experience and added strength could help him take a big leap at this end next season.

In terms of shooting, Hunter made 35.6 percent of his 3-point attempts, a number that would be much higher if he hadn’t racked up 43 pull-up attempts (making just eight). He made 38.8 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts, an indicator of the kinds of shots he should be taking and the gravitational effect he should have on defenses as a floor-spacer down the road. The other encouraging thing for the Hawks is that his catch-and-shoot accuracy wasn’t tethered to Young. Hunter made 38.1 percent of his 3-point attempts after passes from Young and 36.7 percent after passes from any other teammate.

As far as that potential upside ability, attacking closeouts and working as a complimentary creator? Let’s say there’s still work to be done. Hunter averaged about seven drives per 36 minutes, a number comparable to players like Harrison Barnes, T.J. Warren and Oubre. However, he finished at a much lower rate on those drives — shooting just 41.4 percent, about the same as Draymond Green. For comparison, Barnes, Warren and Oubre all shot better than 45 percent on drives this season, with Barnes and Oubre drawing fouls on a much higher percentage of their drives than Hunter.

The clip below has some positive examples of him attacking quickly off the dribble, recognizing openings from off-balance defenders or created by screens. He also shows a nice hesitation dribble in the middle of the floor, changing speeds to keep rim protectors off balance.

However, you can see in his true shooting percentage chart from Positive Residual that his overall finishing at the rim is still below average and he struggles, in particular, on shots in the paint but outside the restricted area. The fact that he’s been able to get into the paint with such frequency is a positive sign but continuing to refine his ability to finish through and around contact will really unlock this skill set.

The Hawks may not have gotten exactly what they were hoping for from Hunter’s rookie season but he showed plenty of positives and struggled in areas that are easily explainable and understandable. Although defense has become the biggest question mark, the idea of him as a solid role player on a good team seems just as plausible as it did a few months ago and he should have plenty of well-defined developmental goals heading into his second season.