Fantasy Football: Where projections go astray

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Rookie Madness

Rookies are the hardest type of player to predict, and I learned that emphatically this year. My biggest regret is getting caught up in the hype train that surrounded Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rookie season. I backed him up because I thought he would be a typical Andy Reid bellcow, who would rack up yards on the ground and through the air, while being able to score plenty of touchdowns in an extremely capable Chiefs offense.

While CEH did rack up yards until the surprise Le’Veon Bell signing, it seemed like he was allergic to the endzone. He didn’t look like a goal line back and Patrick Mahomes was so good at throwing touchdowns that Clyde wouldn’t even get many chances to run one in. CEH turned out to be a high-end RB2, then a low-end RB2 after the Bell signing, which is not what you want out of your first round pick.

This error was made due to a misevaluation of how he fit into the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs didn’t need a guy to catch a million dump offs like CMC or Alvin Kamara, nor did they need a guy to punch it into the endzone like Aaron Jones or Dalvin Cook. Patrick Mahomes and his elite receiving core nullify these needs, and I feel dumb for overlooking that.

Moving on to rookie receivers I would like to apologize to, that list includes Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool and Tee Higgins. I wrote an article in August about trying to find 2020’s top rookie WR, and I wrote about my top 6 choices, which were the following

Jalen Reagor
Michael Pittman Jr.
CeeDee Lamb
Henry Ruggs III
Jerry Jeudy
Justin Jefferson

The current top 5, by PPR points are

Justin Jefferson 209.1
Chase Claypool, 172.1
CeeDee Lamb, 157.1
Tee Higgins, 156.7
Brandon Aiyuk 136.2

While obviously not every sleeper hits, and Pittman and Reagor both got injured for chunks of time, I could have done better here. I said Justin Jefferson lacked Stefon Diggs’ talent at this stage in his career, which turned out to be a major oversight. Jefferson perfectly filled in for Diggs and took advantage of the Vikings’ affinity for shootouts and garbage time to put up WR1 numbers all season. I ignored the fact that he fit the system very well, and assumed he wouldn’t get reliable targets because Diggs was better than him (in my view).

Claypool and Aiyuk earned their jobs by proving his talent and carving out a role without necessarily taking much away from those higher on the depth chart, but that’s the type of breakout that you should pick up off the waiver wire, so I don’t regret ranking them so low. Tee Higgins similarly earned his role, but he shoved A.J. Green down the depth chart to do it, which could have been predicted given Green’s age and condition.

I mentioned in my evaluation of Ruggs that Derek Carr didn’t like to throw it deep, so it wasn’t an obvious match, but I ignored that in my conclusion, when I said his talent was good enough to earn him the WR1 role in Las Vegas. Similarly to Jalen Reagor, Ruggs is on a team that prefers to throw it to the tight ends rather than wideouts, which I should have considered more in my evaluation of their potential.

My biggest takeaway from reflecting on my rookie evaluations is that system fit is more important than talent or a spot on the depth chart. CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins or Justin Jefferson having the potential to be the second option among wideouts on their teams is more valuable than the potential of being the WR1 for Philly or Vegas, because of the system. CEH wasn’t an RB1 because of the system. The quality of the Chiefs offense could only carry him so far.

If you want to look back and laugh at more of my takes, all of my offseason and both regular season articles are listed below. If not, thanks for reading, and I hope you come back next year!