Russell Wilson beats out Patrick Mahomes in key PFF passing stat
By Sam Dunn
Russell Wilson has a claim for being the top QB that makes the biggest throws when it counts.
Patrick Mahomes is a reigning Super Bowl champ who took home game MVP honors, but when it comes to squeezing maximum efficiency out of every high-leverage throw, he might not quite be the NFL‘s best. Just ask Pro Football Focus, who track a special subset of passes they call “big time throws,” referring to attempts “with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window,” per Steve Palazzolo and Sam Monson.
So, if the Chiefs superstar isn’t No. 1 in highest percentage of big time throws over the last two seasons, it’s Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, right? Well, no. Wrong. It’s Russell Wilson.
Pro Football Focus’ “big time throws” stat shines an impressive light on Russell Wilson’s playmaking efficiency over the last two seasons
Top 5 Big Time Throw Rate (highest-graded PFF throws) over the past 2 seasons:
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) June 8, 2020
Russell Wilson, 943 Att, 78 BTTs, 8.3%
Patrick Mahomes, 1064 Att, 73 BTTs, 6.9%
Baker Mayfield, 1020 Att, 65 BTTs, 6.4%
Aaron Rodgers, 1167 Att, 70 BTTs, 6.0%
Matthew Stafford, 846 Att, 48 BTTs, 5.8%
Sure, this is just one specific stat amid an ever-expanding sea of them, but consider this just one more factor that makes the Seahawks signal caller quite possibly the best pound-for-pound quarterback in football. He doesn’t have nearly the same size or cannon arm that Mahomes has — nor the 2018 league MVP trophy — but don’t let anyone forget his name when naming the elite tier of NFL gunslingers.
As a point of reference, PFF notes that the league average for BTTs between 2014 and 2017 was 4.4% of all throws — which makes them almost exactly as rare as a passing touchdown during that span. For Wilson to sport an 8.3% clip is truly dazzling.
Most valuable players through the first three years of their careers since 2006 per PFF WAR
— PFF (@PFF) June 5, 2020
1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Matt Ryan
3. Russell Wilson
4. Andrew Luck pic.twitter.com/aeqDXUmThC
Of course, not every PFF metric places Russ above Pat. You may now exhale, Chiefs fans!
The KC faithful may be content to insist that since the Chiefs are on top of the football world, Mahomes is the king of big time throws by default. They’re not crazy to think so. But Russell Wilson is a Super Bowl champ himself, and has proven that he’s a one-man show no matter who’s lining up around him.
Perhaps the only way to settle this is a Chiefs-Hawks Super Bowl showdown, something we absolutely cannot rule out.
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