Nylon Calculus Rookie Review: What did the Timberwolves see from Jarrett Culver?

Even if the NBA regular season is canceled, we’ve seen enough to start assessing the first seasons of notable rookies. What did the Minnesota Timberwolves see from Jarrett Culver?

Jarrett Culver surged up draft boards with a breakout sophomore season at Texas Tech — averaging 18.5 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game while helping lead the Red Raiders to the National Championship game.

There’s a lengthy history of March Madness heroes inflating their draft stock with a few good games, only to disappoint in the NBA. However, Culver built his stock all season long and with playmaking and defense as his most notable skills, he was generally characterized as an NBA-ready and high-floor prospect. He eventually went No. 6 to the Minnesota Timberwolves and suffered through a tumultuous season for the franchise. With one season under his belt, does Culver still look like a future glue guy on a good team?

What did we expect?

Culver was, undoubtedly, a college star last season but most draft analyses acknowledged that his ceiling wouldn’t be quite that high in the NBA. In an April scouting report, Jackson Frank pointed out that Culver’s two-way versatility made him most appealing as a high-level role player who could play off a variety of different kind of stars, helping a good team reach its peak:

"Scoring isn’t even the preeminent charm of his offensive package. A 3.7:2.7 assist-to-turnover ratio this season belies his talent as a facilitator. Again, that mark largely emphasizes the need for Culver to be a secondary playmaker rather than the primary role he was miscast in (though he is a bit of a high-dribbler whose dribble moves aren’t always fluid or clean)."

Shooting was a fairly big question mark — Culver made 38.4 percent of his 3-pointers as a freshman but just 30.4 percent as a sophomore. But the expectation was that this season would show Culver deliver on his solid defensive potential, play a meaningful offensive role as a complimentary creator and, if things went well, maybe knock down some 3s.

More from Nylon Calculus

• Nylon Calculus: Reviewing preseason predictions for the Western Conference
• Nylon Calculus: Reviewing preseason predictions for the Eastern Conference
• Nylon Calculus: LeBron James and the slam dunk aging curve
• The Whiteboard: Why has the NBA seen so many 50 point games this season?
• Nylon Calculus: 15 early season predictions for the NBA Western Conference

What did we get?

We can start with the area of biggest concern — Culver’s jumpshooting, which turned out to be really problematic. He shot under 30 percent on both pull-up and catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. He joins Andrew Harrison and Jordan Poole as the only rookies in the player-tracking era with at least 50 attempts in each category and percentages under 30 in both.

When looking for optimism about a prospect’s shooting potential, scouts and analysts often turn to free throw percentage as an indicator of a player’s touch and ability to reliably recreate a stable shooting form. The fact that Culver made under 70 percent of his free throws in two years at Texas Tech was concerning. That he made just 46.2 percent from the free-throw line as a rookie was downright discouraging.

Without a reliable jumper, an Evan Turner comparison feels a lot more realistic, which is almost certainly not the upside the Timberwolves were hoping for when they took him No. 6 overall.

Things might look a bit rosier if Culver had shown some of the other elements of his offensive profile but he never really built a positive rhythm as a primary or secondary creator. As Frank alluded to, Culver was successful as a primary creator in college and would probably benefit from the boost in efficiency that could come from playing a more limited role.

His role was certainly more limited with Minnesota but their glut of ball-handlers forced him into a role so ancillary he didn’t have many opportunities to create value as a playmaker. The four players Culver played the most minutes alongside were Robert Covington, Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns and Shabazz Napier. Covington was not a ball-handler but Wiggins, Towns and Napier all had the ball in their hands for significantly longer per game than Culver did, with much longer average touch times. Nearly a third of his minutes were played with both Napier and Wiggins, and about a fifth had Towns on the floor as well. That meant that instead of functioning as a second or third option, he was fourth or fifth. Because Culver wasn’t hitting jumpers, there were very few ways for him to make an impact in that kind of scenario.

When he did get the opportunity to create with the ball, the results were … not great. Culver shot just 38.8 percent on drives and had more turnovers (17) than assists (14). Generating that few assists on over 300 drives doesn’t bode well for Culver’s creation upside, regardless of the role he’s in. Even his relative success at drawing fouls was wiped away by his terrible free-throw shooting.

The defensive side of the coin was a bit more promising. Culver did deliver on the versatility, spending most of his possessions on opposing shooting guards but more than 20 percent on both point guards and small forwards. He’s probably not moving up to defend 4s anytime soon but he looks like a piece who could comfortably be moved to most backcourt or wing assignments.

Both ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus and Jacob Goldstein’s PIPM estimated Culver to be a negative on defense, although only slightly so. For a rookie that’s not a bad result, especially considering he played on one of the worst defenses in the league and the results were noticeably better when he was on the floor. In terms of individual box stats, he was solid on the defensive glass for a wing and he just missed having steal (1.8) and block (2.1) percentages that were both over 2.0.

Culver looks like he’ll develop into a good NBA defender, especially if the roster around him can improve on that end. But he doesn’t necessarily look like he’ll become elite at that end. But, again, none of that matters if he can’t find a way to contribute on offense and that looks like a huge if right now.