Farmers Insurance Open expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf at Torrey Pines

Breaking down our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for the Farmers Insurance Open as Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and more hit Torrey Pines this week.

Torrey Pines will be the setting for the PGA Tour this week as many of the world’s best golfers head to La Jolla and the course that hosted the US Open last year for the Farmers Insurance Open. Patrick Reed will be looking to defend his (controversial) title from last year. Of course, anyone who’s been watching the polarizing Reed of late won’t be betting on that.

Instead, we’re looking at a course that’s long at over 7,600 yards, meaning it requires distance both off the tee but also with mid-to-long irons for the second shots at what can be a difficult golf course, even at the Farmers Insurance Open and not a major championship.

This field is loaded with six of the top 10 ranked players in the world playing, highlighted by Jon Rahm (+700), Justin Thomas (+1200), Bryson DeChambeau (+2000) and many, many more. So where do we put our investments, both with our hearts and wallets? That’s where we come in as we try to rebound from a goose egg last week at The American Express.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

One and Done pick for Farmers Insurance Open: Ryan Palmer

We’re going with a safe floor after last week when we burned ourselves by taking Wolff for the One and Done pick and having him miss the cut. Palmer has tremendous history at Torrey Pines after playing this event the past four years with a pair of T2 finishes and no worse than T21 in that span. He has a safe floor and great upside here, which makes him feel like a sneaky play at this point in the season for One and Done leagues.

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Top 10 pick for Farmers Insurance Open: Sam Burns (+250)

When you look at the four times that Burns has played the Farmers, it’s not going to jump off the page. He’s missed the cut, finished outside the top 40 twice and was T18 last year. Yet, we saw him come on super, super strong last year and this event was kind of at the start of that.

Burns was actually in the final group at Torrey Pines last year and then collapsed with a 3-over Sunday round that plummeted him down the leaderboard. He’s even better nowadays than he was then, though, so I love the +250 odds for him, a player whose profile should fit well here, to come in and make some noise.

Pick to Win at Farmers Insurance Open: Xander Schauffele (+1600)

It wasn’t too long ago that the hometown kid, Schauffele, had some demons at Torrey Pines that he needed to exorcise. And I’ll let BetSided’s Iain MacMillan break down how he did that last year and why he’s a strong pick to win the Farmers this week:

"Ah yes, it’s time to look at my favorite golfer to bet on. Xander Schauffele is a San Diego guy and he views Torrey Pines as his home course, but he historically struggled at this event. He finally changed the narrative with a T2 here last year, and then followed it up with a T7 at the US Open. It’s only a matter of time before he gets a win at Torrey.His biggest strength is his play with his long irons. Heading into this week, he ranks first on the Tour in proximity from 175-200 yards out, and that distance is extremely important at Torrey Pines. I’m ready for him to break my heart once again."

Schauffele has also added distance off the tee that could help him at this venue this week and, if I’m hitching my wagon to one golfer this week (though you can never ignore Jon Rahm, it’s got to be Schauffele.

PGA Tour best bets for Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines

Note: These best bets were compiled before matchups were released on WynnBet. 

Sam Burns to Top 10 (+250) 

There’s no real need to rehash what we just said but Burns profiles perfectly for this course and his form over the past year has never been better. I love this number for him to show up strong and make the top 10 at the Farmers.

Aaron Wise to Top 20 (+350)

Wise has sneakily been playing some of the best golf of his career as of late and is also quietly a nice fit at this course. We’ll go back to Iain MacMillan, who sprinkled 0.5 units on Wise to win, as for why he likes him this week as well:

"Aaron Wise is going to slide in as my dark horse bet this week. He’s quietly having a pretty solid 2022 campaign, ranking seventh in total strokes gained and securing two top 10 finished. My main concerns with him is that he hasn’t competed here since 2019, and this is his first event since the Houston Open in November.Regardless, he ranks in the top 50 in the majority of key stats I’ve laid out, so I think he’s worth a sprinkle at 80/1 this week."

While I love that sprinkle at +8000 as well, banking on him having a top 20 finish while still getting relatively good odds for a player with this profile is enticing.

Jon Rahm to Top 5 (+175)

By comparison, these odds are pretty short and you might just consider an outright pick on Rahm if you like him to top five. With that said, this bet does remove some variance and Rahm is an absolute horse for Torrey Pines. He obviously won the US Open here last year but has also won the Farmers before in addition to having four top-10 finishes and three top-five finishes in five trips to this event. At plus odds, that’s hard to pass up.

Longshot pick to win: Luke List (+6600)

Much like many of the players the analytics community loves, List is a dynamo with his driver and irons — both of which fit Torrey Pines — but is a negative with the putter. With that said, he’s traditionally been noticeably better on Poa annua greens like we’ll see at this course, even if he’s still not elite by any stretch. That slight uptick, however, is enough for me to give him a look as a longshot pick to pop up and take the Farmers.

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