Nylon Calculus: Playoff seeding battles to watch in the NBA’s return

Here is a preview of the key NBA seeding battles, a breakdown of remaining strength of schedules, and the chances of a play-in series in each conference.

The NBA returns to action on July 30 after a four and a half month layoff, so it is easy to forget where we left off in terms of the standings and potential playoff match-ups. We have a new format to contend with too.

Each team will play an abbreviated schedule of eight regular-season seeding games before the playoffs begin in earnest. Additionally, the NBA introduced a potential play-in series for the eighth-seed in each conference. If the ninth-seed is within four games of the eighth-seed in the standings at the end of the seeding games, these two squads will play a mini-series for the final playoff spot. The ninth-placed team would need to win two games in a row while the eighth-placed team would only need to win once.

Which NBA teams have the best chance to impact their playoff seeding?

Eastern Conference

A quick glance at the Eastern Conference standings reminds us that the Bucks have essentially locked up the top spot; they are 6.5 games ahead of the second-seeded Raptors. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, the homecourt advantage conferred to the top seed is not a factor this season. I wrote previously about the effects of playing at a neutral site in terms of upset potential.

The second seed is still up for grabs, however, as Boston is just three games back of Toronto. A three-game deficit is a lot of ground to make up in just eight games, but the Celtics do have a few advantages over Toronto. They play the Raptors once in the seeding games, and should they win that matchup, they will not only make up a game in the standings but also clinch the tiebreaker by virtue of having a 3-1 head-to-head record over Toronto.

Another advantage that Boston has over Toronto is a slightly easier remaining schedule. To measure strength of schedule, I like to compute the record that an average NBA team (one with a +0.0 point differential) would be expected to post against a given schedule. For those curious, I use a very simple model that takes each team’s point differential and who is at home (which is not relevant in the bubble) to make this calculation.

Here is that calculation of strength of remaining schedule for all 22 teams:

We can see that the Celtics’ schedule is roughly 0.6 games easier than the Raptors’. That is, an average strength team would be expected to win 3.7 games against the Celtics’ schedule vs. 3.1 games against the Raptors’.

With that being said, I ran 50,000 simulations of the remaining schedule and Boston made up their three-game deficit only 16 percent of the time. So Toronto will most likely remain in second place. This is important because the second seed will face Brooklyn, Orlando, or Washington in the first round, a much less worrisome opponent than Indiana or Philadelphia, the teams which currently sit in fifth and sixth in the East. Winning the second seed matters.

Speaking of Indiana and Philadelphia, these two squads’ battle for the fifth seed is also not without consequence. The fifth seed (or fourth seed) will likely play the Miami Heat, while the sixth seed will be in all likelihood staring down a first-round match-up with Toronto or Boston, two teams with more formidable regular season performances than Miami.

The Pacers and Sixers go into the seeding games with identical 39-26 records, though the Pacers currently hold the tiebreaker by virtue of a 2-1 regular-season series lead. The teams actually meet in their first game in the restart, on Aug. 1, and this result will likely determine who will win the tiebreaker. If Indiana wins, they would clinch the tiebreaker outright by virtue of the head-to-head criterion. A Sixers’ victory would mean the head-to-head would be tied but Philadelphia would have a three-game advantage in record vs. Eastern conference teams, the next criterion.

Glancing back at the strength of schedule table, we see that the Sixers have a schedule that’s 0.5 games easier than the Pacers. Health may also be a factor in this race. It was reported that the Pacers would be without star shooting guard Victor Oladipo, though the latest indication is that he may try to play. Meanwhile, for Philadelphia, Ben Simmons will be back after missing the last eight regular-season games of the season with a nerve impingement in his lower back.

Jacob Goldstein has the Sixers with about a 48 percent chance to win the fifth seed and the Pacers with about a 32 percent chance, according to his projections.

