WM Phoenix Open expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Breaking down our WM Phoenix Open expert picks and best bets as Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland and more take the PGA Tour to TPC Scottsdale.

Now that Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach are in the rearview mirror, it’s time to turn our attention to the biggest party on the PGA Tour as we head to the raucous WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale for this week’s stop. That means desert golf, a stadium setting with high decibel levels for the 16th hole, and one of the most fun events on the calendar.

Last year, it was Brooks Koepka that outlasted a resurgent Jordan Spieth to capture the victory at this tournament. But that could be a much taller task for the 2022 WM Phoenix Open as the field is loaded with six of the top-10 ranked players in the world — and that doesn’t include the likes of Jordan Spieth, Koepka and Scottie Scheffler, among others.

To recap our PGA Tour expert picks from Pebble Beach, our One and Done pick of Berger withdrew before the tournament began, so that’s null. We had Patrick Cantlay to win and, though in contention, he fell short. Justin Rose to top 10 was ill-conceived, as were the rest of the best bets as well.

In short, we need to bounce back. We’re ready to do that with our picks this week for the WM Phoenix Open.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for WM Phoenix Open: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

One and Done pick for WM Phoenix Open: Sam Burns

Though he missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open in his last start, it’s hard not to love the way Sam Burns profiles at this event. He’s not a top-15 ranked player in the world for no reason and his tee-to-green game is absolutely stellar when he’s on. I’ll let BetSided’s Iain MacMillan take it from here on Burns as he’s one of his picks to win in Phoenix.

"One missed cut and then everyone has seemingly forgot about Sam Burns. Before his missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, he finished in the top 20 in all seven starts, including four top fives and a win at the Sanderson Farms Championship.Furthermore, the weakest part of his game is chipping and putting, which can be forgiven at TPC Scottsdale. He ranks 21st in both strokes gained: off-the-tee and strokes gained: approach, so I think we’re getting value on him at +3300."

Could Burns be used at another tournament for One and Done? Sure. But I like the bounce-back spot as a bit of a contrarian play for any league as well.

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Top 10 pick for WM Phoenix Open: Jon Rahm (-110)

Considering he’s the heavy favorite to win this tournament, this might be a copout. But the fact that Rahm is basically standard odds to make the top 10, something he’s done in 50 percent of his starts at previous iterations of the WM Phoenix Open, makes me think that this is an easy way to build the bankroll and that he should be considered a near certainty to make the top 10 (though I refuse to use the “L” word).

Pick to Win at WM Phoenix Open: Viktor Hovland (+1600)

It’s time to put some respect on Viktor Hovland’s name. Considering he’s the No. 3-ranked player in the world right now and has three wins in his last five starts worldwide, you’d think that he wouldn’t be at +1600 but here we are. His tee-to-green play has been absolutely immaculate as of late and his semi-erratic but improved short game won’t be as penal at TPC Scottsdale as at other places. It may be a sucker bet, but you can’t argue with the results he’s putting forth of late.

PGA Tour best bets for WM Phoenix Open

Note: These best bets were compiled before matchups were released on WynnBet. 

Talor Gooch to finish Top 20 (+225)

A top-20 finish isn’t all that out of the question with the way that Talor Gooch has been playing of late with a win and two other top-20 showings in his last five starts. His course history at TPC Scottsdale hasn’t been great, but the former Oklahoma State standout has shown dramatic improvement with his complete game, specifically with his iron play, of late that should help bolster him into hitting this at plus money.

Jon Rahm to Top 5 (+175)

One of the biggest criticisms of Rahm — if there are any that are valid — is that he’s always in contention but hasn’t won since the U.S. Open. That’s why we’re not taking the outright winner bet with him but, instead, are looking at the top-five finish. He’s been in the top five in two of his last three starts (T-14 in the other). Though he only has one top-five finish at the Phoenix Open, he’s never finished worse than T-16 in six tries. I like for him to show up on the first page of the leaderboard with relative ease at +175.

Longshot pick to win: Max Homa (+6600)

Frankly, this feels like Max Homa is just mispriced but, if the oddsmakers are going to put him at longshot value, who am I to not take advantage of that opportunity with a sprinkle on him to win outright? We know he has the upside to win and, even if his form hasn’t been great as of late, his ball-striking is a strength of his game. If he turns it on, he can win in a strong field such as this and I’m willing to take a look at Homa with these odds at a place where he’s finished T-6 before.

Also, Gooch at +5500 isn’t quite sleeper or longshot range, but I like that value a lot as well.

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