NBA season preview: One crucial stat for every NBA team

With the 2021-22 NBA season set to tip-off, we’re taking a look at a single metric that could define success for each of the thirty teams.

The 2021-22 NBA season begins on today with multiple teams vying atop the league for a possible championship. In hopes of better understanding the broader NBA landscape, these are the metrics that will define success for each team next season.

Atlanta Hawks: Opponent free-throw rate

The Hawks sped up their timeline, and the rest of the league’s expectations for them, after making a surprising run to the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

Atlanta improved from the league’s 16th-best differential before March to the ninth-best, which coincided with the promotion of Nate McMillan as head coach. With McMillan at the helm, the Hawks were both an above-average offense and defense through 38 games.

So what did McMillan do to optimize this young Hawks roster? The biggest improvement came defensively — Atlanta’s defensive efficiency improved from 22nd to 13th after the coaching change. Specifically, the Hawks transformed their defense by limiting opponent opportunities at the free-throw line.

Hawks opponents scored three fewer points per 100 possessions from the line after March 1, an improvement from the league’s 23rd-best rate to its fifth-best, per Cleaning the Glass. While Atlanta’s young explosive offensive core also improved its efficiency, if the Hawks would like to repeat their success from last season they’ll need to defend at an above-average level.

Of the infamous four factors comprising a team defense, limiting opponent points at the line is paramount for the Hawks.

Charlotte Hornets: Halfcourt efficiency

Every fan remembers turning on a Hornets game for the first time last season and being rendered incapable of taking their eyes off the screen. The tempo, flash, and rash of 3-pointers were staples that elevated the Hornets’ League Pass Rating into the upper quadrant of teams.

These principles aren’t necessarily characteristic of a James Borrego team, but as bread crumbs they indicate he is willing to play an unconventional style if it’s the Hornets’ best chance to win.

Borrego knew he found an advantage in the open court and emphasized transition as a bellwether for his team. Charlotte was the league’s most efficient transition outfit last season, and they had plenty of opportunities with the league’s fifth-best defensive turnover rate.

But, you can probably guess where this is going. Charlotte struggled as both a halfcourt offense and defensive with a minus-2.5 net rating in such situations. This dynamic, and the plethora of new players arriving in Charlotte this summer, should make Borrego’s upcoming season his most challenging yet.

Suffice to say if the Hornets are in the East’s play-in race at the All-Star break, it’s because they improved their halfcourt efficiency on either or both ends of the floor.

Miami Heat: Opponent 3-point attempts

The Heat, more than any other franchise in the NBA, have an identity. Some might consider them the San Antonio Spurs of new because they require commitment from every player, value team principles and physical fitness, and play the game of old; physical, dogged, and tough basketball.

Miami is consistently a top defensive team, unsurprising given their organizational focus on work ethic. It’s nearly a certainty, especially with the addition of Kyle Lowry, that the Heat will once again be one of the league’s best defensive outfits.

And yet, the Heat still could improve in their defensive playbook by limiting opponent 3-point attempts. Last season, Miami allowed the most opponent 3-pointers overall, and the second-most attempts from both the corner and above-the-break, per Cleaning the Glass.

While not all 3-point attempts are created equal, Heat opponents did shoot league average at roughly 37 percent. Translation: the Heat gave up a lot of points from outside last season, a difficult deficiency to overcome even when the rest of their defensive game plan was stellar.

They limited opponents to a below-average number of attempts at the rim, instead of coercing them into a plethora of long mid-range shots. If the Heat can continue to force opponents into difficult twos while still limiting easy outside opportunities, they’ll have a chance of fighting for the Eastern Conference crown.

Orlando Magic: Opponent second-chance opportunities

During the Steve Clifford era, the Magic were consistent. In each season they had a shared identity — they shot poorly from the field, turned the ball over sparingly, rarely crashed the offensive glass, limited opponent free throws and second-chance opportunities, and shot few free throws themselves.

The Magic were the second-best defense in averting second-chance opportunities last season, which largely kept their bottom-tier defense afloat.

With Jamahl Mosley at the helm, we should expect a change in style and focus on different principles than Clifford. But the Magic also haven’t substantially bolstered their talent, and their defense may well be as ineffective as last season.

Unless Mosley has another gambit in mind, the Magic will need to continue to focus on limiting second-chance opportunities to stabilize their defense.

Washington Wizards: Offensive shot profile

It’s tough to project what this Wizards team will do with an extensive overhaul to the roster in the offseason. Last year’s numbers, while indicative of the style that Scott Brooks will like his team to play, don’t portend much about this year’s group.

Reversing a mid-range heavy shot profile is one easily identifiable change that could help accelerate a sluggish offense that scored at a 111 offensive efficiency. Exchanging Westbrook, a known liability from outside, for a group of high-volume 3-point shooters could be the recipe to further showcase Bradley Beal‘s talent as an all-around playmaker.

The Wizards shot well both from the midrange and at the rim last season, a product of Beal’s high usage and strong efficiency from both areas. His outside shot took a significant dip, from an elite 39 percent to a respectable 36 percent. Maybe the focus on improved outside shooting will lift his efficiency as well.

The Wizards as a collective took less than 2,000 3-point attempts last season, roughly equatable to 2,150 attempts over an 82-game season. If the Wizards can get that mark closer to 2,300, they’ll have a better chance of maximizing their offensive talent.