Arnold Palmer Invitational expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

The Arnold Palmer Invitational brings a terrific field to Bay Hill this week and we have our PGA Tour expert picks for one of golf’s best events. 

The Florida Swing continues with a trip to vaunted Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. After withdrawing earlier this week, Bryson DeChambeau — he of driving it over the lake at Bay Hill fame, among other things — won’t be back in the field to defend his title. So that means we have one less heavy hitter to consider in our PGA Tour expert picks for the golf this week.

One of the reasons that the field at The Honda Classic last week was a bit on the weaker side was the big-name players readying for Bay Hill and the API. Now, we have Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler and many, many more are back in the field this week. That gives us a lot to run through.

But before that, we look back at our PGA Tour expert picks from The Honda. Keith Mitchell finished T-9 with $194,000 as our One and Done pick, so not too bad there. Louis Oosthuizen was a whiff as a top-10 pick but Shane Lowry as a winner pick was oh-so-close to cashing (frankly, it still stings). And lastly, none of our best bets cashed with Mito Pereira and Billy Horschel not performing up to par.

Onward and upward, it’s time for our PGA Tour expert picks this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for Arnold Palmer Invitational: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

One and Done pick for Arnold Palmer Invitational: Rory McIlroy

There will be more on Rory McIlroy shortly, but I’m pulling out a big gun at the API this week for the One and Done pick. He’s a terrific fit and is one of BetSided’s Iain MacMillan’s picks to win this week. I’ll let him explain why.

"I can’t pass up betting on Rory McIlroy this week. He’s the 2018 winner of the event, and Bay Hill has historically been one of the best courses for him in his career. It makes sense why, when you consider this track is designed to give good drivers of the golf ball a huge boost. McIlroy leads all golfers in the field in strokes gained per round at Bay Hill, averaging +2.69.He’s also quietly been in fantastic form, despite not playing a lot in 2022. Since winning the CJ Cup in October, he’s gone T6, 18, T12, 3, and then a T10 at the Genesis Open two weeks ago."

With an elevated status event that pays big time, you have to break out a big name, so that’s what I’m doing.

Top 10 pick for Arnold Palmer Invitational: Tyrell Hatton (+300)

We haven’t seen much of Hatton stateside lately but he’s been playing terrific golf worldwide with three top-10 finishes in four starts since the Hero World Challenge. The fact that he’s not been that visible to most PGA Tour fans of late actually means better value for you at +300 and I like his game and form to perform well at this track and finishing inside the top 10 again this week.

Pick to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational: Rory McIlroy (+1200)

Told you that Rory would pop back up. I’m in lockstep with Iain about McIlroy being in a great spot to win this week. His length off of the tee is obviously a great fit for Bay Hill and he has plenty of past success here too. A big reason for that is the simple fact that the big struggle with his game has been his wedge play and dialing in distances there. That is far less in play at the API with the length of the course, making this a place where his current weakness could be mitigating. When that happens, he has the rest of the game to win.

PGA Tour best bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Rory McIlroy (+110) over Jon Rahm

This is the first week in 2022 that the matchups have been available on Tuesday, so I’m able to give you this one as a best bet. Fading Jon Rahm is never a comfortable proposition but it’s one worth looking at hard. Obviously, I like McIlroy to win this week but Rahm’s around the green game and putting have been hurting him of late and that’s a bad recipe at Bay Hill. Give me Rory at plus odds to just beat one golfer — even if it’s the No. 1-ranked player in the world.

Luke List to finish Top 20 (+250)

It’s been unimpressive for List since his first career PGA Tour win with a T-53 in Phoenix followed by a missed cut at the Genesis. But much like Rory, I love List’s length off the tee and his ability to dial in well with his irons. The putter is always a concern, which is why this isn’t a top-10 play. But for a top 20, I think that’s well within reason for this fit for List.

Chris Kirk to Top 10 (+600)

Somehow, I thought a Chris Kirk play was going to be sneaky this week with people writing his success at Honda off as a weaker field. That was not the case. Iain MacMillan of BetSided is on Kirk as a winner pick too at +8000. I love that sprinkle, but a top 10 at +600 ain’t too bad either. Here’s what Iain had to say about Kirk.

"If I asked you who has averaged the most birdies at Bay Hill over the past five years, there’s a zero percent chance you’d guess Chris Kirk, but that’s surprisingly the correct answer.Not only that, but he’s been playing some solid golf in recent weeks, including a T7 finish at last week’s Honda Classic and a T14 finish at the WM Phoenix Open the week before. He ranks 41st in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 18th in both strokes gained: tee-to-green and strokes gained: total, and 25th in 200+ yard par 3 efficiency. Finally, he’s finished 15th or better at this event in three straight starts."

Good form, good course history, and a guy who just fits the course. Yeah, that’ll play at these odds.

Longshot pick to win: Taylor Pendrith (+17500)

Let’s get wild. Don’t empty the bank account here, but I love a sprinkle on Pendrith this week. He’s another long-hitter (15th in driving distance on the PGA Tour this season) who has performed well at tracks that require that, evidenced by a T-16 at Torrey Pines for the Farmers this year. Moreover, he’s popped of late, even finishing solidly at T-25 last week at The Honda, a place that shouldn’t necessarily fit his game. That combination of form and fit makes him an intriguing option to just sprinkle on a tad in hopes that he’s able to become the fifth first-time winner this season.

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