NBA season preview: One crucial stat for every NBA team
Dallas Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis‘ defense
This one is no secret, but sometimes the simplest solutions have the most profound impact. The Mavericks’ defensive rating in Kristaps Porzingis’ 1,300 minutes last season increased five points per100 possessions to a spooky 119-point (in)efficiency last season.
In no universe, with Luka Doncic as the league’s MVP or otherwise, will the Mavericks surpass the first round of the playoffs with such a porous defensive figure from their starting center. In his other four seasons, through a combined 7,500 minutes, Porzingis-centered lineups have allowed at least three-points-per-100 fewer than when he sits.
The Mavericks will be hoping this trend resumes this season.
Houston Rockets: Efficient shooting
Expectations for the Rockets are low after last season’s 17-win showing, in which they finished in the bottom-five on both offense and defense.
A majority of Houston’s futility was due to their lack of talent, but some of it was also due to bad shooting luck. Last season, opponents shot 39 percent on 3-pointers against the Rockets, almost two full percentage points better than the league-average 37 percent rate.
The Rockets themselves shot sub-35 percent, an alarming spread that even the most talent-laden teams would have difficulty overcoming.
This season, we can better understand if these shooting woes are due to a scheme the Rockets have implemented, or if the basketball gods looked down upon the franchise after the unhappy ending with James Harden.
However the upcoming season unfolds for the Rockets, we can say with high probability that the shooting discrepancy between them and their opponents won’t be nearly as severe as it was through 72 games last year.
Memphis Grizzlies: Turnover differential
The young Grizzlies realized one of the league’s most difficult feats last season: being one of the ten stingiest teams with the ball and forcing turnovers at a top-10 rate. While hard to accomplish, such a feat nearly ensures that a team plays .500 ball or better.
Kyle Anderson, De’Anthony Melton, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman were sparkplugs that covered the complete 48 minutes of play for Memphis night in and night out. And with Ja Morrant on the floor, the Grizzlies turnover rate dropped 1.2 percent.
Reintegrating Jaren Jackson into the lineup after injury difficulties the past two seasons should determine if the Grizzlies can continue on the trajectory they set last year. Jackson fortifies a defense inside, but he doesn’t accelerate perimeter activity and fuel transition opportunities.
We still haven’t seen the ceiling of this Grizzlies team. With a young core that hasn’t been entirely healthy yet, the Grizzlies could realize the pinnacle of NBA defense — central rim protection with the length to force fortify the perimeter.
With Morrant controlling the offense and an all-encompassing defense, the Grizzlies could jump up the Western Conference rankings and make their first serious playoff run.
New Orleans Pelicans: Halfcourt defense
The Pelicans have been a difficult team to understand for some time now. The latest iteration, built around a generational talent in Zion Williamson, an ultra-efficient shot-maker in Brandon Ingram, and a random cast of serviceable supporters that have ranged from Steven Adams to Eric Bledsoe to Jonas Valunciunas, has been the NBA’s equivalent of a manic episode.
There are times when the offense hums with the fervor of a runaway train that can’t be stopped, and others when these Pelicans cannot coerce the ball through the hoop.
Defensively, the Pelicans have been much more consistent — poor at containing the perimeter and fortifying the paint. Pelican opponents scored one point per play in the halfcourt, equivalent to one of the league’s best offensive rates ever.
New Orleans faces a difficult start to the season with Williamson sidelined a minimum of two weeks, and new head coach Willie Green searching for continuity on the roster. If Coach Green can even slightly improve that league-worst half-court defensive rate, the Pelicans should be able to find some progress this season.
San Antonio Spurs: Mid-range efficiency
The Spurs, whether out of stubbornness or confidence, have refused to change their identity in the time since Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili departed. Those teams of the past won with the same game plan because they had the talent and depth to adhere to a conservative old-school approach.
Now, San Antonio is searching for a core set of contributors and a way to regain their prior success over the last two decades. They continue to follow Gregg Popovich’s principles, bucking the trend of spacing behind the 3-point arc to force more opportunities from outside.
The Spurs took the second-most mid-range field-goal attempts last season, a trend that’s likely to continue as long as Popovich is in charge. The scary part, if you’re a Spurs fan, is that last year’s team shot at an incredible rate from the midrange, and long midrange in particular.
This team could face difficulties if they regress to league average efficiency, given that they shot at an incredible clip to win just 33 games last season.