Is Sammy Watkins a fantasy sleeper in the Ravens’ offense?

Sammy Watkins has signed with the Baltimore Ravens, and he may have some sneaky fantasy upside in 2021.

The Baltimore Ravens have a clear need a wide receiver, and after missing some other opportunities in free agency they have signed former Chief Sammy Watkins to a one-year deal. So Lamar Jackson has a new target, with a high pick in April’s draft being used on a wide receiver feeling likely too.

In 10 games for the Chiefs last year, Watkins had 37 catches (second-lowest of his career) for a career-low 421 yards and two touchdowns. He has played all 16 games just once his career, as a rookie with the Buffalo Bills in 2014. But as cited by ESPN’s Jamison Hensley, Watkins’ career yardage total (4,665) is more than double the combined career total of the rest of the Ravens’ wide receivers (2,032).

Sammy Watkins has history with Greg Roman

The Ravens had the league’s worst passing offense last year (171.2 yards per game). Having the lowest number of pass attempts (406; 25.4 per game) is a factor, as the offense is centered on the ground game and the unique talents of quarterback Lamar Jackson. But based on offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s history, being run-heavy is not new.

Roman was the offensive coordinator in Buffalo in 2015 and for two games of 2016, Watkins’ second and third seasons in the league. In the one full season, Watkins had 60 catches for a career-best 1,047 yards and a career-high nine touchdowns over 13 games. In standard fantasy scoring, he finished as WR17.

Over 15 games when Roman was the Bills’ offensive coordinator, Watkins had 66 catches (on 107 targets) for 1,110 yards and nine touchdowns. In full-point PPR, that translates to 15.4 fantasy points per game. In 2020, that would’ve been tied for WR18 on a per-game basis.

Watkins, at 28 years old by the time the season starts, is not the same player he was at 22-23 years old in Roman’s Buffalo offense. But he may offset a lower yards per catch with more volume as an underneath target. Watkins’ ADP will be worth watching when draft time gets closer, and the upside isn’t great, but he’s likely to come at a steep discount for what could be WR3 production.