Nylon Calculus: Playing real or fake with early season NBA trends

1. Washington Wizards’ suffocating defense

The Wizards are the overachievers of the early NBA season, on the back of the NBA’s best-shot quality defense.

Through 16 games, Washington has afforded opponents the fewest 3-point attempts and forced the most midrange looks of any team. Not unlike his predecessor Scott Brooks, new head coach Wes Unseld Jr. has prioritized defensive shot quality to qualify the Wizards as an above-average defensive group.

The Wizards have been more successful at forcing tough shot attempts than generating turnovers and limiting attempts at the free-throw line. The game plan has worked thus far, but the Wizards have also benefited from subpar opponent shooting.

Opponents are currently making 67 percent of their attempts at the rim and 32 percent from outside, which ranks as the league’s worst shooting efficiency.

The most intriguing question is whether this fortunate shooting luck will matter over the course of an 82-game season as long as the Wizards continue to force opponents into difficult shots. Nearly 40 percent of all attempts come from the less fruitful mid-range area, including 13 percent from the long mid-range.

Washington has already played some of its top conference foes — including the Bucks, Heat, and Hawks — and they’re 3-3 in such matchups. It’s possible that their early-season schedule has juiced some of their success; their schedule so far ranks in the middle of the league in terms of difficulty.

Whether or not the Wizards can sustain their defensive success, they have been a successful team in clutch situations, according to NBA Stats. Washington is a perfect 8-0 in games when the score is within 5 points with 5 minutes or less remaining.

In 38 minutes of clutch gameplay, opponents have shot 32 percent from the field and 14 percent from outside, both of which are top-five leaguewide. The Wizards have also forced 14 turnovers in these games, the third-best rate, per NBA Stats.

Washington’s early-season success is unexpected, and there are signs that point to their defense benefiting from poor opponent shooting. But they have also competed with and beaten some of the conference’s top teams through sheer defensive force.

From what we’ve seen, we can’t rule out the possibility that Washington is more of a threat to the Eastern Conference crown than anyone anticipated. And while their defense may not be as strong as they’ve shown thus far, the expectation is that they will continue to excel at that end of the floor.