Fantasy Football: QB rankings with projections

Ah, the quarterback position. It seems like a cruel joke that the most important position in football is so devalued on fantasy football rosters.

It’s always fun to laugh at someone picking a QB too early, but paradoxically, I find myself not just wanting that to happen, but also rooting for the opposite in drafts. I want a good QB to fall later than he should, so I can draft him at an actual value. As smart as you might feel doing the late round QB strategy, isn’t the lure of a star QB enticing? I want Russell Wilson scrambling out of the pocket and throwing a 40 yard bomb. I want Lamar Jackson juking two defenders at the same time for a touchdown. It’s so tempting.

I wrote about when you should draft a quarterback based on recent trends in this article, so know that I’m fully aware of the merits of waiting on a quarterback. I’ll probably end up doing that in most drafts, as QBs will again be drafted before their actual value. But man, I’m hoping they fall.

For RB rankings click here and here. For WR rankings click here and here. Now, let’s get into the QBs, starting it off strong with some generational talents.

Tier 1

At what point in the draft does it become a value to draft the first quarterback? Most years indicate that a pick on QB in the first three/four rounds will become a waste of a pick, and that draft capital is better spent on a running back or wide receiver. However, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes recently had the best two fantasy seasons ever at the quarterback position. If they repeat their historically great levels of peak production, they would be worth a first round pick. We know that probably won’t happen, but they remain enticing options. I can’t see myself taking them in the second round, but the third? I don’t think they’re bad picks.

Passing: 475 attempts, 3705 yards, 27 TDs, 8 Int

Rushing: 148 carries, 873 yards, 6 TDs

359.5 Fantasy Points

I owned Jackson last year and boy, was it exciting. While it was nice to know that my QB was going to outscore my opponent’s QB every week, the real benefit was that his price was so cheap. There will be no bargain again this year, with Jackson projected to go as a late second round pick. His success last year was due to his insane 9% TD rate, 1206 rushing yards, and the positive game scripts that allowed him to put up those numbers. If the Titans exposed the Ravens’ game plan in the playoffs last year for other teams to exploit, don’t count on as many nearly as many TDs or rushing yards for Lamar this year. However, his rushing floor combined with his massive upside makes him a near lock to finish as a top-5 QB and the most likely QB1 overall.

Passing: 575 attempts, 4830 yards, 33 TDs, 9 Int

Rushing: 55 carries, 247 yards, 3 TDs

343.9 Fantasy Points

If you want the best QB talent since Aaron Rodgers on your team, you’ll have to pay up, since his ADP is right alongside Lamar Jackson. While not many QBs can claim an MVP and a Super Bowl MVP in their first two seasons as a starter, Mahomes just isn’t quite as valuable as LJax. QB scoring in fantasy is pretty broken, as rushing QBs are the second biggest cheat code in the game behind receiving RBs in PPR leagues. Mahomes does provide rushing value, but he’s not actually a running back dressed up as a quarterback. He’s the clear-cut no.2 fantasy option, and with KC somehow improving their offense on paper, it’s hard to see Mahomes falling off this year.