Nylon Calculus Rookie Review: What did the Grizzlies see from Ja Morant?

Even if the NBA regular season is canceled, we’ve seen enough to start assessing the first seasons of notable rookies. What did the Memphis Grizzlies see from Ja Morant?

Ja Morant took the opportunity presented by Zion Williamson’s absence and ran out to an enormous lead in the Rookie of the Year race. The dynamic point guard stood out with big game heroics, averages of 17.9 points, 6.9 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game, and by keeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference playoff picture.

Morant put up huge numbers as a sophomore for tiny Murray State, clearly demonstrating his talent. But as with every productive prospect at a smaller school, the question was how much of that dominance would translate to the NBA and a steep climb in the level of competition. Morant was a pleasant surprise but exactly how surprising was his monster rookie season?

What did we expect?

Morant’s sophomore season was a thing of beauty — 24.5 points, 10.0 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game, shooting just under 50 percent from the field and 36.3 percent on 3-pointers and putting together an impressive highlight reel of thunderous dunks. That resume hinted at a dynamic scorer and playmaker who could impact the game in a number of ways. But in a mid-April scouting report, Trevor Magnotti pointed out some of the rough edges in Morant’s game that could be the difference between putting up big numbers in the NBA and putting big numbers with the actual impact to match:

"Morant’s talents set him up to be a college star and to get drafted high. But there are real concerns around the margins that will very likely be problems for him at the NBA level. He will likely figure out ways to score and gather assists consistently. But in terms of the things that vault point guards into elite company — decision-making, elite finishing, off-dribble shooting, and maintaining calm under pressure — Morant is going to have a steep learning curve to reach the level of the top-3 pick he’s probably going to earn."

For Morant, a positive outcome this season would be translating several definable skills that he showed in college and at least beginning to demonstrate the ability to leverage those skills for widespread team impact.

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What did we get?

It was hard to watch Morant this season and not be struck by his relentless energy. He played full-tilt all the time and ranked among the highest in the league in average speed on offense.

You could feel that bounce in the Grizzlies’ offense, who had some of the quickest average offensive possession times in the league and scored 15.9 percent of their points on the fastbreak, the third-highest mark in the league.

But Morant’s aggression could also be felt in the halfcourt where he used every opportunity to attack off the dribble and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates.

Here, Morant’s relentless approach really stands out. Only a handful of players drove to the basket on a higher percentage of their frontcourt touches and Morant ranked in the 62nd percentile in score percentage on those drives.

The concerns about feel and game management are things Morant will need to continue to address. His assist numbers look phenomenal, sliced several different ways, but there were also plenty of turnovers. In the past decade, 13 rookie guards have played at least 500 minutes with a usage rate over 25. Of that group, only Trae Young and Emmanuel Mudiay had a higher turnover rate. Morant’s turnover rate on drives, specifically, isn’t terrible which can be taken as a positive sign. But even with all those giveaways, he was still a net positive as a rookie and primary creator. Even small improvements in ball control and decision-making could make a huge difference.

Concern about Morant’s ability to finish at the basket may have been overblown. He shot 57.5 percent in the restricted area and 45.0 percent in the paint outside the restricted area, an efficiency level that gives him options and makes him much harder to defend. He’s definitely still relying mostly on craft and touch and scrolling through video of his paint finishes will give you plenty of examples of him being knocked off axis by the strength and bulk of opposing bigs. But there’s still plenty of time for him to add strength and what he’s doing is working.

Morant’s pull-up shooting from behind the arc still has a ways to go but he made better than 40 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts and his pull-up attempts inside the arc. There’s reason for optimism and with the rest of his skill package, being a reasonably efficient, high-volume, three-level scorer feels like a very plausible outcome. The defense is still a work in progress and there are more rough edges to be sanded down, but Morant should be an impact player for years to come. Given that he already helped carry this young team into playoff contention, the Grizzlies should feel very good about the future.