Nylon Calculus Spotlight: Duncan Robinson was a difference-maker for the Heat
With the 2019-20 NBA season suspended, we’re taking a look back on a few players who deserve more of the spotlight. Today, we examine Miami Heat sharpshooter Duncan Robinson.
As the days go by, it’s looking more and more likely that we have seen the last games of the 2019-20 NBA season. While hope still remains of a return to postseason basketball, we’re going back and focusing on a few players who enjoyed really impressive regular seasons but, for whatever reason, didn’t seem to receive the praise or credit they deserved.
Every year, there are a few players who slip through the mainstream media cracks, i.e. the Khris Middletons of the world, and the objective in this mini-series was to shine a light on a couple of those guys who justify some of the spotlight.
Today, we start with Duncan Robinson.
Duncan Robinson
Duncan Robinson is the latest in a long line of success stories from the Miami Heat’s vaunted player development staff. Robinson went undrafted in 2018 and chose to join the Heat that summer as a free agent on a two-way deal. After spending a year predominantly in the G League with the Heat’s affiliate in Sioux Falls, Robinson made the step up to Miami at the end of last season and has emerged as a valuable contributor in the Heat’s impressive 41-24 regular season.
Miami’s two All-Stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have (justifiably) received much of the praise for the team’s perceived overachievement, while outspoken rookies Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro have gained some of the spotlight as well, but Robinson has quietly put together one of the best shooting seasons in NBA history (yes, history) and deserves as much praise as anyone for the Heat’s ascension into Eastern Conference contenders.
Assuming the regular season is over, Robinson finished the year averaging a solid 13.3 points and 3.3 rebounds a night, including shooting 44.8 percent from deep on 8.4 attempts a night. The only time anyone has bettered his efficiency on eight or more attempts per game? Some guy named Stephen Curry in his unanimous MVP-winning season in 2015-16.
While he does not have the same range or shot-creation capabilities as Curry, Robinson is one of the few players in the league capable of shooting while on the move, facing any direction. Like the Currys, Klay Thompsons, and J.J. Redicks of the world, Robinson is more than comfortable sprinting full speed and then stopping on a dime to pull up and fire off a shot. With over 95 percent of his made 3s coming off assists, Robinson’s shot diet is more like that of Klay Thompson than of his fellow Splash Brother.
Like Thompson, Robinson is just about as pure a shooter as it gets. He only takes 9.4 field goals a night, with 8.4 of them coming from deep, meaning an incredible 88.5 percent of his shot attempts come from behind the arc — a higher mark than anyone in NBA history who has played at least 1,000 minutes in a season, just ahead of Heat VP Shane Battier. But despite being almost exclusively a threat from downtown, Robinson has managed to keep defenses on their toes by showing great variety in the way he gets his shots off — he’s proven to be more than just a spot-up shooter.
For one, the Heat run far more hand-offs than anyone in the league, and Robinson has formed a nice connection with Bam Adebayo to help spring himself free. Much like Joel Embiid and J.J. Redick in Philadelphia back in 2018 and 2019, the two have a sort of innate understanding and have often caught defenders off guard. With Adebayo’s emergence as an offensive playmaker, head coach Erik Spoelstra has given him license to bring the ball up the court following a defensive rebound, and that often results in plays like the one below. Adebayo pushes the ball off the rebound, following Duncan towards the corner before Robinson runs his man, Kevin Huerter, right into Adebayo and frees himself for the open triple.
It’s become one of the deadlier plays in the Heat’s playbook, with Robinson logging a league-high (for players with at least one handoff possessions a game) 1.35 points per possession on 2.4 handoffs a night.
Robinson has managed to make himself a weapon not just in the half-court but in transition as well. Much like Klay Thompson, Robinson has a knack for running straight to the 3-point line on fast breaks, and his Heat teammates now trust him enough to know that a transition 3 is a good shot for him. Miami scored 1.45 PPP on transition possessions “used” by Robinson, good for the 96th percentile.
In the clip here, the Orlando Magic converge on Goran Dragic after the Heat guard’s steal in the fourth quarter of this close game. But from the second Dragic has picked up the ball in the Miami backcourt, Robinson is off on a mission to get to the 3-point line, and when the Magic defense collapses, Dragic hits Robinson for a huge shot in transition.
It’s these catch-and-shoot situations where Robinson really thrives. His 7.0 catch-and-shoot attempts a night were the third-most in the league, and Robinson managed to convert them with incredible efficiency. He finished the year with a 68.3 effective field goal percentage on such attempts, behind only J.J. Redick and CJ McCollum. As teams have learned more about the danger he poses, coverage on Robinson has tightened significantly over the course of the year. But, even with a defender in his face, Robinson is still incredible — he managed to shoot over 40 percent from deep this season when the nearest defender was closer than four feet.
His catch and-shoot-prowess is a big part of what has made Robinson such an ideal running mate for the Heat’s two All-Stars, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Both are willing playmakers and below-average long-range shooters — especially with Butler’s jump shot seemingly abandoning him this season — and so Robinson has proven to be the perfect complement. Butler took on more of a playmaker role this year in Miami, averaging a career-high in assists, and Robinson was one of the biggest benefactors, capitalizing on open looks after the defense collapses on Butler or Bam. In fact, when the triumvirate played together, the Heat posted a +11.6 net rating, the seventh-highest out of 89 three-man combinations who have played over 750 minutes this season (behind four different Milwaukee Bucks trios and two from the Utah Jazz).
Defensively, Robinson may never be much of a positive, but he makes an effort and has pretty decent size. At 6-foot-7, he already has a leg up on a lot of other smaller shooters, and if there were ever a roster where Robinson could get away with some below-average defense, it’s this one. Surrounded by more than capable defenders in Butler, Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder and Adebayo, Robinson often matches up against the opposition’s fourth or fifth option and can usually hold his own in those situations. Per Krishna Narsu’s Versatility data, Robinson spends most of him time matched up against low-usage role players, with under 17 percent of his possessions devoted to guarding primary or secondary options.
Duncan Robinson has quietly emerged as the sort of valuable role player that all contenders are looking for, an ideal complement for modern NBA stars. Robinson was a late bloomer in both high school and college, and if he can continue to improve as he gets more experience, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the former Division III Williams College product earn a hefty payday when he enters the free agency market in 2021.