Finally, there is the battle for the final playoff seed in the East. The Wizards currently sit 5.5 games behind the Magic and six games behind the Nets for the eighth seed. They will in all likelihood not pass one of those teams for eighth, but they could get to within four games of one of their rivals and force a play-in. The Wizards have a slightly harder remaining schedule than their two competitors, although they do at least play Brooklyn once.

In my simulations, Washington came within four games of one the two teams ahead of them just 16 percent of the time, so we will probably not have an Eastern conference play-in round. Much of the excitement (such as it existed) in the race for the last Eastern Conference playoff spot was lost when it was announced that the Wizards would be without both Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans, their two best players this season. The Nets will also be missing a slew of their own players, including Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie, DeAndre Jordan, and Wilson Chandler.

Western Conference

Like the Bucks in the East, the Lakers enjoy a comfortable lead of 5.5 games over the second-seeded Clippers and will thus almost certainly retain the NO. 1 seed. While it would have been interesting to witness a potential all-Staples Center playoff matchup between the Los Angeles based squads (what would home court advantage look like in that matchup?), that will have to wait for another season.

The Nuggets, the current third seed, are only 1.5 games back of the Clippers, but the more interesting seeding battles will be in the jumbled No. 3-7 seed range. Utah, Oklahoma City, and Houston, the current fourth through sixth seeds, are all within one game of each other in the standings and Dallas sits in seventh, just 1.5 games back of Oklahoma City and Houston.

While there is no longer homecourt advantage for the first round for the third and fourth seeds, the final order of the standings is important for match-ups. For example, the Jazz, now without important forward Bojan Bogdanovic, are probably loath to see Houston again in the playoffs; they were bounced by the Rockets in lopsided series in each of the past two playoffs and have lost two of the three regular-season meetings this year.

The Western Conference teams in this range may be content to face the Thunder in the first round. Oklahoma City has overachieved their preseason expectations; they posted a winning percentage equivalent to about a 47 win team over 82 games despite having a preseason win total over-under of only 32.5 wins. In terms of point differential for this season, the current third through sixth seeds are roughly evenly matched, but there is of course a lot of uncertainty as to how each team will perform coming off the hiatus.

A really intriguing team to watch in terms of seeding is the Dallas Mavericks, currently 1.5 games behind both the Rockets and Thunder for the sixth seed. Dallas sneakily posted a stellar +6.1 net rating this season, buoyed by the most efficient offense in the NBA by a wide margin. The Mavericks would be well served moving out the seventh seed and a first-round date with the Clippers. While their schedule is middle of the pack in terms of difficulty, Dallas actually finished sixth or better in the West in 54 percent of the simulations I ran, which was somewhat surprising to me. This does make sense though if you consider the fact that they could benefit from even just one of the three teams ahead of them playing poorly in the seeding games.

Finally, the race for eighth and ninth in the West features six teams. Memphis currently sits in eighth place, 3.5 games ahead of Portland, New Orleans, and Sacramento, with San Antonio four games back. While the Grizzlies could, with a strong run of play, finish more than four games ahead of the ninth seed and avoid a play-in, this is unlikely. In 91 percent of my simulations, we were treated to a play-in series for the eighth seed out West.

The Pelicans are the team to watch among those chasing the ninth seed and the right to play the Grizzlies for the final playoff spot; they have one of the easiest remaining schedules, a full game easier than Memphis. They also play the Grizzlies once in the seeding games on Aug. 3, giving themselves a chance to directly make up ground. Fans will be eager to see how Zion Williamson looks in the return to play.  The highly touted rookie was masterful scoring at the rim in his roughly 600 minutes of regular-season action and the Pelicans posted a stellar +4.4 point differential in the 20 games played since his debut in January, per NBA.com.

According to Jacob Goldstein’s projections, the Pelicans and the Trail Blazers each participate in the play-in series about 28 percent of the time. The Kings and Spurs make the play-in 19 percent and 10 percent of time, respectively. The Suns have an uphill climb and only made the play-in in one percent of his simulations.